1. The missing lynx - restoring Scotland’s By Dr David Hetherington
forgotten cat
By Dr David Hetherington
Peter Cairns

3. European distribution
Reintroduced
Populations
Natural
European distribution
of Eurasian lynx
Karl Weber

4. Why consider reintroducing lynx to Scotland?
Ethical Moral responsibility to restore species that we as
humans, made extinct
Legal The UK is obliged by Bern Convention, Rio
Convention & EU Habitats Directive to consider
the feasibility of reintroducing extinct species
Ecological Restoring top predator to ecosystem may help to
reduce damage by deer
Economic Reducing deer densities can reduce damage to
forestry and agriculture. Lynx could contribute to
wildlife tourism

5. When and how did the lynx become extinct in Scotland, and have conditions improved for lynx since then?

6. IUCN Guidelines for Re-introductions
“Identification and
elimination, or
reduction to a
sufficient level,
of previous causes
of decline…”

7. Late Glacial
Post-glacial
Historic
Undated
The distribution of historic and prehistoric remains of lynx in Britain

8. After Curry-Lindahl (1951)
The distribution
of lynx in Europe
around 1800
After Curry-Lindahl (1951)
and Kratochvil (1968)

9. Decline of Forest Cover in Scotland
75% forest cover in mid Holocene
Permanent deforestation occurred in far north and west BP due to wetter climate
Anthropogenic clearance begun by mesolithic
communities but occurs on large scale during Bronze
and Iron Ages
>50% of forest cleared by year 1 AD
Destruction, helped by woodland grazing of livestock, continued until last area of extensive forests, in the Grampians, were all but cleared from

10. Forest cover by the late 18th and 19th centuries for selected
European countries
Hungary 30%
Switzerland 19%
France 14%
Scotland 4%

11. Modern Scotland
20th Century afforestation means forest cover now 20% for Scottish mainland
The aim is to have 25% forest cover for the whole of Scotland by 2050, with a focus now on Forest Habitat Networks
Roe, non-native sika and red deer now
widespread and numerous in woodland
All 3 species occur at high densities, often
creating problems for ecology and for forestry
All 3 species are potential prey for lynx

12. Study by Breitenmoser & Haller (1993) in the Swiss Alps
showed:
Lynx at colonising front had much smaller home ranges
than lynx in the established core distribution
One male and one female made 75% of their kills in a
8.5km2 area at the colonising front, while a male and female
in the established core made their kills over a 142km2 area
Local chamois population at the front decreased from
within 6 years

13. Prey spectrum of lynx in the Swiss Jura
(from Jobin et al., 2000)
Prey species
Number
of kills found %
of prey items
Roe deer
Chamois
Red fox
Brown hare
Marmot
Pine marten
Badger
Domestic cat
Wild cat
Capercaillie
69.3
21.5
6.0
2.0
0.2
428
133 37 13 1

14. Sheep production in Scotland
High densities in southern
Scotland, but low densities in
the north and west
Vast majority of sheep now
grazed in open pasture

15. Lynx depredation on sheep in
Switzerland
Number of sheep killed

18. Peter Cairns
Peter Cairns

19. The extinction of lynx in Scotland was not caused
by climate change, and probably occurred during
the Middle Ages
Early and severe deforestation, a decline in deer
populations and persecution due to predation on
woodland-grazed livestock are likely to have been
the most significant factors
These factors no longer operate in the modern
Scottish landscape

20. How many lynx could Scotland support?

21. Analysis of Habitat System or GIS
Conducted using a Geographical Information
System or GIS
Most habitat data was drawn from the Swiss Alps
due to the high quality of data available and the
environmental similarity to much of Scotland.

22. One female territory only
45-74 km2
100km
One female territory only
Total area = km2
km2
At least one male and one
female
Total area = 3,172.4 km2
550 km2 +
Could support >20 lynx
Total area = 17,139.3 km2

23. Connectivity Analysis

24. Scotland Northern Scotland 14,994.4 km2 Southern Scotland
5,327 km2 (6,144.4 km2
if including Kielder Forest)
Scotland
20,321.4 km2

25. Wild ungulate biomass and lynx densities from selected areas in Europe
available to
lynx (kg km-2)
Lynx
100km-2
Source area
Ungulates km-2
Central Norway
Swiss Jura
Swiss Alps
Bialowieza, Poland
Scottish Highlands
Southern Uplands
0.2 roe, reindeer, sheep
7.2 roe, chamois
7.7 roe, chamois
4.7 roe, red deer
7.4 roe; red deer; sika, fallow
5.5 roe; red deer; fallow

26. Ungulate biomass kg km-2
The relationship between lynx density and wild
ungulate density for four areas in Europe.
Lynx 100km-2
Ungulate biomass kg km-2

27. Scotland total Average lynx population densities of 2.63 and 0.83
100 km-2 are predicted for
the Highlands and Southern
Uplands respectively.
Giving:
100km
Highlands
394 lynx
Southern Uplands
51 lynx
Scotland total
445 lynx

28. An extinction risk of 5% or less was considered acceptable
Population Viability Analysis (PVA)
What is the Minimum Viable Population (MVP) size for lynx?
Used RAMAS/age software
Model employed good quality
life history data from real lynx
populations across Europe
The risk of extinction during
100-year period after reaching
carrying capacity was explored
for a range of theoretical
population sizes
An extinction risk of 5% or less was considered acceptable

29. Probability of persistence over 100 years for a range of
Probability of persistence over 100 years for a range of
population sizes at carrying capacity
Population
Pessimistic
Intermediate
Optimistic 50
35.6
66.0
84.4
100
76.8
90.4
95.8
150
85.8
93.0
97.4
200
90.8
96.6
250
97.0
98.2
300
93.4
96.8
98.6
350
92.0
400
96.0
99.0
450
97.6
500
95.0
98.4
550
97.2
600

30. Highlands - 394 lynx - VIABLE Southern Uplands - 51 lynx – NON- VIABLE
100km
Average lynx population predicted for the Highlands and Southern Uplands:
Highlands lynx - VIABLE
Southern Uplands - 51 lynx – NON- VIABLE

31. Wildlife corridor – for lynx
Andreas Ryser

32. Conclusions Lynx are native to Scotland, but humans made them
extinct by the late Middle Ages
Large amount of well-connected potential
habitat available
High densities of prey suggest habitat could
support around 450 lynx in two populations
A Southern Uplands population must be connected
to the Highlands population
The Highlands could support a viable lynx population

33. Acknowledgements Dr Martyn Gorman, University of Aberdeen
 Urs Breitenmoser
Dr Martyn Gorman, University of Aberdeen
The Highland Foundation for Wildlife
KORA Carnivore Research, Switzerland
Northshots