1. TRANSITION, TRANSFORMATION, AND DEMOCRATISATION IN THE MENA REGION 15th October, 2014 – CESEDEN, Madrid Professor Christian W Haerpfer President of World Values Survey Association-WVSA First Chair of Politics Department of Politics and International Relations University of Aberdeen Director of ArabTrans ‘Political and Social Transformations in the Arab World’ research program

2. First Wave: American and French Revolutions in 18 th century until 1930 Second Wave: Post Second World War 1945 – 1967 Third Wave: 1968 – 2009 Southern Europe, Post-Communist Europe and Post-Soviet Eurasia Forth Wave: 2010 - * MENA Region & Asia Waves of Democratisation

3. Commencement: Youth Revolution of May 1968 First sub-wave: Portugal, Spain, Greece in early 1970’s Democratization in post-communist Europe: 1989 – 2009 20 years of political transformation Third Wave of Democratisation

4. November 1989: Start of democratization in Central and South-East Europe January 1992: Beginning of democratization in Eastern Europe and collapse of Soviet Union Third Wave of Democratisation

5. December, 2010: Beginning of protests in Tunisia & Algeria 2011-2014: Protests and uprisings in Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Yemen; civil war & disorder in Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Iraq 2014: Authoritarian regimes overthrown in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt & Yemen; governmental changes introduced in Jordan, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Morocco; on- going changes in most of MENA countries Forth Wave of Democratisation

6. Waves of Democratization

7. Global Distribution of Political Regimes, 1972-2012

8. Distribution of Political Regimes in MENA, 1972-2012

9. Democracy in World Regions

10. Stage 1: Decline of Ancient Regime Stagnation and decline between 2000 and 2010 Stages of Democratisation

11. Stage 2: Liberalisation of Ancient Regime Perestroika and Glasnost in Soviet Union 1985 – 1991 Attempts of liberalisation in Jordan, Morocco Stages of Democratisation

12. Stage 3: Regime Transition Non-violent transition in Tunisia, Egypt Violent transition in Iraq, Syria, Libya Stages of Democratisation

13. Stage 4: Creation / Birth of new political regime, mostly a ‘new democracy’ Triple transition of society, economy and politics Stages of Democratisation

14. Stage 5: Consolidation of new and partial democracy towards a full and complete democracy Stages of Democratisation

15. Path 1: From new democracy towards consolidated democracy Tunisia Dynamics of Democratisation

16. Path 2: From new democracy towards ‘Electoral Democracy’ Jordan, Algeria, Morocco Dynamics of Democratisation

17. Path 3: From new democracy via Electoral Democracy towards ‘Competitive Autocracy’ Egypt Dynamics of Democratisation

18. Path 4: From new democracy via Competitive Autocracy towards ‘Full Autocracy’ ??? Dynamics of Democratisation

19. Path 1: New democracy towards consolidated democracy Path 2: New democracy towards electoral democracy Path 3: New democracy towards competitive autocracy Path 4: From new democracy towards full autocracy Dynamics of Democratisation

20. Level 1: consolidated democracy – Tunisia Level 2: electoral democracy – Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, Jordan Level 3: competitive autocracy – Egypt Level 4: full autocracy – Saudi Arabia Levels of Democratisation

21. Democratization = open process of political transformation, not an inevitable and necessary transition towards democracy Democratization can lead to democracy but also to autocracy and hybrid political regimes Transformation and Democratisation

22. Transition = Stage 3 of Democratization Regime from non-democratic regime to democratic regime Transition is not automatic historical process towards democracy and free market economy Transition is not the ‘end of history’ (F. Fukuyama) Transition is not blind and automatic process towards full democracy Transition = Stage 3 of Transformation within the process of Democratization Transition and Democratisation

23. Three Processes of Transformation on Three levels Field of Transformation Political RegimeSocial SystemCivil Society Process of Transformation Democratisation Social modernisation Development of civil society Level of Transformation Political SystemSocial SystemCivic System a. Macro-level Political institutions and parties Social institutions and factors Civic institutions (Media, Trades Unions, Churches) b. Meso-level Political activities Social activities Forms of public participation, NGOs c. Micro-level Citizens and voters Social actors and households, families Social networks

24. Countries in open-ended democratization processes: Tunisia Egypt Libya Syria Future of Democracy

25. Elections in Tunisia 2011

26. Importance of Politics for personal life (Percentage ‘Very Important’ & ‘Important; source: WVS-6) #Country% 1Egypt75% 2Bahrain70% 3Qatar67% 4Kuwait59% 5Libya57% 6Palestine50% 7Lebanon47% 8Yemen44% 9Jordan40% 10Iraq42% 11Tunisia40% 12Algeria39% 13Morocco16% TOTALMENA AVERAGE51%

27. Interest in Politics (Percentage ‘Very interested’ & ‘Interested’; source: WVS-6) #Country% 1Egypt74% 2Qatar69% 3Bahrain65% 4Kuwait61% 5Palestine60% 6Libya59% 7Lebanon54% 8Yemen49% 9Iraq47% 10Tunisia42% 11Jordan39% 12Algeria36% 13Morocco15% TOTALMENA AVERAGE52%

28. #Country Importance of democracy How democratically is country today 1Jordan8,296,69 2Algeria8,125,79 3Lebanon8,005,76 4Yemen8,495,08 5Iraq7,954,58 6Egypt8,954,58 7Palestine7,784,46 8Libya8,134,31 9Morocco8,494,29 10Tunisia8,463,92 11Bahrain7,22N/A 12Kuwait8,17N/A 13Qatar8,33N/A MENA AVERAGE 8,194,90 Assessments of Democracy (MEANS according to scale from 1 to 10 where “1” is the lowest mark and “10” – the highest; source: WVS-6)

29. Thank you for your attention! Christian W Haerpfer c.w.haerpfer@abdn.ac.uk www.arabtrans.eu