1. 1. Assess role of facilitating events as “structural” factors. 2. Sum up overall importance of structural factors. 3. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them. 4. Understand model of cycle of mobilization.

2. 1. Economic crisis 2. Losing a major military conflict

3.  Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes.  Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.

4.  Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.

5.  Economic Crisis › E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979  Oil-importing countries suffered.  Argentina, Greece.

6.  Loss of Major Military Conflict › Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas) › Greece (Cyprus) › Portugal (colonial wars) › USSR (Afghanistan)

8. aka “Transitology”

9. ??

10.  Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition.  Sense of freedom, loss of fear.

11.  Democratization may work better if liberalization precedes democratization (Huntington). › E.g. South Africa.

12. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy ReformersStandpatters Radical Extremists Moderates

13. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

14.  Hard-liners (standpatters) in government: › Hard-line apartheid supporters in white minority government.  Soft-liners (reformers) in government: › E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime unsustainable.  Moderates in opposition: › Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political procedural democracy, not economic.  Radicals in opposition: › Demand socioeconomic equality or African-run regime. › Willing to use violence.

15. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

16. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

17. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

18. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

19.  If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.  If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.  If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.

20. Initial Liberalization “Resurrection of Civil Society” - protests, disorder, demands Demobilization of Civil Society Soft-liners believe they can keep control of transition Hard-liners’ fears of disorder seem confirmed; their allies increase – fear of coup As fear of coup increases, opposition becomes more vocal People become tired and run out of resources; Soft-liners and moderates have become majority; negotiating over details rather than regime type