1. Naman Sharma and Dan Lane School of Management, University of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5 Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 1OMRN CONFERENCE

2. What concerns? Need for reconciliation of the approaches for culmination to effective management strategy. Decline criterion approach of COSEWIC. Reference point approach of DFO. An integrated system approach based on Multicriteria decision analysis for complete perspectives of Fisheries System. Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 2OMRN CONFERENCE

3. Significant population declines The lack of rebuilding of the stocks results in drastic management measures - short- term and long-term moratoria on commercial fishing. Government recognizes the need to maximize the effectiveness of stock rebuilding efforts. Government also recognizes the need for feedback on effectiveness of measures taken. Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 3OMRN CONFERENCE

4. 2J3KL Northern cod 3Ps SouthNfld cod 4V, 4WX Maritimes cod 3Pn4RS NorthGulf cod 4T SouthGulf cod

5. COSEWIC Threshold Approach DECLINE CRITERIAENDANGEREDTHREATENED TOTAL POPULATION 70% WITH THREATS CEASED; i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS SPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE 50% WITH THREATS CEASED; 50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONS UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS) 50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONS UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS) GEOGRAPHIC RANGE i) EXTENT OF OCCURRENCE< 5,000 SQ KM < 20,000 SQ KM ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE< 500 SQ KM< 2,000 SQ KM iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 ≤ 10 iv) EXTREME FLUCTUATIONS> 1 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE SMALL TOTAL POPULATION i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 2500 MATURE INDIVIDUALS< 10,000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS ii) RATE OF DECLINE 20%10% (IN 5 YEARS OR 2 GENERATIONS(IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONS UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS) VERY SMALL POPULATION i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS< 250 MATURE INDIVIDUALS< 1000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE< 20 SQ KM iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS i) PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION20% IN 20 YEARS OR 5 GENERATIONS10% IN 100 YEARS SOURCE : http://www.cosewic.gc.ca/ Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 5OMRN CONFERENCE

6. COSEWIC SPECIES AGGREGATION STATUS ASSESSMENT CRITERIA COD STOCK AGGREGATION COSEWIC OBSERVATIONS (2003) COSEWIC INTERPRETATION TOTAL POPULATION i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS2GHJ, 3KLNO97% (1968-2001)ENDANGERED SPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE3Ps, 3Pn4RS81% (1974-2001)THREATENED 4T, 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X, 5ej,m14% (1974-1997)SPECIAL CONCERN Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 6OMRN CONFERENCE

7. DFO Reference Point Approach Based on Precautionary framework defined by Limit Reference Points Include the concept of Stock Status Zones to determine Management measures. Stock Status Zones are Critical Zone (Conservation Objective) Cautious Zone (Conservation and Socio-Economic) Healthy Zone (Conservation objective attained and Socio- Economic objective optimized) Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 7OMRN CONFERENCE

8. DFO vs. COSEWIC : Major Concerns Decline criterion and marine fish stocks Special concern category Stock aggregation DFO Moratorium declaration COSEWIC designations and SARA listing Socio-economic consideration Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 8OMRN CONFERENCE

9. Fisheries System Analysis Current approaches do not deal with all aspects of the fishery system; Federal Regulatory Policy (1999) requires analysis of all costs and benefits; Fisheries Act of Canada (2006) requires sustainable Fishery for economic benefits of all Canadians. Need for a system evaluation; consideration of multiple objectives and multiple components. Application of principles of TQM to setting targets for multiple components. OBJECTIVE: Develop a comprehensive approach to Fisheries as a system based on structured MCDM approach for the exploration and evaluation of different policy alternatives under different scenarios to understand fish stock status. Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 9OMRN CONFERENCE

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12. 4TVn Strategic Analyses 1. Historical review, 2001-2005 2. 2007 Policy Alternatives Tuesday, April 28, 2015 SLIDE # 12 OMRN CONFERENCE

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16. Production and Operations Management Fisheries Management Stock status indicators Quality control charts Prespecified management actions Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 16OMRN CONFERENCE

17. Tuesday, April 28, 2015SLIDE # 17OMRN CONFERENCE

18. CONCLUSIONS Fisheries as a comprehensive system Overall policy accountability and performance measurement by performance Need for a strategic perspective based on multicriteria (AHP) Need for an operational management approach based on process control (TQM) Tuesday, April 28, 2015 SLIDE # 18 OMRN CONFERENCE