1. 1 Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System David Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast RFC NROW November 4-5, 2009 National Weather Service Implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System David Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast RFC NROW November 4-5, 2009

2. First – a bit about NERFCFirst – a bit about NERFC The Community Hydrologic Prediction SystemThe Community Hydrologic Prediction System –Background and history –Why are we doing this? –How are we doing it? Outline

3. NERFC Service Area Major river basins include Genesee, Hudson, Mohawk, Housatonic, Connecticut, Merrimack, Blackstone, Pawtuxet, Kennebec,Penobscot and Saint John ~180 forecast points Staffing profile: Hydrologist-in-Charge Service Coordination Hydrologist and Development & Operations Hydrologist 4 Senior Hydrologists & 1 Senior Hydromet Analysis & Support Meteorologist (HAS) 3 Hydrologists & 2 HAS 1 Admin Support/Hydro Technician

4. Thirteen River Forecast Centers

5. River Forecast Center Responsibilities Calibrate and implement hydrologic /hydraulic models Calibrate and implement hydrologic /hydraulic models Perform robust Data QC Perform robust Data QC Provide 48-72 hour QPF and Temperature forecasts Provide 48-72 hour QPF and Temperature forecasts River flow and stage forecasts at 180 locations (220 basins) River flow and stage forecasts at 180 locations (220 basins) Flash Flood Guidance Flash Flood Guidance Ensemble streamflow predictions Ensemble streamflow predictions Ice Jams and Dam Breaks Ice Jams and Dam Breaks Water Supply forecasts Water Supply forecasts Partner with NOAA Line Offices to address issues relating to Hazard Resiliency, Water Resource Services, Ecosystem Health and Management, and Climate Change Partner with NOAA Line Offices to address issues relating to Hazard Resiliency, Water Resource Services, Ecosystem Health and Management, and Climate Change Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at Portland, CT.

6. Met-member Based Short Range Ensemble River Forecast System Unbiased GEFS and SREF model forcings (temp/precip) Unbiased GEFS and SREF model forcings (temp/precip) Runs 2x-day for each model Runs 2x-day for each model

7. Decision Support at the local level http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/self_brief.shtm l http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/self_brief.shtm l Getting the high priority hydro-meteorological information at their fingertips! Providing Remote or On-site Support! Whittenton Dam Crisis Montpelier Ice Jam

8. NOAA Regional Collaboration Harmful Algae Bloom Research http://www.oceanservice.noaa.gov/redtide NARR 1000 mb monthly wind anomolies (May 2005 and June 2009)

9. Future Services: National Inundation Mapping Program

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11. 11 Algorithm Services Data Services Control Services Display Services Security Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System CHPS Community Hydrologic Prediction System CHPS NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) are key partners in the provision of water resource information. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) The Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) will enable NOAA’s water research, development enterprise and operational service delivery infrastructure to be integrated and leveraged with other federal water agency activities, academia, and the private sector. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) are key partners in the provision of water resource information. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) The Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) will enable NOAA’s water research, development enterprise and operational service delivery infrastructure to be integrated and leveraged with other federal water agency activities, academia, and the private sector.

12. So Why the Move to CHPS? To meet the growing demands of our customers Floods, Drought, Water Supply, HABs, Power Generation, Fisheries Management, Ecosystem Health, Water Quality, Salt Water Intrusion, Dam/Levee Failures, Tropical Cyclone Impacts, Climate Change Impacts

13. Why CHPS? NWSRFS was a great architecture originally developed for use on mainframe computers –lacks modern modularity –difficult to add new models and techniques –inhibits collaboration and research to operations CHPS will allow: –greater ease in implementing new models –greater collaboration with agency partners, universities, international community 13 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2003 today 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2003 today

14. The CHPS Acceleration Team – or CAT pursuit of CHPS –ABRFC, NCRFC, NWRFC volunteered to work w/ OHD. CNRFC later drafted. –Criteria established through evaluation of NWSRFS strengths and weaknesses (Apex facilitation, available from HSEB) –Evaluate Delft-FEWS as a CHPS candidate –FEWS = Flood Early Warning System The CHPS Acceleration Team – or CAT pursuit of CHPS –ABRFC, NCRFC, NWRFC volunteered to work w/ OHD. CNRFC later drafted. –Criteria established through evaluation of NWSRFS strengths and weaknesses (Apex facilitation, available from HSEB) –Evaluate Delft-FEWS as a CHPS candidate –FEWS = Flood Early Warning System CAT River Forecast Centers Beta Sites (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exploration phase in 2003

15. FEWS Architecture 15 (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 What is FEWS? –JAVA based system and repository for hydrologic and hydraulic modeling –Client/server architecture –Mature system developed by Delft Hydraulics|WL (now Deltares), a Dutch foundation, since the 1990s –Deterministic and ensemble capabilities –Employs Postgres database, system synchronization Backup and stand-by –Inputs are grids! What is FEWS? –JAVA based system and repository for hydrologic and hydraulic modeling –Client/server architecture –Mature system developed by Delft Hydraulics|WL (now Deltares), a Dutch foundation, since the 1990s –Deterministic and ensemble capabilities –Employs Postgres database, system synchronization Backup and stand-by –Inputs are grids!

