1. A Time of Change: What challenges? Peadar Kirby Schumacher summer school, 14 th June 2012

2. Introduction About the only thing we agree on is that we are in crisis: About the only thing we agree on is that we are in crisis: But what is the nature of this crisis or crises? But what is the nature of this crisis or crises? What are the causes? What are the causes? What should we do about it all? What should we do about it all? Need to focus on the specific dimensions of the crisis as it manifests itself in this country Need to focus on the specific dimensions of the crisis as it manifests itself in this country Place it in a wider historical context that keeps a focus on the island as a whole Place it in a wider historical context that keeps a focus on the island as a whole Challenge us to imagine a very different future for Irish society Challenge us to imagine a very different future for Irish society

3. This talk In this talk I propose to: In this talk I propose to: Distinguish various layers of the present situation Distinguish various layers of the present situation Identify the causes Identify the causes Argue that they signify a time of fundamental historical change Argue that they signify a time of fundamental historical change Place these in a wider historical context Place these in a wider historical context Suggest some possibilities that might emerge Suggest some possibilities that might emerge Hopefully this will help to inform our discussions and learning Hopefully this will help to inform our discussions and learning

4. Crisis, what crisis? Part of our crisis we share with our EU neighbours but a large part is very particular to Ireland Part of our crisis we share with our EU neighbours but a large part is very particular to Ireland Immediate origins are in a financial crisis which has generated a wider and very deep economic recession Immediate origins are in a financial crisis which has generated a wider and very deep economic recession But these crises derive from a deeper crisis of a particular model of development: But these crises derive from a deeper crisis of a particular model of development: A neoliberal or free-market model: A neoliberal or free-market model: Low tax road to development Low tax road to development Reliance on free market, especially on global capital Reliance on free market, especially on global capital State’s role to create an attractive environment so regulation kept very light State’s role to create an attractive environment so regulation kept very light

5. What is particularly ours Two dimensions are uniquely ours: Two dimensions are uniquely ours: The crisis of our model has revealed a crisis of our political and administrative systems that have proven incapable of managing change The crisis of our model has revealed a crisis of our political and administrative systems that have proven incapable of managing change This crisis coincides with another major crisis deriving from the collapse of the authority of the Catholic Church: This crisis coincides with another major crisis deriving from the collapse of the authority of the Catholic Church: Undermines not just a core institution of our society but our central system of values and identity: who are we? Undermines not just a core institution of our society but our central system of values and identity: who are we?

6. Causes A tendency to moralise: A tendency to moralise: The greed and shortsightedness of elites The greed and shortsightedness of elites Problems with this reading: Problems with this reading: Exonerates us, the society, from any blame Exonerates us, the society, from any blame Individualises the problem and neglects its structural nature Individualises the problem and neglects its structural nature Encapsulated in arguments for a ‘second republic’ and a developmental social democratic model Encapsulated in arguments for a ‘second republic’ and a developmental social democratic model On this reading, we need a new beginning On this reading, we need a new beginning

7. Key challenges Crises point to a moment of fundamental change: Crises point to a moment of fundamental change: A new polity and political economy model A new polity and political economy model Requires a new culture and practice of politics Requires a new culture and practice of politics Begs the question of what are our fundamental values Begs the question of what are our fundamental values Brings us back to something akin to nation building again Brings us back to something akin to nation building again All in the context of the enormous twin challenges of climate change and peak oil: All in the context of the enormous twin challenges of climate change and peak oil: These are remarkably absent in public debate but their imperative will become ever more demanding on public policy and on social practices These are remarkably absent in public debate but their imperative will become ever more demanding on public policy and on social practices

8. Historical context Back to settlement of 100 years ago: Back to settlement of 100 years ago: Established a society based on two antagonistic nationalisms strongly based on religious identities: Established a society based on two antagonistic nationalisms strongly based on religious identities: A Catholic nationalism versus a Protestant unionism A Catholic nationalism versus a Protestant unionism Both are now in terminal crisis for somewhat different reasons: Both are now in terminal crisis for somewhat different reasons: More fundamental collapse of dominant institutions in Republic: FF, Church, banks More fundamental collapse of dominant institutions in Republic: FF, Church, banks But North faces challenge of weaning itself off British subvention in context of political settlement But North faces challenge of weaning itself off British subvention in context of political settlement Forces pushing both states together may be becoming stronger than those that pushed them apart for 100 years Forces pushing both states together may be becoming stronger than those that pushed them apart for 100 years Fundamental question both face is what model of development might serve them best Fundamental question both face is what model of development might serve them best

9. Possibilities I What new identity can bind Irish society? What new identity can bind Irish society? Difficult to see it based on religion in any central way Difficult to see it based on religion in any central way Framework for conceiving of how new can emerge: Framework for conceiving of how new can emerge: Ideas: from where are they emerging? Ideas: from where are they emerging? Interests: what models are seen as best serving people’s interests Interests: what models are seen as best serving people’s interests Institutions: how to build institutions embodying these models Institutions: how to build institutions embodying these models Nexus between ideas, interests, institutions cluster around models Nexus between ideas, interests, institutions cluster around models

10. Possibilities II Main struggle can be conceived of as being between three different models: Main struggle can be conceived of as being between three different models: Re-constituting the neoliberal model: Re-constituting the neoliberal model: State playing a subservient role to private capital, whether national or global State playing a subservient role to private capital, whether national or global Implies weak social outcomes: poverty, inequality Implies weak social outcomes: poverty, inequality Moving towards a developmentalist social democratic model: Moving towards a developmentalist social democratic model: State playing a more active role to foster an innovative domestic economy generating sufficient resources for robust social development State playing a more active role to foster an innovative domestic economy generating sufficient resources for robust social development Create a more equal society and stronger public space Create a more equal society and stronger public space

11. Possibilities III Peak oil and climate change place huge question marks over viability of these models Peak oil and climate change place huge question marks over viability of these models Challenge us to develop a new model, moving beyond the model of industrial society Challenge us to develop a new model, moving beyond the model of industrial society Towards a ecological or ethical socialist model: Towards a ecological or ethical socialist model: Principle of local provisioning Principle of local provisioning Strong state involvement to restrain market and make it conform to ecological imperatives Strong state involvement to restrain market and make it conform to ecological imperatives Strong democratic and participatory mechanisms to hold state in check Strong democratic and participatory mechanisms to hold state in check