1. Crafting Policy Regimes that Advance Economic and Social Rights By Susan Randolph & Elizabeth Kaletski This research is funded in part by NSF grant # 1061457 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012

2. Objectives  1. Adapt the SERF Index to take into account  Structural characteristics  historical policy legacy  Separately for each component Right Index. 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012

3. Objectives  2. Identify policy regimes promoting State’s compliance with their obligations of result under the ICESCR  ↑ policymakers’ ability to craft policy regimes meeting commitments under the ICESCR  provide advocates with information on policies that undermine ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012

4. SERF Methodology: APF Frontier 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 Achievement Possibility Frontier for Primary School Completion Rate

5. Construction of the SERF Index Indicator Performance Score 2 APF 2 Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator Performance Score 1 APF 1 Right Index Average SERF Index Weighted Average of Right Indices Wake Forest University, February 16,20125

6. Basic Approach 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  R ri = α + β s S si + γ p P pi + δ c C ci + ε i  Where  R r is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)  S s is a vector of s structural characteristics  P p is a vector of p policy variables  C c is a vector of c control variables  α is the intercept,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and C, respectively  ε is the error term and  i is an index for country  Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data

7. Factors influencing Resource Needs. 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Structural & Historical Policy Legacy Factors  Economies of Scale in Infrastructure provision  Women’s empowerment & knowledge  Income inequality  Malaria Prevalence & Risk

8. Economies of Scale in Infrastructure Provision 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicator: ruralpop = rural population as a % of total population  Data Source: World Development Indicators

9. Women’s empowerment & knowledge 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicator: GenderIneqPrimary = the ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) lagged 10 years  Range:  0 (only males in primary school) to  100 (equal % males and females enrolled)  >100 (higher % females than males enrolled).  Data Source: UNESCO via World Development Indicators

10. Income Inequality 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicator: Gini = Gini Coefficient  Range: 0 (no inequality) to 100  Data Sources:  Primary: UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database, Version 2.0c, May 2008  Secondary: World Development Indicators

11. Malaria & HIV Prevalence & Risk 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicator Malaria Risk: popmalaria = % population living in areas with malaria  Range: 0 (none) to 1 (100% of population)  Data source: Interpolated from Gallup, John L. and Jeffrey Sachs, with Andrew Mellinger, “Geography and Economic Development

12. Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk on Ability to Ensure ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork ruralpop-0.180***-0.0365-0.159***-0.284***-0.273***-0.186** (0.0453)(0.0583)(0.0362)(0.0464)(0.0623)(0.0817) genderineqprimary0.254***0.402***0.405***0.318***0.204***-0.0737 (0.0513)(0.0768)(0.0451)(0.0608)(0.0747)(0.0974) gini-0.418***-0.788***-0.307***-0.592***-0.239*-0.411** (0.0896)(0.109)(0.0670)(0.0866)(0.126)(0.162) popmalaria-9.051***-11.82***-12.65***-13.25***-5.551*-13.57*** (2.210)(3.427)(1.986)(2.725)(3.197)(4.419) Constant80.54***69.24***65.59***89.38***82.50***115.3*** (6.493)(8.637)(5.136)(6.827)(9.177)(11.65) Observations169308278319215230 R-squared0.5070.4170.6700.5990.2740.154 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10

13. Things to Note 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  All 4 factors have statistically significant impact on SERF Index & underlying right indices  Each factor has the greatest impact on a different right  Ruralpop  housing  GenderInequPrimary  health  Gini  Education  Popmalaria  work

14. Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk on Ability to Ensure ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VariableSerfEducationHealthHousingFoodWor k Ruralpop (+15.65) -2.77---2.61-4.12-3.99-2.72 Genderineqprimary (-21.2) -5.34-8.44-8.76-6.38-4.16-- Gini (+6.5) -2.6-4.94-2.28-3.27-1.18-2.11 Popmalaria (+0.567) -5.14-5.88-7.01-6.90-3.12-7.58

15. Adjusting the Benchmarks to Reflect Structural Characteristics & Historical Policy Legacy 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Adjustment Approach:  Use the regression equations to compute countries predicted scores  New performance index score:  (Actual Score/predicted Score) 100 = % benchmark achieved

16. Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Lessons from adjusting benchmarks to account for countries’ structural characteristics and historical legacy.  policies enhancing rural productivity and employment opportunities,  policies promoting women’s empowerment and women’s education,  development strategies promoting equitable growth,  and policies focused on eradicating malaria and HIV are indicated.

17. Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Other Issues Considered So Far  Political stability  Institutions  Democratic political institutions  Role Government Provision  Government Expenditures  Foreign Resource Flows  Foreign aid  Stabilization and Structural Adjustment  Development Strategy  Resource Extraction

18. Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Approach  R ri = α + β s S si + γ p P pi + δ c C ci + ε i  Where  R r is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)  S s is a vector of s structural characteristics P p is a vector of p policy variables  C c is a vector of c control variables  α is the intercept,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and C, respectively  ε is the error term and  i is an index for country  Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data

19. 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 SerfEducationHealthHousingFoodWork Political Stabilityns Democratic Inst.ns+ + Gov. Expendituresns +++ ns Foreign Resources ODA++ns++ns++ World Bank Structural Adj. ++ ns IMF Structural Adj. ns-- -ns Development Strategy Resource Extraction ns - --

20. 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Thank you

21. Political Stability 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicators:  Conflict10: dummy variable = 0 if free of major conflict in previous 10 years  Source: Uppsala Conflict Data program and Center for the Study of Civil Wars, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook: Version 4-2009  Conflict5: dummy variable = 0 if free of major conflict in previous 10 years  Source same as above  Wgi_politicalstability: Worldwide Governance Indicator Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terriorism.  (Perceptions of likelihood government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means)  Higher implies more stable  Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011

22. Political Stability 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork Political Stability wgi_politicalstability -1.589-1.569-0.1090.7530.9821.101 (1.160)(1.527)(0.966)(1.149)(1.554)(2.248) Observations140232211239171182 R-squared0.5370.4350.6410.6040.3200.159 R-squared0.5370.4410.6500.6050.3120.156 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10

23. Democratic Political Institutions 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicators  Wgi_voiceandaccountability: Worldwide Governance Indicator Voice and Accountability  (Perceptions of extent to which a country’s citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, there is freedom of expression, association, and the media)  Higher score implies greater voice  Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011  Genderinequalityparliament: % seats held by women in national parliaments,  Source: United Nations Millennium Development Goals Indicators

24. Democratic Political Institutions 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork Democratic Political Institutions wgi_voiceandaccount -0.3101.2571.0261.7791.1554.408* (1.450)(1.644)(1.046)(1.246)(1.817)(2.586) Observations140232211239171182 R-squared0.5300.4340.6430.6070.3200.171 genderinequalityparliament 0.1050.223*-0.03140.106-0.000278-0.00183 (0.133)(0.134)(0.0887)(0.103)(0.159)(0.247) Observations139229208236169179 R-squared0.5370.4410.6500.6050.3120.156 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10

25. Role of Government Provision 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicators  Govexpendtotal10 & Govexpendtotal5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively, of general government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services as % of GDP.  Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators  Govexpendedu10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively, of total public spending on education as % of GDP.  Source: UNESCO  Govexpendhealth10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively of public health expenditure as % of GDP.  Source: World Health Organization National health Account database supplemented by country data via World Development Indicators.

26. Role of Government Provision 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork govexpendtotal50.07640.0793-0.418***0.378**0.515**0.271 (0.146)(0.196)(0.110)(0.152)(0.202)(0.264) Observations167301270308208224 R-squared0.5100.4090.6900.6020.2900.136 govexpendtotal50.0764-0.0311-0.705***0.378**0.515**0.271 (0.146)(0.395)(0.154)(0.152)(0.202)(0.264) govexpendedu50.354 (1.134) govexpendhealth51.049* (0.589) Observations167169206308208224 R-squared0.5100.3960.6810.6020.2900.136 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10

27. Foreign Resource Flows 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicators  Oda5 and oda10: five and ten year annual average of net official development assistance (ODA) received as a % of GNI.  Source: World Development indicators  Wbsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received a World Bank structural adjustment loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned.  Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press.  Imfsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received an IMF loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned.  Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press

28. Foreign Resource Flows 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork oda100.219**0.227 - 0.351***-0.04620.300**0.874*** (0.0935)(0.156)(0.0908)(0.135)(0.138)(0.189) Observations166228219237202208 R-squared0.5010.3080.6190.4050.2470.179 wbsap5.828**7.324***4.604***1.2745.067-0.750 (2.253)(2.811)(1.737)(2.272)(3.093)(3.917) imfsap-3.047-9.922***-3.930**-4.361*-5.1885.555 (2.403)(2.934)(1.812)(2.366)(3.372)(4.397) Observations168305277317214229 R-squared0.5220.4390.6800.6010.2830.158 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10

29. Development Strategy: Resource Extraction 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012  Indicators  Resourcerents5 and resourcerents10: Five and ten year, respectively annual average of total natural resource rents as a % of GDP. (measured as the sum of oil, natural gas, coal, mineral and forest rents.)  Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, from World Bank “The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the new Millennium.”, 2011

30. Development Strategy: Resource Extraction 3/23/2012New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012 VARIABLESserfeducationhealthhousingfoodwork resourcerents5-0.0577-0.0388-0.0809-0.130*-0.125-0.398*** (0.0773)(0.0930)(0.0536)(0.0721)(0.0877)(0.135) Observations169304277315214229 R-squared0.5080.4080.6730.5950.2810.183 Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10