1. An Explanation of the Comprehensive Emergency Management System and the role of Social Science in Developing Performance Measures to Achieve the Homeland Security Mission May 5, 2010 Prepared By: Dan Catlett National Hurricane Program Manager

2. comprehensive emergency management system “Reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man- made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation.” -- Both PKEMRA and The FEMA Strategic Plan (February 2008) The Statutory FEMA Mission: Increase the Nation’s “Resilience” by Leading and Supporting the “Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

3. support our citizens and first responders capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards” “FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards” -- W. Craig Fugate, Administrator (6/17/09) The New FEMA Mission: Support our Citizens and First Responders to “Build, Sustain and Improve our Capability.”

4. capability “(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295) “Emergency Management” PKEMRA Definition:

5. capability “The term ‘capability’ means the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks under specific conditions and to specific performance standards. A capability may be achieved with any combination of properly planned, organized, equipped, trained, and exercised personnel that achieves the intended outcome.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295) Capability PKEMRA Definition: “Capability”

6. Operational Capacity Risk Expectations Capability is the Operational Capacity (“the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks”) to manage the consequences or Risk from a hazard or threat (“under specific conditions”) to satisfy prevailing Expectations or performance standards (“to specific performance standards.”) Capability An alternative, Simplified Definition of Emergency Management “ Capability ”:

7. The “Capability Formula” EMC = OC – (R+X) Emergency Management Capability equals Operational Capacity minus the sum of Rx Risk plus Expectations

8. Definition of Terms: Operational Capacity = Personnel, Equipment, Facilities, Systems, Processes, Preparations, and the Readiness to use them.Operational Capacity = Personnel, Equipment, Facilities, Systems, Processes, Preparations, and the Readiness to use them. Risk = Hazard (or “Threat”) x Vulnerability x Consequences (Note: This Goes A Step Beyond “HIRA”)Risk = Hazard (or “Threat”) x Vulnerability x Consequences (Note: This Goes A Step Beyond Traditional “Hazard Identification/Risk Assessment” or “HIRA”) Expectations (or “Expectations Risk”)=Expectations (or “Expectations Risk”)= –Internal: Employee and partner attitudes, beliefs and “conventional wisdom,” etc.); –External: Legislative priorities, academic, media “spin” and public perceptions, etc.; and –Formal: Measurable Strategic Outcomes and Outputs

9. Challenge #1: “ Capability ” cannot be effectively determined without a standardized determinations of Capacity, Risk or Expectations.” Consequently “ Capacity ” often gets measured, then labeled “ Capability.”

10. Challenge # 2: Unity of Effort is the product of Unity of Purpose; Common Operating Picture is the product of a A Common Operating Picture is the product of a Common Planning Picture.

11. BOTH Unity of Purpose And a Common Planning Picture. are dependent on a common, consensus standards for assessing Capacity, Risk and Expectations -based Capability

12. The Solution: Standardized assessments of Capacity, Risk and Expectations – included the development of a “planning level event” – to create consistent planning assumptions (NOT planning formats/guidelines such as the TCL, the IPS, etc.) for the Comprehensive Emergency Management System

13. PRE-Event The “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System” -- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1]) POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT Strategy Development & Process Planning (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

14. PRE-Event The “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System” -- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1]) POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY: “Operational Readiness” Unity of PURPOSE Common PLANNING Picture DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” Unity of EFFORT Common OPERATING Picture EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT Strategy Development & Process Planning (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

15. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) SupplementOperational Capacity ResponseRecovery Supplement Operational Capacity via Response & Recovery Operations, such as Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National Response Framework utilization. IncreaseOperational Effectiveness Preparedness Increase Operational Effectiveness via traditional " Preparedness Cycle” Activities such as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc. BUILD CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT PROTECT RESPOND Permanently Reduce Risk Mitigation Permanently Reduce Risk from future events via traditional Mitigation measures such as: Land Use and Building Regulation, Structural Retrofit, permanent risk reduction projects, etc. MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVER Temporarily Reduce Risk response Protective Temporarily Reduce Risk in response to a present threat via “ Protective Actions” – Population Protection (i.e. evacuation, sheltering, SAR, etc.) as well as temporary risk reduction measures (shutters, sandbags, levee fortification, etc.) DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” Strategy Development & Process Planning (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

16. S E S EE S - TIME + - CAPABILITY + S E = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT READINESS POST-EVENT OPERATIONS “SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME

17. S E S EE S - TIME + - CAPABILITY + S E = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT READINESS POST-EVENT OPERATIONS “MULTI-HAZARD/EVENT” CAPABILITY-BUILDING S E S E S S E S E S S E S E S

18. S E S EE S - TIME + - CAPABILITY + S E = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT READINESS POST-EVENT OPERATIONS “SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME

19. S E S E Katrina S - TIME + CAPABILITY + S E = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT - = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

20. S E S E Katrina S - TIME + S E = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING CAPABILITY + PKEMRA -

21. Homeland Security How Does Homeland Security figure into Emergency Management Capability Building? $3+ Billion Dollar Now, the $3+ Billion Dollar Question:

22. Homeland Security Defined: “Homeland Security is a concerted national effort to prevent terrorist attacks within the United States, reduce America's vulnerability to terrorism, and minimize the damage and recover from attacks that do occur.” -- National Strategy for Homeland Security (October 2007) “Homeland Security” vs. “Emergency Management” Emergency Management Defined: “(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (“PKEMRA”, P.L. 109-295)

23. FEMA Mission Defined: “Reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation.” -- PKEMRA and The FEMA Strategic Plan (February 2008) DHS Mission Defined: “ We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-flow of commerce.” -- The DHS Strategic Plan (February 2004) “DHS Mission” vs. “FEMA Mission”

24. “Prevention” and “Emergency Management” Emergency Management Defined: “(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (“PKEMRA”, P.L. 109-295) Prevention Defined: The term ‘‘prevention’’ means any activity undertaken to avoid, prevent, or stop a threatened or actual act of terrorism. -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (“PKEMRA”, P.L. 109-295)

25. Terminology Conclusion 1: “HOMELAND SECURITY” emergency management “HOMELAND SECURITY” is emergency management of adaptive threats (i.e. terrorism). “EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” homeland security “EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” is homeland security of non- adaptive threats (i.e. natural and technological hazards, etc.).

26. Terminology Conclusion 2: PREVENTIONmitigation PREVENTION is mitigation of adaptive threats (i.e. terrorism) MITIGATIONprevention MITIGATION is prevention of non-adaptive threats (i.e. natural and (non-deliberate) technological hazards, etc.)

27. Conclusion 1: Counter-terrorism not Emergency Management Counter-terrorism is not a function or responsibility of Emergency Management Managing the emergency caused by a terrorist act is.

28. More Specifically: Deterring or Disrupting terrorism threats not Emergency Management Deterring or Disrupting terrorism threats is not a function or responsibility of Emergency Management This is a matter of statute as well as Congressional intent.

29. Conclusion 2: The essential difference between Homeland Security and Emergency Management is this: Homeland Security Response is a federal responsibility first ; Emergency Management Response is a federal responsibility last.

30. Implication for Risk Analysis: The Risk Analysis processes for Homeland Security Versus Emergency Management Are Incompatible.

31. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) SupplementOperational Capacity ResponseRecovery Supplement Operational Capacity via Response & Recovery Operations, such as Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National Response Framework utilization. IncreaseOperational Effectiveness Preparedness Increase Operational Effectiveness via traditional " Preparedness Cycle” Activities such as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc. BUILD CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT PROTECT RESPOND Permanently Reduce Risk Mitigation Permanently Reduce Risk from future events via traditional Mitigation measures such as: Land Use and Building Regulation, Structural Retrofit, permanent risk reduction projects, etc. MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVER Temporarily Reduce Risk response Protective Temporarily Reduce Risk in response to a present threat via “ Protective Actions” – Population Protection (i.e. evacuation, sheltering, SAR, etc.) as well as temporary risk reduction measures (shutters, sandbags, levee fortification, etc.) DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” Strategy Development & Process Planning (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations

32. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) SupplementOperational Capacity ResponseRecovery Supplement Operational Capacity via Response & Recovery Operations, such as Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National Response Framework utilization. IncreaseOperational Effectiveness Preparedness Increase Operational Effectiveness via traditional " Preparedness Cycle” Activities such as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc. BUILD HS CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” EXERCISE or ACTUAL INCIDENT DISRUPT RESPOND Prevent Risk Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Prevent Risk from future incidents via traditional Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence measures such as: Border and Transportation Security, Intelligence and Analysis, etc. DETERPREPARE RECOVER Reduce Risk/Contain Consequences Counter-Terrorism:Disruption Reduce Risk/Contain Consequences via Counter-Terrorism: Disruption response to an actual event – such as interdiction, etc. DEPLOY HS CAPABILITY “Operational Response” Strategy Development & Process Planning (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations

33. DEPLOY CAPABILITY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/GUIDANCE: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations PROTECTION (RE)ASSESSMENTS & MEASUREMENTS Strategy & Process Planning BUILD CAPABILITY RESPONSE

34. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PROTECTION PREPAREDNESS “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations Strategy & Process Planning RECOVERY INCREASE CAPACITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY EVENT or Exercise RESPONSE

35. DEPLOY CAPABILITY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PROTECTION PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY Strategy & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations RESPONSE

36. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public Strategy & Process Planning GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations PROTECTION DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY RESPONSE DEPLOY CAPABILITY

37. PRE-Event The Resilience Cycle POST-Event RESPOND To Emergency and Crisis Conditions RECOVER Community Functionality & Self- Sufficiency Build, Sustain or Improve READINESS Build, Sustain or Improve RESISTANCE INCIDENT or EVENT ADAPT To “New Normal” Strategy Development & Process Planning WITHSTAND The Impact Operations BuildPreparedness Build Resilience Through Preparedness AchieveOperations Achieve Resilience Through Operations

38. PRE-Event The Resilience Cycle POST-Event RESPOND To Emergency and Crisis Conditions RECOVER Community Functionality and Self-Sufficiency Build, Sustain or Improve PREPAREDNESS Reduce Risk through MITIGATION INCIDENT or EVENT ADAPT To The “New Normal” Strategy Development & Process Planning PROTECT Against The Impact Operations BuildPreparedness Build Resilience Through Preparedness AchieveOperations Achieve Resilience Through Operations RESPOND PROTECTRECOVER DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD CAPABILITY S E PREPAREMITIGATE

39. The “Resilience Formula” Resilience (Z) equals Time To New Normal Divided by the Event ZTTNNE Z = TTNN ÷ E

40. RESPONSE RECOVERY Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and “Resilience”