1. R E -B ALANCE TO A SIA : P ROSPECTS FOR M ARITIME S ECURITY IN THE I NDO -P ACIFIC 6 March 2013 Prof. K. L. Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org 1

2. A GENDA 1. Strategic Overview: Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific 2. What does an increased role for the United States look like? 3. Challenges & Opportunities in S&T engagement 2

3.  65% of World’s Navies  Over $100B committed until 2015 for new submarines  Up to 21 Large Deck units in build or planned 2 Large Deck 12 Subs 3 + 7 Subs? 6 Subs 2 Subs 4 Large Deck 12 Subs 3 Large Deck 15 Subs 48 Subs 2 Large Deck N AVAL U NITS R ECENT AND P LANNED 8 Subs? 2 Subs 2 + 6 Subs? 30 Subs 3 Large Deck 4 Large Deck? 3 Large Deck 33 subs? 6 Subs 1 Sub Proliferation of Blue-Water Middle Powers

4. Asian Dominance of Trade

6. 6 Lloyd’s Maritime Intelligence Unit, 2010 Asian Dominance of Trade

7. High trade volume, low trade density Asian Dominance of Trade

8. 1Shanghai, China29.0731.74 2Singapore, Singapore28.4329.94 3Hong Kong, China23.7024.38 4Shenzhen, China22.5122.57 5Busan, South Korea14.1816.17 6Ningbo-Zhoushan, China13.1414.72 7Guangzhou Harbor, China12.5514.26 8Qingdao, China12.0113.02 9Jebel Ali, Dubai11.6013.01 10Rotterdam11.1411.88 11Tianjin, China10.0811.59 12Kaohsiung, Taiwan9.189.64 13Port Kelang, Malaysia8.879.60 14Hamburg, Germany7.919.04 15Antwerp, Belgium8.478.66 16Los Angeles, U.S.A.7.837.94 17Keihin Ports, Japan*7.487.64 18Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia6.477.50 19Xiamen, China5.826.47 20Dalian, China5.246.40 Source: www.worldshipping.org, jan 2013 Ports, by TEU handled (millions) 2010 2011

9. 1Shanghai, China29.0731.74 2Singapore, Singapore28.4329.94 3Hong Kong, China23.7024.38 4Shenzhen, China22.5122.57 5Busan, South Korea14.1816.17 6Ningbo-Zhoushan, China13.1414.72 7Guangzhou Harbor, China12.5514.26 8Qingdao, Chin12.0113.02 9Jebel Ali, Dubai11.6013.01 10Rotterdam11.1411.88 11Tianjin, China10.0811.59 12Kaohsiung, Taiwan9.189.64 13Port Kelang, Malaysia8.879.60 14Hamburg, Germany7.919.04 15Antwerp, Belgium8.478.66 16Los Angeles, U.S.A.7.837.94 17Keihin Ports, Japan*7.487.64 18Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia6.477.50 19Xiamen, China5.826.47 20Dalian, China5.246.40 Ports, by TEU handled (millions) 2010 2011 Source: www.worldshipping.org, jan 2013

10. NWP 1-14M, U.S. Navy Contested Concept of the Commons

11. Taiwan Macclesfield Bank (PRC, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan) Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute (Japan, PRC, Taiwan) Take-shima/Dokdo Issue (Japan, ROK) Northern 4 Isls Issue (Japan, Russia) S OVEREIGNTY D ISPUTES IN E AST A SIA Spratly Isls ( Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Taiwan, PRC) Paracel Isls (PRC, Vietnam, Taiwan) ‘International Boundary’ announced by China EEZ Line (Japan) Map source: the University of Texas at Austin Northern Limit Line (UN) Thai-Cambodia Dispute

12. 1. Who owns the land features? 2. Where are the boundaries of EEZs and int’l waters? 3. What rights and responsibilities does jurisdiction confer? (What activities are legal)? 1.Territorial 2.Maritime 3.Jurisdictional 12 Contested Concept of the Commons: The SCS Disputes

13. 13 What Does an Increased Role for the United States look like? Underwriting the Status Quo: PresencePersistence Partners & Allies Parameters

14. Building partner capacity without remaking the partner Preparing for asymmetry of adversaries Resourcing the Back- Office for the long run Building partner capacity without remaking the partner Focus on shared interests, share-able technologies, easy-access platforms (real & virtual) Gray HullsWhite Hulls 14 Challenges & Opportunities: S&T Engagement

15. DISCUSSION Kerry Lynn Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org nankivellk@apcss.org (808) 564-5011

16. T HE Q UEST FOR R ESOURCES

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19. 19 Ladd Reef, Vietnam Occupied Spratly Islands 2007

20. 20 Mischief Reef, 2007 PRC Occupied

21. 21 Okino Torishima Japanese Occupied 2010

22. T ERRITORIAL S OVEREIGNTY D ISPUTES UNCLOS has no provisions on how to resolve disputes over which State has sovereignty over off-shore islands Territorial sovereignty disputes governed by principles of customary international law No dispute on territorial sovereignty can be referred to a Court or Tribunal without the CONSENT of all the parties to the dispute 22

23. C HINA ’ S CURRENT POSITION ? ? Three-Pronged Argument ? Sovereignty over all features (not just islands) and their adjacent territorial sea Sovereign Rights and Jurisdiction in the EEZ and Continental Shelf measured from the features Historical Rights and Jurisdiction (and control) over the natural resources in and under the waters within the 9- dased line, even within the EEZ of the coastal States 23

24. - In relation to EEZ movements by military and scientific vessels - The following are not clear on their legal position – or require consent for military uses in the EEZ: - India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Maldives, Philippines, Portugal, Uruguay, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kenya, (Thailand)…and others 24

25. 25 S OVEREIGNTY D ISPUTES IN S OUTH A SIA As adjudicated by ITLOS 14 Mar 2012

26. Unfriendly Neighbors: Beaufort Sea

27. 27