1. CRed carbon reduction 1 Norfolk and Norwich Group Transport and Biofuels A route to a low carbon future?? February 27th 2008 N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 1

2. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 2 Climate Change Issues Historic Trends in Transport Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency New Fuels The Social Dimension Driver Behaviour Conclusions Transport Issues and Biofuels

3. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 33 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide 3

4. CRed carbon reduction 44 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood 4

5. CRed carbon reduction 5 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo! 5

6. CRed carbon reduction 6 Last Ice Age Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 6 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record 6

7. CRed carbon reduction 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 7 7

8. CRed carbon reduction 8 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 8 8

9. CRed carbon reduction 9 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 9 9

10. CRed carbon reduction 10 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 10 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 10

11. CRed carbon reduction Carbon Emissions associated with transport 11 Total UK emissions are about 550 Mtonnes per annum

12. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction The Problem 12 Cars emit between 160 and 600g CO 2 per mile A small car emits equivalent of 1 party balloon of CO 2 every 60m A small car driven 9000 miles a year will emit around 2.25 tonnes of carbon dioxide. A house will typically cause emission of 4 – 10 tonnes of CO 2. A tumble dryer used 5 times a week will emit around 0.5 tonnes a year A flight to Sydney, Australia will cause emission of 3.7 tonnes directly. Alternative approaches are needed: ? Less travelling by wasteful means ? New fuels

13. CRed carbon reduction Historic Trends: Personal Mobility 13 Increase in personal mobility by ~400% in 50 years Mostly by car journeys Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed ) Nearly 50% increase in rail travel since privatisation –represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of CO2 per annum compared to road. If this travel is replacing road travel!! Will investment in public transport necessarily reduce car journeys? Privatisation

14. CRed carbon reduction Private Motoring 14 Components of Energy Demand in personal transport. Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency improvements until 1990. Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in balance. Need to reduce further increases in mobility if CO 2 is to be reduced significantly.

15. CRed carbon reduction Historic Trends: Freight 15 Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: –223% since 1960 –20% since 1990 Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

16. CRed carbon reduction 16 Carbon and Energy Efficiency Trends in Cars voluntary emission targets will not be reduced to 140 g/km by 2008/09

17. CRed carbon reduction 17 Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005. Trends in Car Engine Size Car engine sizes are getting larger. This increase has caused the emission of an extra 2.9 Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum. 17

18. CRed carbon reduction 18 Percentage of models available compared to social desire. -ve means less models on market than people intending to buy. Size of Car Engines in Market 2006 Size of Choice according to survey of prospective buyers Data: Vehicle Emission Database Department of Transport Report: Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty” <1000 1000 - 1300 1003 - 1600 1600 - 2000 2000 - 2500 2500 - 3000 >3000

19. CRed carbon reduction 19 Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%

20. CRed carbon reduction New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle 20

21. CRed carbon reduction 21 Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have an impact in reducing CO2 from transport. However, other studies give differing results and clarity and robustness of methodolgy is needed – including “Real Road Tests” Biofuel Options Biogas Bioethanol (5% or 85%) Biodiesel (5% to 100%) Vegetable oil Benefit > Reduced CO2 and other emissions? Technical Issues: New Fuels

22. CRed carbon reduction Alternative Fuels: Bioethanol Bioethanol – a substitute for petrol can be blended at ~ 5% blend with petrol with no modification to engine: E5. Standard for petrol allows up to 5% blend With modified engines can be used at 85% blend: E85 (or 90% in Brazil). Infrastructure of outlets is not developed in Europe and “Flexi-Fuel Vehicles” must be used. Can run on any mix from 100% petrol to e85. Modifications: Hardened Valve seats and intelligent adjustment of timing depending on fuel mix in car Ford Focus Flexi-fuelSAAB Flexi-fuel

23. CRed carbon reduction 23 Launch of BioEthanol in UK: Norwich 15 th March 2006 Planning is needed both for vehicles and infrastructure

24. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Alternative Fuels: Biodiesel Biodiesel– a substitute for fossil diesel can be blended at ~ 5% blend with normal diesel B5. Standard for diesel allows up to 5% blend Modern diesels can run on up to 100% blend with no modification, but warranty by manufacturers is often made invalid with any blend > 5%. Often used at higher blend in fleet situations – e.g. HGVs, Anglian Buses. 3 Anglian buses were using B20 – i.e. 20% blend – new supply will allow continuation from next month. No degradation in performance noted despite lower energy content.

25. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Alternative Fuels: Biogas Biogas vehicles could use same infrastructure as CNG vehicles. Total Biogas potential in UK ~ 155.4 million tonnes of suitable biodegradable municipal waste. Sufficient for equivalent of ~ 2.5 billion litres or ~5.1% of Road Transport requirements Gas powered vehicles in Malmo

26. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Fuel Cell powered bus: hydrogen Alternative Fuels: Hydrogen

27. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Bioethanol 27 Can be blended up to 5% with petrol Can be used directly in specially designed engines CRed carbon reduction Sugar Beet Wheat Woody Wastes (and ultimately) Municipal Wastes Bioethanol can be obtained from: Bioethanol can be produced by: Acid hydrolysis Enzymatic hydrolysis Gasification and fermentation

28. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Bioethanol from Sugar Beet or Sugar Cane Bioethanol from Wheat Bioethanol Production Wheat Sugar Beet or Sugar Cane Malting processes Animal Feeds Waste Products Electricity BioethanolFermentation Yeast Residue for Energy??? Crushing to dissolve sugars Distillation Bioethanol Yeast Fermentation

29. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Bioethanol from Enzymatic Hydrolysis and Fermentation Bioethanol from Acid Hydrolysis and Fermentation Electricity Waste Products Straw/ Wood BioethanolEnzymatic Hydrolysis Enzymes Enzymatic Fermentation Enzymes Bioethanol Production Electricity Waste Products BioethanolEnzymatic Fermentation Enzymes Straw/ Wood Chemical Byproducts Acids Acid Hydrolysis In 2020

30. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Biodiesel production biodiesel Vegetable Oil Methanol Catalyst crushing Used Vegetable Oil filter Remove free fatty acids glycerol

31. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Does Bioethanol reduce CO 2 ? CRed carbon reduction CO 2 emissions transport milling Hydrolysis / fermentation and process harvesting sowing cultivation fertilisers Bioethanol Fossil Fuels Electricity fertilisers Fossil Fuels Biomass Cogeneration CO 2 +veCO 2 ve Grid Electricity Process heat -5 to + 50% saving 50 – 110% saving 31

32. CRed carbon reduction 32 Technical Issues: New Fuels 32 Biofuels: one part of the solution in near term with Fuel Cells in longer Term?? Overall CO 2 emissions for different fuels/production methods/power trains. Based on CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy Taylor

33. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction The Problem 33 New Fuels such as biofuels are a possible solution, but only if exploited sustainably. What area of land is needed to supply fuel for road transport needs? In 2006 we needed 49.035 billion litres of road transport fuel If provided solely by biofuels that would require and area of 200 000 – 240 000 sq km. The area of the UK is 225 000 sq km Biofuels could perhaps provide up to 5 - 10% but no more. Some coming from used cooking oil

34. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction UK Wheat Production and Exports 34 Average surplus over 23 years = 1.96 million tonnes Average surplus over last 4 years = 1.65 million tonnes Average yield per hectare = 7.4 tonnes

35. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Set Aside Land in UK 35 Set aside land average over last 10 years 5372 sq km Set aside land in 2006 - 4380 sq km

36. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Bioethanol: What is maximum sustainable production? 36 Set Aside land (2006) = 4380 sq km = 438000 hectares Average (1997 – 2006) wheat yield = 7.8 tonnes per hectare Each tonne So yield is 2621 litres per hectare Average yield of sugar beet = 55.2 tonnes per hectare So yield is 5962 litres per hectare. Assume 50% of each crop on rotation basis Total production each year would be 219000 * (2621 + 5962) = 1.880 billion litres or 7.65% of current petrol demand But bioethanol has a lower energy content So true saving in litre = 1.257 billion litres or 5.11% by energy content

37. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Biodiesel: What is maximum sustainable production? 37 Set Aside land (2006) = 4380 sq km = 438000 hectares Average (1997 – 2006) oil seed rape yield = 3.2 tonnes per but only around 38.5% is oil So yield is 1092 litres per hectare Total potential production on set aside land = 0.618 billion litres Total demand for diesel = 24.24 billion litres Saving = 2.55% by volume or 2.43% by energy content 24.23555

38. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Biofuels: What is maximum sustainable production? 38 Assume 50% of set aside is used for biodiesel and 50% for bioethanol as a mixture of wheat and sugar beet. Further it is as assumed that all exported wheat is converted into bioethanol. CropYield (billion litres) Saving in fossil fuel litres * CO 2 savings @ 50% ** M tonnes CO 2 savings @ 100% ** M tonnes Wheat0.2870.1920.2130.426 Sugar Beet0.6530.4370.4850.969 Oil Seed Rape0.3090.2740.3670.735 Exported Wheat 0.5540.3710.4120.823 Totals1.8031.2731.4762.953 * Makes allowance for different energy content of fuel * Assumes 50% or 100% saving in CO 2 depending on process Only achieves 3.69% saving in raw volume cf. 5% RTFO

39. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 39 Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry 2004 Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel, fuel consumption remained the same First trials ever of fuel economy ‘on the road’ using biodiesel 8 Volvo FH12 Trucks: 5%, 20%, 35%, 50% biodiesel blends

40. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 40 Driver behaviour can affect performance Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel than driver 1 Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Driver behaviour

41. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 41 Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to 60% saving –Using 50% uvo biodiesel (~40% saving) –Advanced driver training (~15% saving): cumulative ~49% –Better route/load planning (~10% saving): cumulative ~54% –More fuel-efficient trucks (~10% saving): cumulative ~59% Total CO2 saving ~59% However –Widespread availability of biodiesel at this concentration and new trucks will take time Other actions could be taken in shorter time scale –Advanced driver training (~15% saving): –Better route/load planning (~10% saving): Total CO2 saving ~24% Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry

42. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction 42 In UK it is 5% substitution of biofuels by volume. Should it be 5% by energy? Will the buy out money necessarily end up promoting UK projects as with Renewable Obligation? Significant quantities of wheat are exported which could be used for bioethanol. Land Area required for 5% by volume –~10000 – 12000 sq km – or 4-5% of total land area of UK. area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of Cambridgeshire combined What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is land area requirement sustainable? Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation for 2010

43. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Personal Mobility: Does Public Transport reduce car travel? 43 UK D More use of car > more total distance travelled. Greater distance by train > greater use of car. Compare UK with Germany switch UK car journeys to public transport at German levels. saving by train 1.01 M tonnes saving by bus 0.74 M tonnes Reducing mobility desire 9.22 M tonnes Suggests overriding issue is increased desire for mobility rather than significant switching of mode of transport. D UK D

44. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty seats 44 The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year. Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398 billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2. Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.

45. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Social Issues: First car share club in East Anglia EDP, June 2, 2006 However, some research of Cambridge scheme by Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is additional use not replacement use. 45

46. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction Conclusions 46 Are Biofuels an answer? To a limited extent BUT Government needs clearer statements on its commitments: e.g.RTFO. Where will buy out money go? Will it promote industry in UK? Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from increased RTFO? Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more effectively Reverse trend towards large engine cars Revisit the banding system and related taxation Social Dimension must not be overlooked. – Better education/awareness - driver behaviour. – Address issue of continual increases in desire for mobility. Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to reduce CO 2 ?

47. CRed carbon reduction CRed carbon reduction WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be available from tomorrow: > Follow the Academic Resources Link Conclusions Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."