1. Risk Communication – Principles, Tools, & Techniques
Dr. Vincent T. Covello
Center for Risk Communication
Patricia A. Milligan
Office of Nuclear Security & Incident Response
April 1, 2010

2. “The problem with communication is the illusion it has occurred.”
George Bernard Shaw

3. Radiological Risk and Emergency Communications Draft NUREG/CR-XXXX
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

4. NRC, EP and Communications
Project Objective
NRC, EP and Communications
10 CFR 50.47(b)(7)
10 CFR 50 Appendix E
NUREG-0654/FEMA REP-1
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Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

5. “…Dose rates of radiation equivalent to one mammogram per hour have been measured at a location approximately one mile southwest of the plant.”
Press Release # 3, 2008 Bi-Annual Full Participation Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Preparedness Exercise
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6. Project Objective
To compile information on best practices and knowledge on risk communication before, during, and after a radiological emergency at a nuclear power plant.
To provide this information to nuclear power plant licensees and local emergency responders.
(Note: This project is not regulation or evaluation criteria.)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

7. Compilation of best practice in risk and crisis communication.
Should not be seen at all as a new requirement.
Use of these tools should help make your life easier.

8. Research and Practitioner Literature
Risk Communication
Research and Practitioner Literature
Over 8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals
Over 2000 Books by Scientific Publishers
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9. Agenda Part I: Core Concepts Part 2: Templates
Part 3: Case Studies and Discussion
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10. Definition
Risk: “a threat of loss, real or perceived, to that which we value.”
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11. Definition
Risk: “a threat of loss, real or perceived, to that which we value.”
Risk Communication: “the exchange of information about risks.”
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12. Risk Communication: Definition
Is an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion among individuals, groups, and institutions
Involves multiple messages about the nature of risk
Involves messages not strictly about risk, such as legal and institutional arrangements for risk management
Source: “Improving Risk Communication,” National Academy of Sciences, 1989
Discussion Points:
1. The majority of the two-way dialogue initially may come from the public We must first understand their concerns, interests and opinions before we can respond.
1-12
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HERC Workshop Topic 1: Risk Communication Fundamentals
Jan 2004
1-12

13. Mental Noise Threats (risks) produce stress Stress produces emotion
(e.g., anxiety, concern, worry, fear, anger, outrage)
Stress and emotion produce mental noise, which can radically change the way people process information
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14. Risk Communication Goals
enhance knowledge and understanding
build trust and credibility
encourage appropriate attitudes, behaviors and beliefs
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15. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
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16. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
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17. Risk Communication Literature
Over 8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals
2000 Books
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18. Risk Communication Literature: Example
Dr. R. Hyer and Dr. V. Covello
“Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies:
A World Health Organization Handbook”
World Health Organization, United Nations: Geneva, April 2007
( or
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19. “Communicating Radiation Risks”
Sample scenarios
Pre-approved messages
Lessons learned
NOTES:
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20. Risk Communication Literature: Example
“Five Essential Elements of Immediate and Mid-Term Mass Trauma Intervention: Empirical Evidence,” Psychiatry, 70(4): 2007
Authors: Steven Hobfoll et. al.
Conclusion of Research
Provide people a sense of:
Hope
Self- and community efficacy
Safety
Calm
Connectedness
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HERC v 3.1Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
HERC Workshop Topic 1: Risk Communication Fundamentals
Jan 2004
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21. Risk Communication: Resources
J. Lehrer, “How We Decide
M. Gladwell, “Blink”
R. Fisher, “Getting to Yes”
D. Morris, “Body Talk: A Dictionary of Human Gestures”
E. Tufte, “Visual Explanations”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

22. Risk Communication Literature: Example
“The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information”
George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University)
The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp
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23. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
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24. Risk Communication: Core Concepts
When people are stressed or concerned, they typically:
…have difficulty, hearing, understanding, and remembering information
…want to know that you care before they care what you know.
…focus most on what they hear first and last.
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

25. Risk Communication: Core Concepts - continued
When people are stressed or concerned:
…the gap between reason and emotion (risk perceptions) often becomes wider.
…they typically focus much more on negative information than positive information.
…they typically process information at four grades below their education level.
…they typically seek out additional third party sources of credible information.
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

26. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
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27. Seven Step Risk Communication Strategy
Identify a risk communication issue or scenario
Identify the primary stakeholders/target audience
Identify potential questions or concerns
Develop key messages using message mapping
Develop supporting information for key messages
Test and practice messages
Deliver messages through appropriate communication channels
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

28. Risk Communication: Core Principles
“Most of the concerns and questions of upset or concerned people can be predicted and prepared for in advance.”
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29. “It takes me an average of two weeks to prepare an impromptu speech.”
Mark Twain
“It takes me an average of two weeks to prepare an impromptu speech.”
Mark Twain
Copyright, Dr. V Covello,
Center for Risk Communication
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

30. Stakeholder Predictability
“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”
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31. Stakeholder Predictability
“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster” (handout)
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32. Stakeholder Predictability
“65 Most Frequently Asked Questions about Pandemic Influenza” (
“ 205 Most Frequently Asked Questions Following a Water Security or Water Contamination Event”
(USEPA, Effective Risk Communication during Water Security Emergencies” EPA/600/R-07/027)
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33. Radiological Emergencies:
Project Finding
Over 450 questions anticipated from the media and the public
14 categories of questions
(for example, questions about evacuation, sheltering in place, health and safety, KI, and economic impacts)
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34. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 34

35. Risk Communication Literature: Example
“The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information”
George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University)
The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 35

36. Stakeholder Question or Concern:
Message Map
Key Message
9 words on average
Key Message
9 words on average
Key Message
9 words on average
Support-ing Info. 1.1
Support-ing
Info. 2.1
Support-ing Info. 3.1
Support-ing Info.. 1.2
Support-ing Info. 2.2
Support-ing Info. 3.2
Support-ing Info. 1.3
Support-ing Info. 2.3 :
Support-ing Info. 3.3
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37. “Remove Standing Water” “Wear Protective Clothing”
West Nile Virus Map
Overarching
Message Map
Key Message
“Remove Standing Water”
Key Message
“Wear Protective Clothing”
Key Message
“Use Insect Repellent”
1.1
Unattended swimming pools
2.1
Long Sleeves
3.1
DEET
1.2
Flower Pots/Bird Baths
2.2
Long Pants
3.2
23%
1.3
Cup of Water
2.3
Dusk and Dawn
3.3
Medical Research
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HERC v 3.1Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
HERC Workshop Topic 1: Risk Communication Fundamentals
Jan 2004
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38. Agenda Part I: Core Concepts Part 2: Templates Part 3: Special Topics
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

39. Risk Communication Templates (see handout)
CCO
Rule of 3
27/9/3
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
IDK
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40. Risk Communication/Message Mapping Templates
CCO
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41. Caring/Empathy Principle
“When people are stressed and upset, they want to know that you care before they care what you know.”
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42. The CCO Template Compassion Conviction Optimism
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43. Trust Factors in High Stress Situations Competence/ Expertise 15-20%
Assessed
in first 9-30 seconds
Listening/ Caring/
Empathy/Compassion
50%
Competence/ Expertise %
All
Other Factors
15-20%
Honesty/ Openness %
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44. Templates CCO Rule of 3 27/9/3 Primacy/Recency
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45. Mental Noise (Attention Span)
20%
100
Mental noise can reduce
the ability to process
communication up to 80%
Contact: CenterforRiskCommunication.org
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46. Templates Rule of 3 27/9/3 Primacy/Recency
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47. Mental Noise: The Rule of 3
Everything in Threes
Three Key Messages
Repeat Messages Three Times (e.g., Triple T Model)
Key Messages Supported by Three Supporting Messages or Three Credible Sources
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

48. Templates CCO Rule of 3 27/9/3 Primacy/Recency
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49. The 27/9/3 Template 27 words 9 seconds 3 messages
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50. Templates CCO Rule of 3 27/9/3 Primacy/Recency
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

51. Primacy/Recency
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52. Primacy/Recency
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically focus most on that which is said first (primacy) and last (recency).”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

53. Primacy/Recency Template
Low Stress Situations:
Brain processes information based on linear order (e.g., 1, 2, 3)
High Stress Situations:
Brain processes information based on primacy/recency (e.g., 1, 3, 2)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

54. Risk Communication Templates
CCO
Rule of 3
27/9/3
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

55. Risk Communication Templates
CCO
Rule of 3
27/9/3
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

56. AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template
AGL-4 Template
=======
AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically process information at four grade levels below their average grade level.”
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

57. AGL-4 Shift Low Stress Situations: Brain processes information at
AGL (average grade level)
High Stress Situations:
AGL-4 (average grade level minus 4 grade levels)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

58. Notification of Unusual Event
“Under this category, events are in process or have occurred which indicate potential degradation in the level of safety of the plant. No release of radioactive material requiring offsite response or monitoring is expected unless further degradation occurs.”
Source: NRC Web Site
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 58

59. Message Maps Used to respond to high concern questions
Contain clear, concise, layered information
Contain vetted or screened messages for anticipated questions
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 59

60. Message Mapping Goals Enhance knowledge and understanding
Build trust and credibility
Encourage appropriate attitudes, behaviors and beliefs
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 60

61. Risk Communication Templates
CCO
Rule of 3
27/9/3
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

62. 3 P (Positives) Template (Negative Dominance Principle)
1N=3P Template
====
1N (Negative) Equals
3 P (Positives) Template
“When people are stressed and upset, they typically focus more on the negative than on the positive.”
(Negative Dominance Principle)
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

63. 1N=3P (Negative Dominance)
Avoid absolutes
(e.g., never, always)
Avoid Repeating Untrue Negatives/False Allegations
Balance bad news with positive, constructive messages
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

64. No, Not, Never, Nothing, None
Negatives
====
No, Not, Never, Nothing, None
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65. General K. Kiley, MedCom Commander, Walter Reed, Congressional Testimony
Q.: “Do you hold yourself accountable for the squalid conditions provided for wounded soldiers at Walter Reed”
A.: “I’m trying not to say I’m not accountable.”
Q.: “How could you not have known?
A.: “I don’t do barracks inspections at Walter Reed.”
Q. “Why did you do so little?”
“Walter Reed is not my only command.”
Source: March 6, 2007, Washington Post
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66. Risk Communication Templates
CCO
Rule of 3
27/9/3
Primacy/Recency
AGL-4
1N=3P
IDK
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

67. I.D.K. (I Don’t Know) Template
Repeat the question (optional)
Say you don’t know/can’t
answer/wish you could answer
Give the reason you don’t know or can’t answer the question
Indicate follow up
Bridge to what you can say about the issue
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
HERC Workshop Topic 1: Risk Communication Fundamentals
Jan 2004

68. “If I had all day to cut a large tree, I would spend most of the day
sharpening my axe.”
- Abraham Lincoln
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication 68

69. Risk Communication: Key Messages
Risk communication is a science-based discipline
High concern situations change the rules of communication
The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice
Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication
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70. “It takes me an average of two weeks to prepare an impromptu speech.”
- Mark Twain
Copyright Dr. V. Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication