1. Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China CHINAGRO Training Course (II): September 23-24, 2003, Beijing Günther Fischer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adapatation of China‘s Agriculture to Globalization C HIN A GRO

2. OVERVIEW Background Methodology - overview Livestock types Feed requirements Feed sources Feed balances Conclusions CHINAGRO

3. LIVESTOCK TYPES Large animals Cattle & Yaks Milk cows Buffalos Horses Donkeys & Mules Camels Sheep & Goats Pigs Poultry (meat) Poultry (eggs) CHINAGRO

4. Livestock Numbers and Regional Distribution 1997

5. LIVESTOCK TYPES Conversion in two steps: Convert to Systems Livestock Unit (SLSU = breeding female) 2.Convert SLSU to Reference Livestock Unit (RSLU = animal requiring 5600 Mcal/year) CHINAGRO Vary by: Herd structure Nutritional requirements Input/Output relations  Express in common unit

6. LIVESTOCK HERD STRUCTURE CHINAGRO Source: Zheng et al., 1994

7. Livestock Heads converted to Reference Units (RLSU) CHINAGRO

8. FEEDING SYSTEMS Grazing systems  Ruminants (excl. buffalo) Confined systems  Traditional Household  Specialized Household  Large-scale CHINAGRO Vary with:  Feed resources  Scale level  Input intensity  Productivity

9. Livestock By Feeding System (RSLU in 1997) CHINAGRO RUMINANTSPIGS and POULTRY

10. FEED SOURCES Grass and forage Natural grassland Improved grassland Sown pasture Crop residues Crop by-products Bran and husks Cake and meals Pulp, stillage, molasses Household wastes Primary feed commodities CHINAGRO

11. FEED SOURCES (1) Grass and Forage CHINAGRO F g = F ng + F ig + F sg where F ng = A ng Y ng D ng C nu E ng F ig = … F g, F ng, F ig, F sg feed energy supply (Mcal) Y ng, Y ig, Y sg yield (kg/ha) A ng, A ig, A sg utilizable grassland (ha) D ng, D ig, D sg dry matter content (share) C nu, C iu, C su utilization coefficient (share) E ng, E ig, E sg digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)

12. CHINAGRO

13. Crop Production Systems Zones CHINAGRO Pasture Suitability

14. Utilization rate: (share) C nu 0.40 – 0.60 C iu 0.70 C su 0.75 Dry matter content: (percent) D ng 90.5 – 92.6 D sg 89.5 – 92.8 CHINAGRO Digestible energy: (Mcal/kg DM) E ng 1.59 – 2.53 E sg 2.26 – 2.51

15. FEED SOURCES (2) Crop residues, by-products, wastes CHINAGRO F r = Q C r C ru E r F b = (Q C p ) C b C bu E b F w = Q C w C wu E w Fr, Fb, Fwfeed energy supply (Mcal) Qproduction (kg DM) C r, C b, C w feed factor (kg/kg primary prod.) C ru, C bu, C wu utilization coefficients (share) C p processing coefficient (share) E r, E b, E w digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)

16. CHINAGRO By-product factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition Residue factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994

17. Potential Feed Supply from Pasture, Residues, By-products and Wastes (mill.Mcal) CHINAGRO

18. Cross-Entropy Feed-Mix Estimation subject to: where: i … livestock type j … feed type m … feeding mode E im … total feed requirement F j … total feed supply f ijm … feed use  ijm … feed use ‘prior’

19. CHINAGRO G…grazing system T…traditional household feeding S…specialized household feeding L…large-scale livestock farm Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems under Different Feeding Modes (minimum, reference, maximum percentage of feed sources in total DE) Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994

20. CHINAGRO Regional Feed Balance in 1997 (mill.Mcal)

21. CHINAGRO Average Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems (all feeding modes; percentage of feed sources in total DE)

22. Feed Composition by Feeding Mode (percentage of feed sources in total DE) CONFINED - SPECIALIZED CONFINED – LARGE FARM GRAZING CONFINED – TRADITIONAL

23. Responses of temperature to increasing CO 2 concentrations for various GCMs (China). Atmospheric CO 2 abundance (ppm) Change in average temperature (deg C) CHINAGRO

24. Change in average temperature (deg C) Precipitation change (%) Correlations between temperature increase and precipitation change for various GCMs (China). CHINAGRO

25. SUNSHINE PRECIPITATION MIN. TEMP. CLIMATE GRIDS MAX. TEMP. LUT DESCRIPTION 1 CROP CATALOG 2 CLIMATE DATABASE (Stations) 3 CLIMATE SCENARIOS 4  P,  T,  S,  CO2,  RL 5 6 ADMINISTR. LAND COVER SOIL TERRAIN ELEVATION GIS 7 THERMAL & MOISTURE PROFILE 10 CLIMATIC REQUIREMENTS 11 CLIMATE MATCHING RULES 12 BIOMASS AND YIELD 13 AGRO- CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS 14 AEZ GRID-CELL DATABASE Steps in AEZ Methodology – Part 1 A CHINAGRO

26. Steps in AEZ Methodology – Part 2 APPLICATION REPORT WRITER CROP CATALOG 2 ADMINISTR. LAND COVER SOIL TERRAIN ELEVATION GIS 7 SOIL COMPOSITION ATTRIBUTES 8 LAND RESOURCES INVENTORY 9 THERMAL & MOISTURE PROFILE 10 SOIL-TERRAIN REQUIREMENTS 15 EDAPHIC MATCHING RULES 16 LUT SUITABILITY 17 MULTI- CROPPING 18 LAND PRODUCT- IVITY 19 ‘OPTIMAL’ LAND USE 21 22 SUNSHINE PRECIPITATION MIN. TEMP. CLIMATE GRIDS MAX. TEMP. 6 AEZ GRID-CELL DATABASE A AEZ GRID-CELL DATABASE 20 C AEZ GRID-CELL DATABASE B CHINAGRO

27. Reference Climate Length of Growing Period

28. HadCM3 A2 2020s Length of Growing Period

29. HadCM3 A2 2050s Length of Growing Period

30. HadCM3 A2 2080s Length of Growing Period

31. Transition Matrix tabulating change in extents of LGP zones HadCM3 Scenario A2 2080s compared to Reference Climate Squ. km Percent CHINAGRO

32. Suitability for rain- fed pasture Reference climate HadCM3-A1FI, 2080

33. Impact of Climate Change on Pasture Suitability in China (% change) for HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM, CGM2 and NCAR scenarios, 2080s Change in SI in grass, shrub & woodland, and sparsely vegetated land classes.

34. SUMMARY Methodology for full livestock feed accounting at provincial / regional / national level (all major feed sources, all animal types); Full accounting provides valuable consistency check; Method is flexible to incorporate technical information from livestock experts as well as survey / census data; Provides sound basis for estimating current and future feed availability and use; Explicitly accounts for livestock structure changes and shifts in livestock management; Provides a basis for assessing spatial livestock issues (e.g., fixed vs mobile feed resources). CHINAGRO

35. THANK YOU! http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC

36. Pasture Suitability in China Suitable areas (1000 ha) in grass, shrub & woodland, and sparsely vegetated land classes. Reference climate, 1961-90.

37. CHINAGRO Crop Production Systems Zones

39. Regionalization in LUC-AGE

40. NORTH (ER 1) NORTHEAST (ER 2) PLATEAU (ER 7) NORTHWEST (ER 8)