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Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005

2 Norges Bank 2 Economic developments

3 Norges Bank 3 Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF Source: IMF

4 Norges Bank 4 Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF Source: IMF

5 Norges Bank 5 Growth forecast from Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts 20052006

6 Norges Bank 6 Developments in 10-year government bond yields Source: EcoWin Norway US Germany

7 Norges Bank 7 Developments on the Oslo Stock Exchange and international stock exchanges Daily figures. 3 January 2005 = 100. 1 January – 19 April 2005 Source: EcoWin

8 Norges Bank 8 Development in credit spreads Percentage points. Daily figures EMBI+ Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

9 Norges Bank 9 Development in credit spreads Percentage points. Daily figures. 1 April - 19 April 2005 EMBI+ Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank

10 Norges Bank 10 Interest rate expectations 18 April 2005 Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters UK Euro area US Norway

11 Norges Bank 11 Interest rate expectations Norway Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters 16 March Norway 18 April

12 Norges Bank 12 Interest rate increases in this business cycle Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank First interest rate increase Key rate at lowest level Current key rate Change since lowest level Iceland06.05.20045.309.003.70 New Zealand29.01.20045.006.751.75 UK06.11.20033.504.751.25 US30.06.20041.002.751.75 Australia08.05.20024.255.501.25 Canada08.09.20042.002.500.50 Switzerland17.06.20040.00-0.750.25-1.250.50 Euro area2.00 0.00 Sweden2.00 0.00 JapanClose to zero 0.00 Trading partners 1) 06.05.20042.022.320.30 1) Estimated as a weighted average of 10 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD. On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.16 per cent.

13 Norges Bank 13 Exchange rate movements I-44 in 2005 Monetary policy meeting and Inflation Report Source: Norges Bank

14 Norges Bank 14 Daily percentage change and historical volatility (one month) for EURNOK Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank Volatility Daily percentage change

15 Norges Bank 15 Historical volatility for EURSEK, EURNOK and EURGBP Source: Reuters

16 Norges Bank 16 Manufacturing output index Volume. Index. 3-month moving average Consumer goods Intermediate goods Capital goods Source: Statistics Norway

17 Norges Bank 17 C2 households Other loans Mortgage loans C2 for households by mortgage loans and other loans 12-month growth. Per cent Source: Norges Bank

18 Norges Bank 18 Credit to mainland enterprises 12-month growth. Per cent Total credit Domestic credit Credit from foreign sources Source: Norges Bank

19 Norges Bank 19 Price index for non-residential commercial property Price per square metre. Growth on same half year previous year. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway

20 Norges Bank 20 House prices from the Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents 1) 12-month rise. Monthly figures. Per cent NEF Source: OBOS and Associations of Norwegian Real Estate Agents (NEF, EFF) OBOS 1) OBOS prices: Break in series from Jan 04

21 Norges Bank 21 Housing starts (last 12 months) In thousands Sources: Statistics Norway

22 Norges Bank 22 Goods consumption index Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

23 Norges Bank 23 Unemployment in some occupations Seasonally adjusted. Index January 2004=100 Source: Aetat Directorate of Labour Nursing and health care Clerical/commercial work Total Administrative and humanistic work

24 Norges Bank 24 CPI-ATE Total and broken down by imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 1/05 (broken line) 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) 1) Norges Bank's estimates. Imported consumer goods (0.3)) CPI-ATE

25 Norges Bank 25 Projections for the CPI-ATE and the output gap Inflation Report 1/05. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI-ATE Output gap


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