1. Demographic Transition Model 10/8
Bell-ringer:
What information is this graph displaying?
Give one fact that you can determine from this graph?

2. Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
(Some mention a new 5th stage)

3. Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”
High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)
NIR = 0 or very slow rate
No country or world region still in Stage One. STAGE ONE – Agrarian society, lots of deaths from famine and disease.

4. Stage 2: “Early Industrial”
High birth rates (over 30) but death rates begin to decline (to about 20)
NIRs increase sharply (pop. explosion); growth rate increases throughout Stage Two
Growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths
MDCs = starts early 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1950s

5. Why move from Stage 1 to Stage 2?
REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would more people live longer (lower CDR), NOT why would more people be born (higher CBR)?

6. Stage 3: “Later Industrial”
Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) and Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less)
Pop. Growth occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate
MDCs = starts in late 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1980s*
* Or hasn’t started yet

7. Why move from Stage 2 to Stage 3?
REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would the birth rate drop rapidly once the CDR has been reduced?
Why would this happen at different times in MDC and LDC?

8. Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”
Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)
Population growth very low or zero (ZPG – zero population growth)
MDCs = starts after 1970s
LDCs = hasn’t started yet
Much of Europe now or soon in population decline
as birth rates drop far below replacement level

9. Population Pyramids: 5 things you notice. What does this image show you?

10. Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice
Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice. What is DIFFERENT about this pyramid?

11. Vertical axis: Age groups
Elderly Dependents
Working populations
Young dependents
Horizontal Axis:Percentage/number people

12. Dependency Ratio – Ratio of dependents to the working population
SO WHAT?