1. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 1 Estimating total mileage at the national level Estimating total mileage at the national level Modelling versus mobility survey Modelling versus mobility survey adupont@inrets.fr, DEST armoogum@inrets.fr, DEST

2. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 2 Contents of the presentation Introduction: comparing estimation of the French road demand for 1993 Presentation of the Kilom model Presentation of the NTS Results Conclusions

3. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 3 Introduction Estimating the total mileage and its evolution by types of vehicles is a corner stone of the understanding of the mobility at the national level. In France, we can estimate the road demand by two ways: using the KILOM model or with the National Travel Surveys (NTS)

4. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 4 Introduction The Kilom model: the total mileage estimation is based on the vehicle fleet and on fuel consumption, fuel price and average fuel consumption. This KILOM model set up for France for 1957- 1993 and now updated to 2005.

5. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 5 Introduction The French NTS 1993-1994: 3 ways to estimate the total mileage: from the vehicle fleet description where we asked the annual mileage by type of activities for each household’s vehicle from the car diary, in each household we have selected one car and all drivers of the selected car have to fill the car diary from the description of the daily mobility, in each household one person was selected to describe the mobility he had experienced the day before the interview. These three estimations can be crossed.

6. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 6 The KILOM model What is estimated? a monthly estimation of the road demand i.e. the total mileage on any find of road networks and for all kind of road engines. for the whole French territory (excluding Corsica and the overseas territories) An estimation putting in balance fuel deliveries and actual consumption of fuel

7. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 7 The KILOM model (continue) For 5 categories of vehicles 1/ cars for personal and professional uses 2/ pick up weighted under 5 tones 3/ trucks weighted over 5 tones (a distinction being set up between the 5 t to 10 t lorries and the lorries over 10 t) 4/ bus and coaches 5/ motorized two-wheels.

8. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 8 The KILOM model (continue) The conceptual architecture of the model:

9. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 9 The KILOM model (continue) Two steps of computation: 1/ to collect and compute the input series 2/ to compute the monthly estimation by 5 modulus (output series)

10. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 10 The KILOM model (continue) 1/ the FLEET modulus 2/ the CONSO modulus 3/ the ESCAPES modulus which computes the monthly correction of the fuel deliveries by the escapes at the borders based on the monthly variation of prices 4/ the KILOMMOY modulus which gives a seasonal index of mileage for each category of vehicles 5/ the CALCULATION modulus which estimates KP1 on the KM=CT/CU and gives a monthly mileage for each category of vehicles in France

11. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 11 Short presentation of the French NTS (1/2) The French National Passenger Travel Survey (French NPTS) 1993-94 is the fourth survey conducted by INSEE since mid sixties on this topic. It retains the definitions and the essential principles used previously to maintain the statistic continuity over time. Its purpose is to describe the trips made by households living in France. Specifically, it attempts to capture all trips made, whatever their purpose, mode of transport, length, period in the year or time of the day. It also includes questions about the level of access to public transport and the ownership of private vehicles by each household.

12. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 12 Short presentation of the French NTS (2/2) The French NTS is organised with the 3 main following topics :  Trips description ;  knowledge the household car fleet and car used ;  Accessibility to public transport and fare subscription to PT As there are many data collection instruments, the mileage can be computed from : Vehicle fleet description (card-index) car diary Description of the daily mobility

13. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 13 Short presentation of the French NTS (2/2) The French NTS is organised with the 3 main following topics :  Trips description ;  knowledge the household car fleet and car used ;  Accessibility to public transport and fare subscription to PT As there are many data collection instruments, the mileage can be computed from : Vehicle fleet description (card-index) car diary Description of the daily mobility

14. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 14 Mileage from Vehicle fleet description The car card-index concerns any type of vehicles that are at disposal of the household (about 19000 card-index in the NTS 1993-94): - private car - camper - pick up trucks - little cars (car being driven without a licence) - quadricycle, motorised tricycle.. Note that for cars at disposal since less than one year (new purchase cars) in the household the reported mileage is the mileage since the purchase.

15. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 15 Results The KILOM model 1957-1995 1/ the increasing mileage of cars and trucks all over the period, not only because of the increasing size of the light vehicles fleet, but mainly because of the increasing mobility of the French population (as a consequence of various factors as the urban sprawl, the increase of vacations days); 2/ the evolution of the composition of the “light vehicles” fleet: a substitution has taken place between gasoline engines and diesel one, due to the law price of diesel comparing to the price of gasoline.

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17. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 17 Results (continue) The French NTS 1993: In each household we have selected one car, and all drivers had to fill the diary during 7 days (there was few non-response, about 10% of the motorised household refused to fill the 7 days, 197000 trips recorded). With this survey instrument we can compute also the overall total distance travelled by car.

18. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 18 Results: NTS vs Kilom In million Gazolin e DieselTotalGazolin e DieselTotal Pers. Cars 190472100560291032226985132271359256 Pick up Cars 89552157430529166116189478504 Total199427122134321561243596194165437760

19. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 19 conclusions The KiILOM model and the NTS: two kind of long term analyses which are not competing but on the contrary which are complementary A dynamic understanding of road demand and mobility A cross-section analysis of the determinants of the road demand and mobility Discrepancies can be explained: Differences in scope Differences in methodolgy Measurement errors

20. COST 355 Madrid mai 2007 20 Thank for your attention Questions and comments are expected