1. Center for Risk Communication
Core Slides
Dr. Vincent T. Covello
Director
Center for Risk Communication
New York, New York
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

2. Definitions “Threats to that which we value.” Risks: Definition
Risk Communication: Definition
“The exchange of information about risks.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

3. Risk Communication Goals
enhance knowledge and understanding
build trust and credibility
encourage appropriate behaviors and levels of concern
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

4. Risk Communication: Media Goals (CDC)
Be first, be right, be credible
Inform, not inflame
Address rumors, inaccuracies, and misperceptions quickly

5. Risk Communication Hypotheses
“Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.”
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.”
“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

6. Risk Communication Hypotheses
“Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.”
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.”
“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

7. “When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”
=========
Rule of 3
“When people are stress or upset, they typically can only process 3 messages at a time.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

8. Risk Communication Hypotheses
“Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.”
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.”
“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

9. Stakeholder Predictability
“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”
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10. Stakeholder Predictability
“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”
“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

11. Stakeholder Predictability
“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”
“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster”
“65 Most Frequently Asked Questions about Bird Flu and Pandemic Influenza” (pandemicflu.gov)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

12. Exercise
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13. “77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists and the Public in a Disaster”
Types of Questions:
Factual Questions
Emotionally Charged Questions
Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

14. Types of Questions Factual Questions Emotionally Charged Questions
Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

15. Challenges/Traps/Pitfalls
False Negative Questions
Guarantee Questions
What If (Worst Case Scenario) Questions
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

16. Challenge Questions: Do’s and Don’ts
Don’t repeat a false negative
Do repeat the opposite of the false negative
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

17. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High stress situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

18. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High stress situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

19. Risk Communication Literature
8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals
2000 Books
Reviews of the Literature by Major Scientific Organizations (e.g., National Academy of Sciences)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

20. Risk Communication Literature: Research Based Resources
Dr. R. Hyer and Dr. V. Covello
Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies:
A World Health Organization Handbook
World Health Organization, United Nations: Geneva, April 2007 (
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

21. Resources
Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies
A Comprehensive Bibliography of Peer Reviewed Articles
Over 1000 Do’s and Don’ts (With Explanations)
A Section on Message Mapping
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

22. Resources
Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies
A Comprehensive Bibliography of Peer Reviewed Articles
Over 1000 Do’s and Don’ts (With Explanations)
A Section on Message Mapping and Message Mapping Templates
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

23. Stakeholder Question or Concern:
Message Map
Key Message
9 words on average
Key Message
9 words on average
Key Message
9 words on average
Support-ing Info. 1.1
Support-ing
Info. 2.1
Support-ing Info. 3.1
Support-ing Info.. 1.2
Support-ing Info. 2.2
Support-ing Info. 3.2
Support-ing Info. 1.3
Support-ing Info. 2.3 :
Support-ing Info. 3.3
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

24. Message Mapping
Department of Health and Human Services/CDC: Pre-Event Maps for Avian Flu/Pandemic Influenza (
Multi-State Partnership for Agricultural Security: Message Maps for 30 Agricultural Scenarios
3. Environmental Protection Agency: Message Maps for 6 Water/Groundwater Contamination Scenarios (
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

25. KDG Template (Overarching Message Map)
(Know, Do, Go)
Key Message 1: What is most important for people to know
Key Message 2: What is most important for people to do
Key Message 3: Where can people go to get credible information
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

26. Risk Communication Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

27. Risk Perceptions (Fear Factors)
Lower Concern/Fear
Under one’s control
Trustworthy sources
Fair/large benefits
Higher Concern/Fear
Controlled by others
Untrustworthy sources
Unfair/few or unclear benefits Involuntary
Teaching Points:
Twenty risk perception variables have been studied
Depending upon the presence or absence of these factors, people will likely find the associated risks either acceptable or unacceptable
Decisions about the acceptability of risks are value based, not data based
These factors are cumulative in effect and can serve to either diminish or amplify the perception of a risk
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

28. Message Mapping Exercise
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

29. Risk Communication Literature
8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals
2000 Books
Reviews of the Literature by Major Scientific Organizations (e.g., National Academy of Sciences)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

30. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

31. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

32. The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

33. The APP Template Planning and Preparation
“If I had all day to cut down a large tree, I would use most of the day sharpening my axe.”
Abraham Lincoln
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

34. Stakeholder Predictability
“For most high stress situations, over 95 percent of stakeholder concerns and questions can be predicted in advance.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

35. Communication Regret
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36. The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

37. Stakeholders/Partners Stakeholder Questions and Concerns
Anticipate
Scenarios
Stakeholders/Partners
Stakeholder Questions and Concerns
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

