1. © CNMCA Cap. Davide MELFI Italian Air Force Meteorological Service CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Session 4 of Convection Week 2011, 6-9 June 2011

2. © CNMCA OUTLINE The model: NEFODINA Features - Case studies Summary and Outlook An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

3. © CNMCA Classification ClassesDuration Linear Dim. (Km/pixels) Area (Km 2 /pixels) Single Cell30-50 min.5-10 / 1-220-80 / 1-3 Multicell Thunderstorm Squall line 2-6 hours20-30 / 3-5310-700 / 8-20 Supercell1-6 hours20-30 / 3-5310-700 / 8-20 Mesoscale convective system 6-12 hours350-500 / 60-80 100.000-200.000/ 2800 - 5500 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

4. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

5. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

6. © CNMCA Detection of Cloudy Cluster VARIABLE THRESHOLD ALGORITHM 200 K° < T B < 236 K° An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

7. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Slope index Ellipticity Cloud Top Area Minimum Temperature Modal Temperature Main Temperature

8. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

9. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

10. © CNMCA Parental Relationship Cross correlation between the COs detected at time t and the COs detected at time (t-1) evaluated minimizing a weighted distance function d on the position of the centre of gravity d 1, minimum temperature d 2 and modal temperature d 3 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

11. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

12. © CNMCA Cross Analysis 7 JULY 2005 - 17:30 WV1 (6.2  m)WV2 (7.3  m)IR (10.8  m) We classified as convective the object with the same features in the IR and WV channels An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

13. © CNMCA Cold Objects Some objects near the limit of the troposphere and therefore near the thermal inversion, showed a top more crushed and cold so they weren’t identified like convective from the algorithm because discarded for the low value of the slope index DETECTION ERROR SOLVED: Nefodina, in spite of the optimal demonstrated performances, is constantly monitored An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

14. © CNMCA Case study: 7 May 2005 Cold Objects An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

15. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

16. © CNMCA Life Cicle of a Convective Cell The Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS s ) are often correlated with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and hail showers, frequently causing significant damage The most intensive weather activities occur during the growing phase An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

17. © CNMCA Development/Dissolving phase An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Studies on the minimum temperature, area and slope index of objects detected in IR window channel and WV channels of METEOSAT6 has pointed out that the dissolving phase of the CO starts really only when the cloud top descent is simultaneous to a WV decrease. DEVELOPMENT: DISSOLVING: OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE

18. © CNMCA GRIB FILE Model Fields New Output Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

19. © CNMCA Software scheme 10.8  m (IR) – time t 6.2  m (WV1) – time t 7.3  m (WV2) – time t 10.8  m (IR) – time t-1 CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA DYNAMIC ANALYSIS STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Calibration Filter application to sharpen cloud edges ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs First detection LIFE PHASE EVALUATION Already detected GRAPHIC OUTPUT PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

20. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Output

21. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Output With red shades are indicated the cloud top of the detected convective cell forecasted in growing phase With pink shades are indicated the cloud top of the detected convective cell forecasted in decreasing phase. The dark red and dark pink colors are used to indicate the most intensive convective regions. Blue shades are used to show the cloud to which we are interested. Dark blue is used for lowest cloud and light blue/yellow for highest clouds.

22. © CNMCA Output Ascii file with the story An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

23. © CNMCA Case study: 2 July 2009 SINGLE CELLS Case study: 03 Agoust 2009 MULTICELL Case study: 23 September 2009 SUPERCELL An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

24. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Case study: 23 September 2009

25. © CNMCA Case study: 23 September 2009 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Cbs development along flanking line

26. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Verification Against Lightning Data Correlation = 84% Case study: 2 July 2009

27. © CNMCA NEFODINA – easily configurable: scene size, position, threshold, colors, additional information (CTH). An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

28. © CNMCA NEFODINA Every area capability: Airoperations An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

29. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA NEFODINA Every area capability: Maritime operations

30. © CNMCA

32. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

33. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

34. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

35. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

36. © CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

37. © CNMCA Rapidscan Service Second derivative: convection’s acceleration An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

38. © CNMCA NEFODINA on Satrep Online? TO BE CONFIRMED

39. © CNMCA Conclusions NEFODINA has been developed to detect and forecast the severe convective systems present on the scene and all the convective cells inside these systems. This is an important support for forecasters of the IAFMS, who test every day the performance and the reliability of this product, to diagnose the convective activity, evaluate its severity and its potential development. Early warning with second derivative Convection and Lightning The last three days of data on ftp.meteoam.it (contact point melfi@meteoam.it) An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

40. © CNMCA Thanks for your attention! An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA