1. The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea Nguyen Thi Lan Anh

2. China’s behaviour in the SCS 29/5 & 31/5/2011: Chinese boats Fei Sheng No. 16 and Vessel No. B12549 attempted to approach the rear deck of the Viking II seismic survey ship and interfere with its operations. 1/6/2011: Chinese military vessels threatened to use their guns against a Vietnamese fishing boat operating in waters near the Spratly archipelago. 9/6/2011: Chinese fishing boat No. 62226 equipped with a cable cutting device snared the cable of the Viking II operating in survey Block 136 ‐ 03 in the vicinity of Vanguard Bank (Tu Chinh). 6/7/2011: Armed Chinese naval troops beat the skipper of a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened the crew, and then forced the boat to leave contested waters near the Paracel Islands. 2009 2010 2011 2012

3. China Introduced New Vertical MAP

4. From U shape to emerging J shape line

5. Of course, the Oil rig was not about Oil

6. Johnson South Reef Construction

7.  2010  2020  2050 Coastal defense Near sea defense Blue water navy China Major Naval Power Dreams

8. Sri Lanka Pakistan Bangladesh Myanmar “String of Pearls” Anti-Piracy Chinese “9 Exits” toward Outer Sea “Int’l Express News” Apr 2010 2 nd Island Line 1 st Island Line Diego Garcia Guam Hawaii ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑨ China securing “exits” to the Oceans A2/AD

9. From U-shape to J-shape U-Shape Territory Historical rights Resources J-shape Territory Historical rights Resources Security zone Dominance China’s DREAM

10. China’s Domestic Politics First generation of leader not “hand picked” by Dang Xiao Ping Opening lots of fronts Power base: PLA and the mass (nationalist) PLA more powerful, control foreign policy

11. Territory Sovereign rights Resources Maritime power Supremacy and Dominance Nationalism Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin?

12. Territorial Disputes Maritime Disputes Resources Maritime power Supremacy and Dominance Nationalism Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin? Self Restraint Status quo UNCLOS Clarify claims Delimit boundaries Joint Developments Incidents Management Transparency Monitoring Trust building Manage Domestic Politics The role of public opinion and rules of the road

13. Thank you !