1. Core Cities – only recently show a jobs gain over other areas Alan Townsend, Professor of Regional Regeneration & Development Studies, Durham University (with Prof Tony Champion, CURDS, Newcastle University)

2. GB Industrial Communities under Globalisation I worked in DTI on defining government Assisted Areas And as Chair of Regeneration in Wear Valley District 1998-2008 We lost 58.1% of factory jobs, 1998-2008 The 23 English Districts most dependent on coal lost 32.3% of manufacturing then, compared with GB, 32.9% The Districts shared in the GB total increase in all jobs by virtue of Part-time employment in Services Unlike GB they have failed to recover their 2008 totals (either manufacturing or total jobs) in latest data They failed to get many jobs through travel to Core Cities after 1981

3. The fashionable consensus around “agglomeration” “Under globalisation we can barely sustain more than the capital City Region”; if we can it’s a second belt including Manchester; or its City Region?; or its Local Authority core? Mainly Respublica, LSE, Treasury, but suffers wider disbelief among researchers closer to the evidence The “Core Cities Group” was able to persist with current government Industrial “clusters” were exaggerated by RDAs Local firms do not necessarily trade with each other, e.g. Teesdale Business Park generates only 38% Teesside sales Research on agglomeration; “doubling the size of a conurbation” only increases production by 3.5%. Now we look at employment So what is the contention over Cities?; is it a better past performance? Is it the potential for a better performance? Or just the need?

4. “Bigger cities have not grown faster” R. Martin, Cambridge University Annual average % change, 1981-2011, 63 Primary Urban Areas, GB, ranked All in employment decline, GBLeading “northern” Cities in growth Burnley (-0.7% p.a)Telford (NT)(+2.1% p.a.) HullWarrington (NT) LIVERPOOLCardiff StokePreston (NT) DundeeLEEDS BirkenheadDoncaster SunderlandYork BIRMINGHAMNewport BlackpoolEdinburgh GrimsbyAberdeen (+0.5% p.a.) Blackburn Middlesbrough Wigan (-0.1% p.a.)Source; ONS ; “NT” = New Town

5. City Regions, GB, after Coombes at el (1999 & later)

6. Travel-to-work of 8 Core Cities of England, 1981-2011, thousands Source: Censuses of Population Source: Censuses of Population Workplace population Daily travel IN Daily travel OUT %Commuting IN 1981 Males1276.0499.4195.439.1 2011 Males1182.5466.0280.2 39.4 1981 Females905.4264.360.029.2 2011 Females1031.1415.7191.840.3

7. The 9 Core City Local Authorities versus rest of City Regions Employment as full-time equivalents, 1984=100

8. But Core Cities bounce up in the recovery Percentage change, 2010-4 year-ending Sept.,source ONS (LFS), by workplace; thus, all data from here include the Self-Employed Core Cities Rest of Great Britain City Regions 2010-2 Full-time -1.6% -0.1%+0.5% Part-time -0.1% +4.7%+2.4% FTE -1.4% +0.7%+0.8% 2012-4 Full-time +8.3% +1.8% +4.2% Part-time +3.4% -0.01%+2.3% FTE +7.6%* +1.4% +3.9% *Led by business and professional services, property development, head offices, employment agencies, call centres, and some miscellaneous entertainment, restaurants and personal services

9. The bigger individual cities have grown faster Percentage change, 2012-4 (Sept.), by workplace All Core Cities All other leading “northern” Cities (PUAs) in growth Leeds10.3% York15.1% Manchester10.3% Cardiff 7.5% Glasgow 9.2% Aberdeen 7.2% Sheffield 8.6% Rochdale 6.6% Newcastle 8.5% Bradford 6.5% Birmingham 7.3% Wakefield 6.5% Liverpool 5.9% Edinburgh 5.6% Bristol 3.3% Swansea 5.5% Nottingham 1.9% Wigan 4.8% All northern in decline: Huddersfield (-10.5%); Burnley; Sunderland; Hull; Newport; Grimsby; Dundee; Bolton; Telford (-0.1%) Source ONS (LFS)

10. Change in FTEs for GB, 3-zones & Core Cities vs Rest, 2008-14, % for period

11. Change in FTEs for Britain beyond the City Regions, 2008-14, % for period

12. Change in FTEs for 10 City Regions, 2008-14, % for period

13. Conclusions on the organisers’ questions Are the numerous towns beyond the cities to become just dormitories for commuters? No, the longer term trend is for more female, not male, inward commuting Is overspill from the cities the only way in which the rest of the country can be expected to grow in future? From 1981 “New Towns” have done best for jobs, but there remains an urban-rural drift Or can the places beyond the big cities be centres of economic growth in their own right? Examples tend to be larger communication and service centres, when others have a longer-term lack of business services and skills And is it true anyway that the big cities are performing so much better than the rest of the country? The evidence is actually much more complex. Core Cities‘ importance was the volume of growth, not a higher average rate than adjoining areas. But 2012-4 have seen Core Cities expand much faster in FTEs, especially compared with the rest of northern England. NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST AT THAT RATE, partly low-productivity rebound

14. Implications for Devolved Governance From an employment point-of-view we do need Strategic Planning, whether with Combined Authorities, or LEP AREAS modified as “City and County Regions” (SEPs were only “bidding documents”?) A code of conduct for employment forecasts and numeracy in relating to demography and transport But, having Chaired both Regeneration and Planning Committees, it’s not, this time, “the economy at all costs” and a business park at every M junction New employment sites must relate equally to the social map – access to deprived areas in Index of Multiple Deprivation – and to the environment (as per clause in NPPF)

16. Newcastle-upon-Tyne City area Total employment 2012 2014 Change Energy & water 2,100 1,700 -400 Manufacturing 11,200 10,800 -400 Construction 12,800 16,000 + 3,200 Distribution, cafes etc 37,800 39,800 +2,000 Transport etc. 20,200 20,700 + 500 Banking, finance et 35,500 43,000 +7,500 Public services 79,500 85,200 +5,500 Other services 11,500 10,900 -600 TOTAL210,600 228,100 +17,500 Including Self-employed 13,500 19,400 +5,900