1. Conceptualising vulnerability Towards a Research Agenda for the PPA Research and Analysis Working Group 4 February 2002

2. Outline of the presentation The PRSP, the PPA and vulnerability What the PRSP says about vulnerability A conceptual framework for vulnerability Pointers for the PPA process

3. The PRSP, the PPA and vulnerability - 1 PRSP highlights vulnerability as a ‘major concern’ But PRSP also recognises too little is known about vulnerability More information is required on: –The factors that make people vulnerable –The different manifestations of vulnerability and their prevalence in different strata –Ways in which people act to contain or reduce vulnerability –The likely impact of the PRS on vulnerable population groups –The most effective programmes that could be put in place to contain or reduce vulnerability

4. The PRSP, the PPA and vulnerability - 2 PPA can provide important contributions towards the strengthening of the knowledge base on vulnerability It can provide concrete policy recommendations, based on the views of the vulnerable themselves, on how vulnerability should be addressed by the PRS However, conceptual clarity about vulnerability is crucial for a successful PPA

5. What the PRSP says about vulnerability - 1 Vulnerability is people’s susceptibility to become poor or poorer because of unpredictable events, or shocks Floods, droughts and HIV/AIDS mentioned specifically Vulnerable groups include AIDS victims, the elderly, the handicapped, orphaned children, refugees Traditional systems to protect the vulnerable have eroded Therefore, the need for safety nets has increased

6. What the PRSP says about vulnerability - 2 The assumption in the PRSP is that the strategy will lift substantial numbers of people out of poverty, but there are shocks which risk forcing people back into poverty or prevent them from climbing out of poverty. If people’s vulnerability to shocks can be reduced, or if the effects of these shocks can be managed, the PRSP targets can be achieved. PRSP interventions are aimed at reducing vulnerability (drought resistant crops, irrigation schemes) as well as direct support for people affected by shocks (food-for-work, employment schemes)

7. What the PRSP says about vulnerability - 3 But many questions remain to be answered: Is the reason that vulnerable people become poor(er) always a ‘shock’? What about more gradual processes? Are the events that impact negatively on the vulnerable always unpredictable and exogenous? Is the best approach to vulnerability to target the most vulnerable with safety net programmes? Is it true that traditional coping mechanisms are eroding?

8. A conceptual framework We need a conceptual framework which: a) Is compatible with the thinking in the PRSP b) Allows us to seek answers to the questions raised above, and others…

9. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to become poor, or poorer as a result of events or processes that affect them

10. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to become poor, or poorer as a result of events or processes that affect them Extent to which you are prone, at risk, likely to be affected

11. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to become poor, or poorer as a result of events or processes that affect them Vulnerability is an issue at different levels

12. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to become poor, or poorer as a result of events or processes that affect them Non-poor sliding into poverty or poor becoming poorer

13. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to become poor, or poorer as a result of events or processes that affect them Not just ‘shocks’

14. Vulnerability and Poverty - 1 Vulnerability and Poverty are not synonyms Vulnerability helps us understand the dynamics of poverty Vulnerability and poverty are correlated As vulnerability is defined in relation to poverty, the conceptual framework for the PPA also needs a definition of poverty

15. Vulnerability and Poverty - 2 Poor Wealthy High vulnerability Low vulnerability

16. Characteristics of vulnerability - 1 Some people are more vulnerable than others Therefore some are more likely to feel the impact of a particular adverse event or process than others The characteristics of vulnerable groups or individuals help us understand this

17. Characteristics of vulnerability - 2 Characteristics of vulnerability can be identified at individual, household or community level They can be clustered into those related to: –The life cycle –Physical factors –Social factors –Economic factors –Cultural factors –Environmental factors

18. Characteristics of vulnerability - 3 Characteristics of vulnerability are cumulative Characteristics of vulnerability are not static – people and groups become more vulnerable or less vulnerable over time

19. Characteristics of vulnerability - 3 IndividualHouseholdCommunityArea Life cycle Physical Social Cultural Economic Political Environ- mental

20. Events and processes that trigger the impoverishment of the vulnerable - 1 Sudden or gradual Predictable or unpredictable Can occur at different levels: individual, household, community, etc Can be clustered into: –Nature –Health –Life cycle –Social –Economic –Political –Environmental

21. Events and processes that trigger the impoverishment of the vulnerable - 2 IndividualHouseholdCommunityArea Nature Health Life cycle Social Economic Political Environmental

22. Events and processes that trigger the impoverishment of the vulnerable - 3 Poor Wealthy High vulnerability Low vulnerability

23. Mechanisms to contain or reduce vulnerability - 1 Exist at individual, household, community, district, national levels Can be divided into: –Prevention/avoidance –Preparedness –Mitigation

24. Mechanisms to contain or reduce vulnerability - 2 IndividualHouseholdCommunityArea Prevention and avoidance Preparedness Mitigation

25. Mechanisms to contain or reduce vulnerability - 3 Poor Wealthy High vulnerability Low vulnerability preparedness Prevention, avoidance mitigation

26. Pointers for the PPA Investigate: Poverty history of individuals, groups and communities Events and processes which explain changes in poverty Characteristics which explain why people were affected differently Coping mechanisms in place and how they have evolved over time Policy recommendations