1. THE STATUS OF CAPE TOWN:1996-2004 DEVELOPMENT OVERVIEW Keith Smith Presentation to City Futures Conference Cape Town 14 July 2005

2. Aim Significant changes in development context of Cape Town: Globally (trade liberalisation, urbanisation of poverty) Nationally (dismantling of apartheid state; broadranging policy and legislative reforms) Locally (democratic local government, integrated development planning) What has net effect of changes been?

3. Similar Reviews 10 Year Review - The Presidency State of South African Cities Report - SA Cities Network Understanding Gauteng’s changing economic, social and political landscape – ANC Gauteng Province … all point to broadly similar conclusions

4. “ It is now 10 years after the first democratic elections. In this time a great deal has been accomplished in the transformation of South African cities. However despite the significant progress, this State of the South African Cities report has also shown that many challenges remain. In many cases these challenges are the same as those left by apartheid. In some cases these have either intensified or taken on new forms.” (SACN State of Cities Report 2004: 166)

5. “The advances made in the first decade by far supersede the weaknesses. Yet, if all indicators were to continue along the same trajectory, especially in respect of the dynamic of economic inclusion and exclusion, we could soon reach a point where the negatives overcome the positives. This could precipitate a vicious decline in all spheres.” (The Presidency, 2003:102)

6. Key socio-economic indicators for Cape Town have deteriorated…

7. Negative trends (1)

8. Negative Trends (2)

9. Negative trends (3)

10. Negative trends (4)

11. Negative trends (5) Significant shifts in public expenditure to poorer areas of Cape Town but private investment has largely remained focused on the established areas of the city Very little private investment in poorer South-East of the city This pattern is reinforcing spatial inequalities in the city

13. More recent positive indicators ……

14. Positive indicators (1)

15. Positive indicators (2)

16. Positive Indicators (3) Sustained period of economic growth Stabilisation of unemployment levels and latest estimates for Cape Town indicate slight drop Some private investment in poorer areas Khayelitsha CBD Vangate development

17. …but a number of trends are reinforcing poverty and inequality

18. Constraints City of Cape Town19962001 Demography Number of Households 651 972759 765 Annual average rate of household growth (1996-2001) 3.3% Population 2 563 0952 893 251 Annual average rate of population growth (1996-2001) 2.5% Electricity Supply % of households with electricity supply 87.2%88.8% Number of households with electricity supply 566 808690 369

19. Constraints

23. Conclusion despite significant investments in housing and infrastructure and broad ranging policy reforms, many of the social indicators for Cape Town have in general remained poor or have deteriorated more recent positive indicators of change fundamental changes to the development path of Cape Town are constrained by a number of trends which are reinforcing social and spatial segregation and inequalities