1. National Security Strategy Congressional Lecture Series 21 st Oct 2011 Dr. Sebastian Gorka Strategy and Current Wars – Who is the Enemy?

2. Disclaimer The views herein expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of Defense or any other US Government Department or Agency

3. MESSAGE  America has lost its capacity to think strategically  We no longer prioritize based upon national interests  If you want to understand the enemy, read what he writes and listen to what he says  Al Qaeda / AQAM is a product of decades and even centuries of ideological evolution  Do not obsess on violence – AQ is scary but those who use the indirect, non-kinetic approach (e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood) may be even more dangerous  Both the violent terrorists and non-violent jihadists have the same aim: destroying our country and its values

4. SIMPLE, Correct?

5. Has our Strategy Changed? GWOT V Long War /CIST V CVE / OCO V Global Counterinsurgency?

6. Strategy 101  Sun Tzu (6-5 th Century BC) Know the Enemy AND yourself  Carl von Clausewitz (1780 -1837) The first responsibility of the commander is to know what kind of war he is fighting

7. Who are We? What is Our Strategy?

8. Who is the Enemy? AQ’s Evolution pre AQ: MAK – Abdullah Azzam’s Arab Service Bureau Gen 1: commonality – Afghanistan Gen 2: commonality – Bosnia Gen 3: commonality – Chechnya/Georgia AQ 4.0= ?? The shift to ideology – “Global Jihad” – Self-Declaring Groups?

9. Who is the Enemy? II Krauthammer: “”Existential Threat” Powell (etc.): Terrorism Bush: Islamofacism? GEN Petraues: DoD FM 3-24 (COIN) Kilcullen et al: Global Insurgency??

10. What is al Qaeda? Important dates: 1918 -1924 End of Caliphate 1945 -1948 Creation of Israel 1979(1499) Soviet Invasion of AFG, Iranian Revolution AND the Siege of Mecca the Siege of Mecca 1988 Soviet Withdrawal AFG 1990/1 Fall of USSR / Gulf War I

11. The Power of Words The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Islam which is a “Revolutionary Party” Sayyed QUTB Jihad as a Global Brand Abdullah AZZAM We can Destroy the Zionist-Crusaders as we did the Soviet Union. All Muslims must fight. ZAWAHIRI War’s Objective is Allah’s Sovereignty. Terror is our main weapon in Jihad. Brig S.K. Malik

12. TAKE-HOME  AQ is just a small part of a much larger and older movement  That movement has a plan to destroy our system using ALL means – not just violence  This includes political and economic warfare and very sophisticated information operations  This war is potentially more dangerous than even the Cold War  We need a REAL Strategy

13. We Knew More 7 Years Ago  Our enemy “is sophisticated, patient, disciplined and lethal.”  “the institutions charged with protecting our national security did not understand how grave this threat could be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.”  “In short, the United States has to help defeat an ideology, not just a group of people. The 9/11 Commission Report

14. Two Enemies, One Goal Non-Violent Jihadists: e.g. Muslim Brotherhood Violent Jihadists: AQAM Sharia Law / Caliphate

15. From: S. Gorka and D. Kilcullen: An Actor-Centric Theory of War – JFQ 60, 2011 The New Threat Environment: Not so New!

16. Dr. Sebastian L. v. Gorka Tel. 703 300 5014 gorka@defenddemocracy.org seb.gorka@gmail.com QUESTIONS?