1. Municipal Solid Waste: global trends and the World Bank portfolio Dan Hoornweg Associate Professor and Jeffrey Boyce Research Chair in Faculty of Energy Systems, University of Ontario Institute of Technology February 2013 1

2. What a Waste - Purpose Introduces first global assessment of MSW: quantity, composition, and forecast. Data collection – From academic, governmental, NGO sources – Problems: data availability, consistent definitions Projections of MSW generation in 2025 based on GDP growth and urban population projections Methods

3. Waste Generation by Region (Current) 1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier” China produces 70% of EAP region waste

4. Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025) 2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase) Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier * Bubble size proportional to total urban population

5. Waste Generation and Urbanization, to 2100 Hoornweg and Bhada Tata, forthcoming

6. Solid Waste Composition by Income and Year

7. Waste composition Affected by: Geography: building materials, ash content (HH heating), green waste. Climate: Ulan Bator, Mongolia ash is 60% of the MSW in winter, 20% in summer. Income: Wealthier nations have more complex waste, lower organic content Culture: differences in food consumed (eg, packaged or fresh), electronic equipment used changes nature of waste

8. Waste collection rates vary by income, region Collection rates 45%-99%; ranges within regions large. Increasing waste collection is priority in low-income regions to mitigate public health and environmental risks. Waste collection rates by region Range in waste collection rates by income

9. Waste disposal Landfilling most popular waste technology – 350 Mt/year. Less dumping, but environmental & health impacts large. Higher income nations use a variety of waste technologies Much recycling in lower-income nations goes unmeasured

10. Waste Management costs are increasing 10 Biggest proportional increase in low (and low-middle) income nations Total now = $205 billion Total in 2025 = $376 billion

11. 11 2010: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t) Waste Management costs: assumptions

12. 12 2025: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t) Projected (study) Waste Management costs: assumptions

13. 13 2025: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t) Projected (study) Modest increases assumed uniform by income group (e.g., low, lower-middle, etc.) Waste Management costs: assumptions

14. Low income nations pay large fraction of MSW budget for collection 14 They focus on collection – pay little for other waste technologies But have lowest collection rates Higher income invest in downstream technologies too

15. Waste & the environment: local & global 15 At local scale, Open dumping contributes to clogged drains (flooding), water contamination, and attracts disease vectors. Open burning produces air pollutants (eg, PM, Hg) and degrades water quality (esp through e-waste) At global scale, Open dumping/uncapped landfills produce ~10% of global methane released. Open burning produces dioxins, furans, mercury – globally mixed, persistent contaminants.

16. Waste & climate change WM accounts for ~ 5% of total global GHG emissions Landfilling biggest source – 12% of global methane comes from LFs Growing in dev. nations; emissions vary by country (composition, climate, disposal practices) Waste technologies offer GHG mitigation opportunity: Recycling, anaerobic digestion, reuse, reduction, waste as fuel

17. 17 Bank SW Portfolio is growing ERLs, Avian flu Ganga River Project ($210M)

18. Bank loans & grants: most have ‘minor’ focus on SW 18 (Other) Loans All Grants # projects

19. Major Focus projects focus on ends of value chain 19

20. Bank Waste & Carbon Finance projects are mostly LFG 20 Bank has 147 registered CDM projects 30 are SWM Majority are LFG

21. Concluding thoughts 1.Need integrated approach to WM – it’s not just about landfilling (though safe disposal is an integral part of solution. 2.Work now to reduce waste generation and increase waste reuse and recycling [through EPR, pay-as-you-throw, developing markets for compost, integrating informal sector]

22. Thank You