1. Alternative Transportation Futures Transportation Impacts of Possible Futures in the Willamette Valley

2. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Why Should We Care? By 2050, 1.7 million new residents are expected in the Valley – totaling nearly four million people.

3. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Continued prosperity and quality of life relate to our ability to get around safely and efficiently.

4. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum The Willamette Valley Livability Forum Alternative Transportation Futures Project

5. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Purpose 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth on transportation. 1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

6. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Guided by a 14-member Project Steering Committee Joan Baker, EPA Richard Brandman, Metro Susan Brody, WVLF Jon Chandler, OBIA Bob Cortright, DLCD Ed Gallagher, Governor's Community Development Office Community Development Office Craig Greenleaf, ODOT Chris Hagerbaumer, OTRAN Marcia Kelley, MWACT Gary Johnson, ODOT Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon Oregon Mike Propes, Polk County Board of Commissioners of Commissioners Bob Russell, OHUA Tom Schwetz, LCOG

7. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Approach Use state-of-art computer modeling techniquesUse state-of-art computer modeling techniques Examine effects of alternative land use and transportation policies on traffic congestion and travel behavior on major highways in the ValleyExamine effects of alternative land use and transportation policies on traffic congestion and travel behavior on major highways in the Valley Over next 50 yearsOver next 50 years

8. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Integrated Statewide Computer Model Analytical tool to help understand complex interactions among Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and transportation system

9. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum 122-Analysis Zone Structure Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional and city-to-city levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short- distance trips.

10. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Policy Choices Considered Urban land available for development Investments in highways and transit Cost of driving

11. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Evaluated Seven Scenarios To the year 2050To the year 2050 Same statewide population and employment forecastsSame statewide population and employment forecasts

12. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Scenarios Modeled No-ActionNo-Action Compact DevelopmentCompact Development Highway ExpansionHighway Expansion Transit ExpansionTransit Expansion Mileage TaxMileage Tax Hybrid 1Hybrid 1 Hybrid 2Hybrid 2

13. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum No-Action Scenario Urban expansion about the same rate as nowUrban expansion about the same rate as now No major highway or transit expansionNo major highway or transit expansion No mileage taxNo mileage tax

14. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Compact Development Scenario Urban development that achieves density targets in comprehensive plansUrban development that achieves density targets in comprehensive plans No major highway or transit expansionNo major highway or transit expansion No mileage taxNo mileage tax

15. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Highway Expansion Scenario Urban expansion about the same rate as nowUrban expansion about the same rate as now Add new lanes to congested state highwaysAdd new lanes to congested state highways –Maximum limits: ten-lane freeway in metropolitan areas; eight-lane freeways outside metropolitan areas; six-lane for other major thoroughfares No major transit expansionNo major transit expansion No mileage taxNo mileage tax

16. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Transit Expansion Scenario Urban expansion about the same rate as nowUrban expansion about the same rate as now No major highway expansionNo major highway expansion Major transit expansionMajor transit expansion –Commuter and frequent city-to-city passenger rail –City-to-city bus –Portland light-rail system extensions, including addition to Clark County, Washington –Bus rapid transit system in Eugene/Springfield No mileage taxNo mileage tax

17. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Mileage Tax Scenario Urban expansion about the same rate as nowUrban expansion about the same rate as now 20 cents/mile tax on autos and trucks traveling in the Willamette Valley20 cents/mile tax on autos and trucks traveling in the Willamette Valley No major highway or transit expansionNo major highway or transit expansion

18. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Hybrid Scenarios Recognizes one solution will not solve mobility and congestion issuesRecognizes one solution will not solve mobility and congestion issues Elements of five previous scenarios combined into two hybridsElements of five previous scenarios combined into two hybrids

19. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Hybrid 1 Compact developmentCompact development Full transit expansionFull transit expansion Expansion of rural highwaysExpansion of rural highways Graduated mileage tax – 10 cents/mile in 2005; 20/mile cents in 2025Graduated mileage tax – 10 cents/mile in 2005; 20/mile cents in 2025 Hybrid 2 Compact developmentCompact development Partial highway and transit expansionPartial highway and transit expansion Graduated mileage tax – 5 cents/mile in 2005;Graduated mileage tax – 5 cents/mile in 2005; 10 cents/mile in 2025

20. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum What have we learned so far?

21. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum If recent development trends continue and there are no policy changes by 2050, traffic congestion will increase by 81 percent.

22. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Compact development alone has little effect in alleviating traffic congestion for longer trips on the Valley’s major highways and throughways.

23. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Improvements to the transportation system and strategies that encourage the use of alternative forms of transportation are needed.

24. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum By itself, increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 16 percent.

25. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Alone, adding highway lanes can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 12 percent.

26. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum On its own, increasing the cost of driving by 20 cents/mile reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels by 15 percent.

27. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum But, most significantly we learned that...

28. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum No single approach is as effective in keeping traffic moving as instituting a combination of policy changes.

29. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum The most effective hybrid scenario increased the cost of driving to a greater extent and targeted infrastructure investments to support transit ridership.

30. There’s No Silver Bullet Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.

31. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.

32. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Other Effects on Transportation

33. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum No single approach is as effective in limiting declines in travel speed as is instituting a combination of policy changes.

34. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum The hybrid approach provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobility.

35. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum A mileage tax increases transit usage and can generate revenue to finance transportation improvements.

36. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Effects on Population and Employment Distribution

37. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.

38. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.

39. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Next Steps

40. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum The Forum will: Review public reaction and comment on the project’s findingsReview public reaction and comment on the project’s findings Further examine the data to understand their implicationsFurther examine the data to understand their implications Identify policy choices to help avoid or minimize future adverse impacts of growth on transportationIdentify policy choices to help avoid or minimize future adverse impacts of growth on transportation Present recommendations to public officials and the publicPresent recommendations to public officials and the public

41. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum It’s Time To Hear From You What are your reactions to the findings?What are your reactions to the findings? Given the results of the research, what strategies or actions would you recommend?Given the results of the research, what strategies or actions would you recommend?