1. P RELIMINARY R ESULTS OF AN O NLINE S URVEY TO D ETERMINE A IR -T RANSPORT P ILOT A TTITUDES A BOUT U PSET R ECOVERY T RAINING 1 Rodney O. Rogers, PhD Department of Aeronautical Science Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL 32114 rogers@erau.edu http://webfac.db.erau.edu/~rogers

2. AIRPLANE UPSET 2 Any Unusual aircraft attitude Abnormal kinetic-energy level Threatening loss of control inflight (LOC-I) and ground impact

3. 3 LOC-I CURRENTLY THE NUMBER ONE CAUSE OF AIR-TRANSPORT FATALITIES AND HULL LOSSES WORLDWIDE (1573 DEATHS—2002-2011)

4. VOLUNTARY COMPANY-SPONSORED UPSET- RECOVERY TRAINING (UPRT) 4 Industry’s Uneven Response to LOC-I Accidents Since the Late 1990 s Academic Training Simulator-Based Training On-Aircraft Training in an Aerobatic Airplane

5. BUT IS UPRT EFFECTIVE? 5 LOC-I Accidents Are Infrequent, but … … They Continue to Occur Colgan Air 3407 & Air France 447

6. IS UPRT EFFECTIVE? 6 Ask the Pilots Who Receive It Online Survey (Currently Ongoing) Respondents Self-Selected Over 100 Pilot Responses to Date

7. ORGANIZATION 7 Description of the Survey

8. ORGANIZATION 8 Description of the Survey Data Collected  Pilot Demographics  UPRT Received from Employer  Pilot Confidence in Maneuvering Skills  Pilot Evaluation of the UPRT They Receive

9. ORGANIZATION 9 Description of the Survey Data Collected  Pilot Demographics  UPRT Received from Employer  Pilot Confidence in Maneuvering Skills  Pilot Evaluation of the UPRT They Receive Survey Results and Implications

10. ORGANIZATION 10 Description of the Survey Data Collected  Pilot Demographics  UPRT Received from Employer  Pilot Confidence in Maneuvering Skills  Pilot Evaluation of the UPRT They Receive Survey Results and Implications ADDITIONAL AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN THE CONFERENCE PAPER

11. SURVEY DESCRIPTION 11 23 Questions Pilot Demographics: 9 Type of UPRT Received: 6 Attitudes about UPRT: 8

12. SURVEY MARGIN-OF-ERROR 12 Sample Size = 100 Target Air-Transport Pilot Population = 50,000 Margin of Error = Less than ±8% Confidence Level = 0.95

13. SURVEY MARGIN-OF-ERROR 13 Sample Size = 100 Target Air-Transport Pilot Population = 50,000 Margin of Error = Less than ±8% Confidence Level = 0.95 Respondent Pilot Opinions Differ from Target Pilot Opinions by No More than 8% 95% Probability that Results Would Be the Same if the Survey Were Repeated

14. DEMOGRAPHICS: PILOT AGE Respondents Evenly Distributed by Age Group 14

15. DEMOGRAPHICS: YEARS IN PROFESSION Respondents Fairly Evenly Distributed by Years of Service 15

16. DEMOGRAPHICS: TOTAL FLIGHT TIME Average Flight Hours: 9612 16

17. DEMOGRAPHICS: INITIAL TRAINING VENUE Respondent Distribution Appears Not to Be Atypical 17

18. DEMOGRAPHICS: EMPLOYER CATEGORY Most Respondents Flew for Regional or Major Airlines 18

19. HOURS OF EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT: INITIAL ACADEMIC TRAINING 19

20. HOURS OF EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT: INITIAL SIMULATOR-BASED TRAINING 20

21. HOURS OF EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT: RECURRENT ACADEMIC TRAINING 21

22. HOURS OF EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT: RECURRENT SIMULATOR-BASED TRAINING 22

23. EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT: ON-AIRCRAFT AEROBATIC TRAINING AVAILABLE? 23

24. AUTOMATION DEPENDENCY: ABILITY TO “HAND-FLY” AN AIRPLANE 24 “I AM WELL - PRACTICED AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO HAND - FLY AN AIR - TRANSPORT AIRPLANE WHEN AUTOMATION FAILS …”

25. AGREEMENT THAT SELF CAN HAND-FLY AN AIRPLANE WHEN AUTOMATION FAILS 25 SD = Strongly Disagree; D = Disagree; N = Neutral A = Agree; SA = Strongly Agree

26. RECOVERING FROM A SERIOUS UPSET 26 “I AM CONFIDENT BEYOND DOUBT THAT I COULD SAFELY RECOVER FROM ANY UPSET I MIGHT ENCOUNTER …”

27. AGREEMENT THAT SELF CAN RECOVER FROM A SERIOUS UPSET 27 SD = Strongly Disagree; D = Disagree; N = Neutral A = Agree; SA = Strongly Agree

28. RECOVERING FROM A SERIOUS UPSET 28 “T HE TYPICAL AIR TRANSPORT PILOT IS WELL PREPARED TO RECOVER AN AIR TRANSPORT AIRPLANE FROM AN IN - FLIGHT UPSET.”

29. AGREMENT THAT PEER PILOTS CAN RECOVER FROM A SERIOUS UPSET 29

30. HOW TO EXPLAIN? “I CAN RECOVER FROM AN UPSET WHEN MY BUDDIES CAN’T” 30

31. ADEQUACY OF EMPLOYER-PROVIDED UPRT 31 “MY COMPANY PROVIDES ADEQUATE TRAINING TO PREPARE ME TO RECOVER FROM AN UPSET…”

32. PILOT AGREEMENT THAT EMPLOYER- PROVIDED UPRT IS “ADEQUATE” 32

33. NEED FOR BETTER UPRT 33 “MY COMPANY SHOULD PROVIDE ITS PILOTS MORE EXTENSIVE AND/OR BETTER UPSET-RECOVERY TRAINING…”

34. PILOT AGREEMENT THAT EMPLOYER- PROVIDED UPRT SHOULD BE “BETTER” 34

35. SUMMARY: RESPONDENT PILOTS BELIEVE THEY SHOULD RECEIVE “MORE AND/OR BETTER” UPRT 35 Low Reported Hours of UPRT

36. SUMMARY: RESPONDENT PILOTS BELIEVE THEY SHOULD RECEIVE “MORE AND/OR BETTER” UPRT 36 Low Reported Hours of UPRT Low Confidence in Ability of Typical Air-Transport Pilot to Recover from a Serious Upset

37. SUMMARY: RESPONDENT PILOTS BELIEVE THEY SHOULD RECEIVE “MORE AND/OR BETTER” UPRT 37 Low Reported Hours of UPRT Low Confidence in Ability of Typical Air-Transport Pilot to Recover from a Serious Upset Low Confidence in “Adequacy” of Company-Provided UPRT to Prepare Them to Recover from a Serious Upset

38. SUMMARY: RESPONDENT PILOTS BELIEVE THEY SHOULD RECEIVE “MORE AND/OR BETTER” UPRT 38 Low Reported Hours of UPRT Low Confidence in Ability of Typical Air-Transport Pilot to Recover from a Serious Upset Low Confidence in “Adequacy” of Company- Provided UPRT to Prepare Them to Recover from a Serious Upset Strong Agreement that UPRT Should Be Improved

39. CONCLUSION: SURVEY RESPONSES ARGUE FOR IMPROVED AIR-TRANSPORT UPRT 39

40. CONCLUSION: SURVEY RESPONSES ARGUE FOR IMPROVED AIR-TRANSPORT UPRT BUT ARE IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY? 40 FACTORS FAVORING IMPROVED UPRT: Adverse Media Exposure after an Upset Accident Forthcoming ICATEE Recommendations

41. CONCLUSION: SURVEY RESPONSES ARGUE FOR IMPROVED AIR-TRANSPORT UPRT BUT ARE IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY? 41 FACTORS FAVORING IMPROVED UPRT: Adverse Media Exposure after an Upset Accident Forthcoming ICATEE Recommendations FACTORS OPPOSING IMPROVED UPRT Challenging Economic Environment and High Cost of Line-Pilot UPRT Absence of Convincing Cost-Benefit Analyses Low Air-Transport Accident Rate

42. Regulator and the Flying Public Willingly Accept the LOC-I Risk 42 “We have met the enemy, and he is us.” --Walt Kelly’s Pogo

43. Pieter Breughel’s “The Fall of Icarus” ca. 1560 43

44. 44 About suffering they were never wrong, The old Masters: how well they understood Its human position: how it takes place While someone else is eating or opening a window or just walking dully along… In Breughel's Icarus, for instance: how everything turns away Quite leisurely from the disaster; the ploughman may Have heard the splash, the forsaken cry, But for him it was not an important failure; the sun shone As it had to on the white legs disappearing into the green Water, and the expensive delicate ship that must have seen Something amazing, a boy falling out of the sky, Had somewhere to get to and sailed calmly on. --W.H. Auden, “Musee des Beaux Arts”

45. 45

46. 46 U.S. Naval Aviator 14 Years Active / Reserve Duty 2500 Hours 247 Carrier Landings

47. 1500 Hours Chance-Vought F8 Crusader 47

48. 48

49. 49

50. 500 Hours Douglas A4 Skyhawk 50

51. Attended On-Aircraft LOC-I Training at Calspan, Roswell, NM 51

52. Flew CALSPAN Lear-25 In-Flight Simulator 52

53. Attended UPRT at Aviation Performance Solutions (APS) 53

54. Flew Extra-300 at APS, Mesa, Arizona 54