38. The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

39. Prepare Messages Messengers Means APP Template
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

40. Prepare Messages Messengers Means APP Template
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

41. Prepare Messages Overarching Message (e.g., KDG)
Informational Messages
Challenge Question Messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

42. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

43. The CCO Template Compassion Conviction Optimism
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44. Caring/Empathy
“When people are stressed and upset, they want to know that you care before they care what you know.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

45. Trust Factors in High Stress Situations Competence/ Expertise 15-20%
Assessed
in first 9-30 seconds
Listening/ Caring/
Empathy/Compassion
50%
Competence/ Expertise %
All
Other Factors
15-20%
Honesty/ Openness %
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

46. Risk Communication Models
The Trust Determination Model
The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model
The Negative Dominance Model
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

47. The CCO Template Compassion Conviction Optimism
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

48. Mayor Giuliani, 9/11
“The number of casualties is more than any of us can bear ultimately.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

49. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

50. The 27/9/3 Template 27 words 9 seconds 3 messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

51. Attention Span/Mental Noise
“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”
=========
Rule of 3
“When people are stress or upset, they typically can only process 3 messages at a time.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

52. Risk Communication: Attention Span Research
“The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information”
George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University)
The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

53. Risk Communication: Attention Span Research
“The Magic Number Three, Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on Our Capacity for Receiving, Processing, and Remembering Information in High Stress Situations”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

54. High Stress Situations: Rule of 3 Shift
Low Stress Situations:
Brain can hold on average
7 messages
High Stress Situations:
3 messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

55. The 27/9/3 Template 27 words 9 seconds 3 messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

56. 27/9/3 Template
27 words
(total of 27 words for all three key messages, with each key message averaging 9 words in length)
9 seconds
3 messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

57. 27/9/3 Exercise: Tony Blair, Prime Minister 7/7/05 London Terrorist Bombing
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

58. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

59. Risk Perceptions TBC Template (Trust, Benefits, Control)
Key Message 1: Trust Message
Key Message 2: Benefits Message
Key Message 3: Control Message
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

60. Risk Perception Literature
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

61. Risk Perceptions “Perception equals reality.”
“That which is perceived as real is real in its consequences.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

62. “Facts about risk appear to play little or no role in determining public fears, perceptions, and concerns about risks.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

63. Risk Perceptions (Fear Factors)
Lower Concern/Fear
Trustworthy sources
Large benefits
Under one’s control
Voluntary
Fair
Natural origin
Children not victims
Higher Concern/Fear
Untrustworthy sources
Few or unclear benefits
Controlled by others
Involuntary
Unfair
Human origin
Children as victims
Teaching Points:
Twenty risk perception variables have been studied
Depending upon the presence or absence of these factors, people will likely find the associated risks either acceptable or unacceptable
Decisions about the acceptability of risks are value based, not data based
These factors are cumulative in effect and can serve to either diminish or amplify the perception of a risk
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

64. Risk Perception/Fear Factors
Trust
Listening/Caring
Competence/Expertise
Honesty/Transparency
Benefits/Fairness
Societal
Community
Personal
Control
Choice
Voice
Knowledge (e.g. things for people to do)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

65. PERCEPTIONS OF RISK WEIGHTING FACTORS Factor Weight Trust 2000
Benefit
Control
Teaching Points:
These are the three most powerful risk perception factors
In many cases these can be managed to mitigate toward more effective communication
Give example
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

66. Risk Perceptions
“The more you can do to increase perceived trust, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

67. Risk Perceptions
“The more you can do to increase perceived benefits and fairness, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

68. Risk Perceptions
“The more you can do to increase perceived control, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

69. Flower Pots/Bird Baths
Key Word
Message Map
West Nile Virus Map
Key Message
“Remove Standing Water”
Key Message
“Wear Protective Clothing”
Key Message
“Use Insect Repellent”
1.1
Unattended swimming pools
2.1
Long Sleeves
3.1
DEET
1.2
Flower Pots/Bird Baths
2.2
Long Pants
3.2
23%
1.3
Cup of Water
2.3
Dusk and Dawn :
3.3
Medical Research
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

70. Seven Step Model Empathy/Caring Key Messages (3) Key Message 1
Repeat Key Messages (3)
Sources of Further Information
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

71. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

72. Risk Communication Templates
APP
CCO
27/9/3
KDG
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

73. Risk Communication Literature: Templates
KDG
APP
CCO
27/9/3
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

74. Risk Communication Templates
APP
CCO
27/9/3
KDG
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

75. Risk Communication Templates
APP
CCO
27/9/3
KDG
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

76. Primacy/Recency Template
“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus most on what is said first (primacy) and last (recency).”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