16. FEWS Users 16

17. CAT Recommendation Proceed with implementation of Delft-FEWS as the CHPS software infrastructure.Proceed with implementation of Delft-FEWS as the CHPS software infrastructure. Target operational use at all RFCs within 3 years.Target operational use at all RFCs within 3 years. Resource implicationsResource implications –Re-direct OHD resources toward CHPS/FEWS –Terminate “dead-end” NWSRFS enhancements –Align/re-evaluate HSMB-oriented “Research to Operations” (RTO) projects 17 Approved by Office Director – Gary Carter – Jan 17, 2008 (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

18. Implementation Strategy Port models that require calibrationPort models that require calibration –Hydrologic/Hydraulic Models –Soil Moisture Models –Snow Models –Reservoir Models BASEFLOW, SARROUTE, CONS_USE, LAG/K, LAY-COEF, TATUM, TIDEREV, MUSKROUT, RES-J, RSNWELEV, SNOW-17, CHANLOSS, STAGE-Q, SSARRESV, STAGEREV, UNIT-HG, RES-SNGL, SAC-SMA Create adapters for other NWSRFS routines we wish to maintainCreate adapters for other NWSRFS routines we wish to maintain Create adapters for several new models ( e.g. HEC-RAS )Create adapters for several new models ( e.g. HEC-RAS ) 18 (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

19. 19 FEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and servicesFEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and services Combination of porting existing software meshed with existing FEWS capabilitiesCombination of porting existing software meshed with existing FEWS capabilities FEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and servicesFEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and services Combination of porting existing software meshed with existing FEWS capabilitiesCombination of porting existing software meshed with existing FEWS capabilities Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Services

20. Models in FEWS 20 ModelTypeSupplier/OwnerCountry ISISHydrodynamicsHRHR/HalcrowHalcrowUK PDMRainfall-RunoffCEHUK TCMRainfall-RunoffCEHUK KWRouting (kinematic wave)CEHUK PACKSnow MeltCEHUK ARMAError CorrectionCEHUK PRTFEvent Based RRPlanBUK TRITONSurge propagation/OvertoppingPlanBUK STFTransfer functionsEAUK DODORouting (layered Muskingum)EAUK MCRMRainfall-RunoffEAUK Modflow96/VKD3D groundwaterDeltares/Adam TaylorNetherlands/UK Mike11HydrodynamicsDHIDenmark NAMRainfall-RunoffDHIDenmark LISFLOODDistributed Rainfall-RunoffJRCItaly TOPKAPIRainfall-RunoffUniv. of BolognaItaly HBVRainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt)SHMISweden VfloDistributed Rainfall-RunoffVieux & AssiciatesUSA SWMMUrban Rainfall-RunoffUSGSUSA HEC-RASHydrodynamicsUSACEUSA Snow17Snow MeltNWSUSA SACSMRainfall-RunoffNWSUSA Unit-HUnit-HydrographNWSUSA PRMSRainfall-RunoffUniv. of KarlsruhreGermany SynHPHydrodynamicsBfGGermany SOBEKHydrodynamics, Water Quality, RRDeltaresNetherlands SOBEK-2dLinked 1d/2d inundation modellingDeltaresNetherlands SacramentoRainfall-RunoffDeltaresNetherlands RIBASIMWater distribution + ReservoirDeltaresNetherlands REWDistributed Rainfall-RunoffDeltaresNetherlands DELFT3D2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water qualityDeltaresNetherlands TWAM2D HydrodynamicsPlanBUK

21. Implementation Strategy Two tiers of deployment 4 CAT RFCs: CN, NW, AB, NE –Initial hardware delivered Oct ‘08 (Stand-by System) –Initial migration software and training occurred in February ‘09 –Second suite of operational hardware delivery fall 2009 (On-line System) –Full Baseline Operating Capability BOC-1 arrived in October 2009. 21 (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Parallel operations are about to commence at NERFC!!

22. Implementation Strategy Two tiers of deployment Remaining 9 RFCs (BOC-2) –Initial hardware delivery in October 2009 –Migration/Systems training – Fall 2009 –Migration begins January 2010 –Parallel operations by October 2010 –Goal is to “Retire” NWSRFS by January 2011 –Entire system needs to be baselined into AWIPS II configuration at the RFCs 22 RFCs not required to drop NWSRFS until “fully ready” (2003) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

23. Ultimate Outcome: CHPS will include the same science algorithms initially – but tremendous potential to expand Improved Efficiency for Forecaster –Greatly enhanced visualization, gridded forcings, and the ability to display time series of many more variables Improved Tools for “What If” Scenarios Improved Capabilities for New Science Integration –Through the use of Adaptors; HEC-RAS, RESSIM –Availability to use models in FEWS from other partners CHPS will include the same science algorithms initially – but tremendous potential to expand Improved Efficiency for Forecaster –Greatly enhanced visualization, gridded forcings, and the ability to display time series of many more variables Improved Tools for “What If” Scenarios Improved Capabilities for New Science Integration –Through the use of Adaptors; HEC-RAS, RESSIM –Availability to use models in FEWS from other partners

24. 24 Duty (On-line) and Stand-by system –All data is synchronized between system via the Master Controller –NWS testing synchronization to paired offices – similar to WFOs Duty (On-line) and Stand-by system –All data is synchronized between system via the Master Controller –NWS testing synchronization to paired offices – similar to WFOs Duty System Stand-by System Architecture RFCNWSHQNOHRSCWFO??

25. 25 Display Concepts

26. 26 Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System David Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast RFC NROW XI November 4-5, 2009 National Weather Service Implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System David Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast RFC NROW XI November 4-5, 2009