1. 1. Assess role of civic culture and facilitating events as “structural” factors. 2. Sum up overall importance of structural factors. 3. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them.

3.  “Civic political culture” necessary for stable democracy.  Citizens: › Feel competent › Have urge to participate › Are tolerant of diversity › Are positive towards their political institutions  Problem: causal direction between democracy and civic culture?

4.  Alexis de Tocqueville: Democracy in America  Robert Putnam: Making Democracy Work  “civic community” in northern Italy

5. Civic CultureDemocracy

6. 1. Economic crisis 2. Losing a major military conflict

7.  Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes.  Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.

8.  Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.

9.  Economic Crisis › E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979  Oil-importing countries suffered.  Argentina, Greece.

10.  Loss of Major Military Conflict › Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas) › Greece (Cyprus) › Portugal (colonial wars) › USSR (Afghanistan)

12. aka “Transitology”

13. ??

14.  Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition.  Sense of freedom, loss of fear.

15. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy ReformersStandpatters Radical Extremists Moderates

16. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

17.  Hard-liners (standpatters) in government: › Hard-line apartheid supporters in white minority government (verkrampte faction of National Party, Conservative Party).  Soft-liners (reformers) in government: › E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime unsustainable.  Moderates in opposition: › Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political procedural democracy, not economic.  Radicals in opposition: › Demand socioeconomic equality (Communist Party) or African-run regime (Inkatha Freedom Party). › Willing to use violence.

18. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

19. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

20. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

21. Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

22.  If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.  If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.  If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.