77. Primacy/Recency Template
Low Stress Situations:
Brain processes information based on linear order (e.g., 1, 2, 3)
High Stress Situations:
Brain processes information based on primacy/recency (e.g., 1, 3, 2)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

78. Risk Communication Templates
APP
CCO
27/9/3
KDG
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

79. AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template
AGL-4 Template
=======
AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template
“When people are stressed or upset, they typically process information at four grade levels below their average grade level.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

80. AGL-4 Shift Low Stress Situations: Brain processes information at
AGL (average grade level)
High Stress Situations:
AGL-4 (average grade level minus 4 grade levels)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

81. Risk Communication Templates
APP
CCO
27/9/3
KDG
TBC
===
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

82. 3 P (Positives) Template (Negative Dominance Principle)
1N=3P Template
====
1N (Negative) Equals
3 P (Positives) Template
“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus more on the negative than on the positive.”
(Negative Dominance Principle)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

83. Negative Dominance High Stress Situations: 1N=3P
(one negative on average equals three positives)
Bad News Template:
It takes on average 3 positives to balance one negative.
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

84. No, Not, Never, Nothing, None
Negatives
====
No, Not, Never, Nothing, None
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

85. Risk Communication Models
The Stakeholder Predictability Model
-- Templates: APP, KDG
The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model
-- Templates: 27/9/3, Primacy/Recency,
AGL-4
The Trust Determination Model
-- Templates: CCO, TBC
The Negative Dominance Model
-- Templates: 1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

86. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
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87. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

88. Message Enhancements Visuals
“When people are stressed or upset, a well constructed and presented visual can increase message attention, understanding, and recall by over 50 percent.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

89. Visuals Graphics Analogies Story Telling
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90. Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

91. Will H5N1 come to the US?
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92. Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

93. Influenza viruses are spread from person to person, primarily through respiratory droplet transmission (e.g., when an infected person coughs or sneezes in close proximity to an uninfected person)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

94. Resource Materials - Visuals
Prof. Edward Tufte (Yale University)
“Visual Explanations”
“The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.”
“Envisioning Information.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

95. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

96. Credibility Ladder High Credibility Medium Credibility Low Credibility
Most Credible
Least Credible
High Credibility
Medium Credibility
Low Credibility
Teaching Points:
Trust takes the form of credibility in communication
A credibility ladder, based on research, is essential in planning for and conducting high concern communications
This is an example of a credibility ladder – nationwide survey, EHS topic
Why would this ranking work out this way?
Why would this be important?
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

97. Credibility Transference
“A lower credible source takes on the credibility of the highest credible source that agrees with its position on an issue.”
Teaching Points:
This is fairly intuitive, we see it every day
This is the basis of celebrity endorsements in advertising and politics
From what position on the credibility ladder are endorsers drawn?
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

98. Credibility Reversal
“When a lower source attacks the credibility of a higher source, the lower source loses further credibility.
The only information source that can effectively attack the credibility of another source is one of equal or higher credibility.”
Teaching Points:
This is not so intuitive
What is our reflexive response when our position is publicly attacked – often erroneously?
What is the result when we attempt to “set the record straight” from a lower position on the credibility ladder?
What are our options for being more effective?
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

99. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

100. Non-Verbal Communications in High Stress Situations
Provide up to 75 percent of message content
Are intensely and quickly noticed
Typically override verbal content
Are typically interpreted negatively
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

101. Resource Materials: Non-Verbal Communincation
Prof. D. Morris, “Body Talk: A Dictionary of Human Gestures”
Prof. P. Ekman, “Telling Lies: Clues to Deception”
Prof. P. Ekman, “Emotions Revealed”
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102. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
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103. Bridging
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104. “The most important thing for people to know is…”
Bridging Statements
Examples:
“The most important thing for people to know is…”
“What all this boils down to is…”
“What needs to be emphasized is…”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

105. Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication
Bridging
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

106. I.D.K. (I Don’t Know) Template
(Repeat the Question)
Say You Don’t Know/Can’t
Answer/Wish You Could Answer*
Give the Reason(s) Why You Don’t Know or Can’t Answer*
Indicate Follow Up with Deadline*
(Bridge to What You Can Say, Such as Overarching Message)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

107. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High stress situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

108. Risk Communication Models
The Stakeholder Predictability Model
-- Templates: APP, KDG
The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model
-- Templates: 27/9/3, Primacy/Recency,
AGL-4
The Trust Determination Model
-- Templates: CCO, TBC
The Negative Dominance Model
-- Templates: 1N=3P
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication