1. Leveraging Institutional Data & Department of Education Resources

2. Course Obstacles and Running the Race

3. Course Obstacles and Running the RaceCourse Obstacles and Running the Race Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment

4. Course Obstacles and Running the RaceCourse Obstacles and Running the Race Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment Resources from Department of Education Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment Resources from Department of Education

5. Course Obstacles and Running the RaceCourse Obstacles and Running the Race Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment Resources from Department of Education Leveraging your existing resources and data to create a GPS for your students’ success Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment Resources from Department of Education Leveraging your existing resources and data to create a GPS for your students’ success

6. Running intoRunning into

7. the Chronicle of Higher Educationthe Chronicle of Higher Education articles over the last 9 years…articles over the last 9 years…

8. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

9. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

10. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken

11. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field

12. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters 09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters 09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton

13. Chronicle Articles over the last 9 yearsChronicle Articles over the last 9 years Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters 09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton Hurricanes Are Blamed for Loan-Default Rate Jump 09/26/2008, by PAUL BASKEN Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent 09/17/2008, by Paul Basken Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb 05/03/2010, by Kelly Field Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters 09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton Hurricanes Are Blamed for Loan-Default Rate Jump 09/26/2008, by PAUL BASKEN

14. Half-time Talk— It Ain’t 2003

15. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Borrower Limits have greatly increased

16. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool

17. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased

18. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII

19. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive

20. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive 2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever” Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive 2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever”

21. Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003 Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive 2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever” Average Debt $27,300 (Mark Kantrowitz) Borrower Limits have greatly increased Home equity no longer a tool College costs have increased Worst job market for graduates since WWII Student loans are getting more expensive 2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever” Average Debt $27,300 (Mark Kantrowitz)

22. Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003? (The 2003 World Series - The Florida Marlins defeated the New York Yankees in six games, 4–2)

23. Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003? Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)

24. Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003? Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts

25. Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003? Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone) Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone)

26. Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003? Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone) Loan comparison tools-phone booth or cell? Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD) Financial literacy efforts Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone) Loan comparison tools-phone booth or cell?

28. Small/Under-Resourced School Division

29. 31 Small/Under-Resourced School Division  Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders  Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.

30. Small/Under-Resourced School Division  Historically Black Colleges & Universities – 99  Hispanic Serving Institutions – 168  Tribal Colleges and Universities – 32 32

31. 33 Small/Under-Resourced School Division

32. SURSD Services and Training Internal Institutional Title IV Assessments Specialized Staff Training Technical Assistance On-campus Site Visits Management Consultations 34

33. 35 Small/Under-Resourced School Division  Expand opportunities for these institutions to participate in Federal Programs.  Proactively identify the unique service needs of HBCU’s, HSI’s, and TCC’s as it relates to the management of the Title IV programs.  Services have expanded to include a broader population of all under-resourced schools.

34. 36 Small/Under-Resourced School Division  Provide the assistance required to ensure continued participation in the Title IV programs which the institution has chosen to participate.

35. 37 Small/Under-Resourced School Division  Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders  Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.

36. 38 Contact Information Joel V. Harrell, Director Small Under-Resourced Schools Division Federal Student Aid (404)974-9307 Joel.harrell@ed.gov

37. 39 Managing Retention A good deal of institutional data is “stove piped.” However, if that data is joined, it can be effectively used to identify students and student borrowers who may be at risk. This, in turn, can be used to create strategic intervention points to promote retention.

38. 40 Managing Default Rates Students are terribly misinformed about their future debt obligations and income potential. Institutional default rate management is most effective when schools still have control over their students post-graduate plans. The future of delinquency management is going to be pre-emptive.

39. 41 Different sides of the same die Enrolling, persisting and successfully financing a postsecondary education program are NOT mutually exclusive endeavors.

40. Institutional analytics

41. Institutional analytics (cont’d) Historical Drivers of the Relative CDR Position Rank Factor (explanatory power)Notes 1 Proprietary Institution (8.5%) One of the largest general factors 2 Percent of Students receiving Pell Grants (5.4%) ~60% received Pell Grants in 2008-09 3 Associate’s and Certificates Focus (3.7%) Certificates are particularly associated with high CDRs 4 High Proportion of Non- Traditional Students (3.7%) Large proportion of students entering school after 30 5 National Unemployment Rate (1.1%) Aggregate levels correlated with national unemployment rates Total21% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers Drivers of CDR Projections Rank Factor (explanatory power)Notes 1 Local Unemployment Rate (48.9%) Strong response to the current economic downturn 2 Increase in Non- Traditional Students (5.5%) Older students Students returning to school after career 3 Increase in Female Enrollment (-3.6%) Steady growth mitigates CDR increases 4 Increase in Certificates Awarded (3.1%) Associated with higher default rates 5 Lower Enrollment of Traditionally Underrepresented Groups (1.0%) Growth mitigates CDR increases Total55% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers

42. Institutional analytics (cont’d) Assumptions : Percentile Average Mode 10 th 20 th 30 th 40 th Median60 th 70 th 80 th 90 th 2-Year CDR 1.6%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.5%2.6%2.8%3.0%2.3% 3-year CDR 3.4%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.9%4.2%4.5%5.1%6.3%4.4%3.5% FactorBaselineMonte Carlo Range Female Enrollment–0.1% annual increase-2.1% to +1.9% annual increase Minority Enrollment+4% annual increase0% to +8% annual increase Aged 25+ Enrollment–6% annual increase–10% to –2% annual increase Delayed Enrollment–4% annual increase–8% to 0% annual increase UnemploymentNABE projectionVaried across Blue Chip projections Results:

43. ESM Chaperone 1001 19 th Street North Suite 1200 Arlington, Virginia 22209 info@esm-sls.com 877.453.9933

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