2. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) 979-7354, rnowacki@lucent.com

3. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” - H. M. Warner, 1927 ☼ “What do 13 people in Seattle know that we don’t know?” - Ross Perot, EDS, 1980

4. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ Challenges of Predicting the Future viewing future through filters (optimist/pessimist) linear forecasting (future as more of the same) discontinuous changes ☼ Scenario Planning - tool to look into the future

5. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT ☼ A Short History of Scenario Planning Emerged in Military Planning - 50’s Hudson Institute (thinking about unthinkable) - 60’s Applied by Royal Dutch Shell and SRI - 70’s Consulting Companies Established - 80’s, 90’s Used by : GE, AT&T, Lucent, Erickson, Siemens Applied to Customer Support Industry by the Consortium - 1999 Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future

6. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT ☼ Definition: Scenarios are stories which describe different, though equally plausible, futures. They are a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments. They are combination of estimation of what might happen and assumptions about what could happen, but they are not forecasts of what will happen. Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future

7. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Articulate WHAT question we are asking about the future. (example: What are the customer support and service business models of the future?) Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 1

8. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Identify Driving Forces - technology - economics - society - politics - customer expectations Rank and Analyze Driving Forces Which are predetermined? Which are uncertain? Which are critical uncertainties? Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 2

9. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Driving Force: Moore’s Law Driving Force: Moore’s Law 1900 1940 1920 1960 1980 2000 10 -10 10 -5 10 5 5 1900 1940 1920 1960 1980 2000 10 -10 10 -5 10 5 5 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 10 15 10 20 10 30 10 35 10 40 10 25 One Insect Brain One Mouse Brain One Human Brain Brains of all Humans Kurzweil, Raymond, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking Penguin, 1999 Limit of Moore’s Law? (Calculations per Second bought by $1,000) - Optical - DNA - Quantum - Etc.

10. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Discover Discontinuities - disrupting technologies - crossing the chasm - impact of possible inventions Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 3

11. Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Create Scenarios - emerge into a possible future - what does it look like? - narrative description - what is inevitable? - what is uncertain? - what is critical? - redo and redo and redo Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future ☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 4