1. Tackling climate change: Assembly Government’s strategic approach Andy Fraser Head of Climate Change Policy Welsh Assembly Government

2. Hadley Centre How will climate change affect Wales? 2009 UK Climate Projections (produced by UK Climate Impacts Programme) help us understand the changes we might expect:2009 UK Climate Projections (produced by UK Climate Impacts Programme) help us understand the changes we might expect: Rising temperatures across Wales over the coming decades (over 2°C by 2040s)Rising temperatures across Wales over the coming decades (over 2°C by 2040s) Increasing winter rainfall (+11% by 2040s))Increasing winter rainfall (+11% by 2040s)) –Milder but wetter winters Reduced summer rainfall (-12% by 2040s)Reduced summer rainfall (-12% by 2040s) –Warmer and drier summers Increasing frequency of extreme weatherIncreasing frequency of extreme weather Sea-level rise (up to 80cm by 2080)Sea-level rise (up to 80cm by 2080)

3. Impacts of climate change in Wales Increased flood risk to homes and businessesIncreased flood risk to homes and businesses Agriculture and food productionAgriculture and food production Potential risks for damage and disruption to national infrastructurePotential risks for damage and disruption to national infrastructure –Energy supply –Water supply –Telecoms –Transport networks

4. Impacts of climate change for Wales Impact on wildlife and environment, particularly sensitive habitatsImpact on wildlife and environment, particularly sensitive habitats –Loss of native species –Coastal and lowland areas –Freshwater ecosystems Changing demands and social pressures:Changing demands and social pressures: –Healthcare –Social care –Emergency services Economic challenges and opportunitiesEconomic challenges and opportunities

5. Supporting international action Assembly Government fully engaged in supporting UK Government in taking strong domestic actionAssembly Government fully engaged in supporting UK Government in taking strong domestic action –Contribution to UN (most recently at Copenhagen) and European Environment Council meetings Wales is Co- Chair for Europe of the Network of Regional Governments for Sustainable Development (nrg4SD) Working closely with other regional government partners, UN and European bodies, and organisations such as The Climate Group to increase international recognition for regional government action: –recognition of the role of sub national regions and regional governments as part of a new international agreement

6. UK targets Through Kyoto Protocol, UK committed to cutting GHG emissions by 12.5% over the period 2008 – 2012 against 1990 baseline Through the Climate Change Act, it is committed to: –Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline –Reducing GHG emissions by at least 34% by 2020 against a 1990 baseline –Establish carbon budgets, on aggregate GHG emissions over five year periods

7. Welsh Assembly Government commitments to tackle climate change Firm commitment in ‘One Wales’: Aim to achieve carbon reduction- equivalent emissions reductions of 3% per year by 2011 in areas of devolved competence Set specific sectoral targets in relation to residential, public and transport Established Climate Change Commission for Wales Clear UK, EU and international targets

8. Other commitments:Other commitments: –Agreement to make 40% cut in emissions by 2020 against 1990 baseline –Assembly Government was the first regional government to commit to the 10:10 campaign –Setting targets for carbon neutrality in public builldings –Provide energy efficiency grants, including a non- means tested element within the context of a National Energy Efficiency and Saving Plan Developing scenarios with Climate Change Commission to explore potential to make deeper cuts of 6 and 9% per yearDeveloping scenarios with Climate Change Commission to explore potential to make deeper cuts of 6 and 9% per year Welsh Assembly Government commitments to tackle climate change

9. Wales’ 3% emissions reduction target High Level Policy Statement consultation established our overall approach In summary: –Includes all greenhouse gases –Covers all ‘direct’ emissions (except heavy industry and power generation) and electricity consumption emissions –Baseline will be an average of emissions in 2006–2010

10. Delivering on our commitments: Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – Programme of Action Programme of Action set out proposals within the context of UK and EU policyProgramme of Action set out proposals within the context of UK and EU policy 23 proposals covering emission reduction in the following sectors:23 proposals covering emission reduction in the following sectors: – Transport – Business – Residential – Waste – Public – Agriculture and land management Also Included proposals on:Also Included proposals on: –supporting behaviour change –climate change adaptation

11. Wales’ Climate Change Strategy Underpinning principles for our Strategy:Underpinning principles for our Strategy: –Helping people to make climate-friendly choices –Leading by example and building climate change into Assembly Government decisions –Driving energy efficiency –Identifying where Wales’ natural resources, land management pattern and economy can contribute to delivery –Ensuring that Wales gains maximum benefit from climate change related opportunities –Supporting socially just adaptation measures

12. Specific actions include: Funding to support community energy generation and microgeneration in homesFunding to support community energy generation and microgeneration in homes New climate change development officers for Welsh communitiesNew climate change development officers for Welsh communities New pilot to lower the carbon footprint of citiesNew pilot to lower the carbon footprint of cities Rolling out of Sustainable Travel TownsRolling out of Sustainable Travel Towns Support for green energy productionSupport for green energy production Advice and support for businesses to go greenAdvice and support for businesses to go green Buildings skills and research and development for a low carbon economyBuildings skills and research and development for a low carbon economy Creation of a climate change charter for organisationsCreation of a climate change charter for organisations The proposals outlined represent plans to commit £300 million by all Ministers and across all departments within the Welsh Assembly Government to contribute to tackling climate changeThe proposals outlined represent plans to commit £300 million by all Ministers and across all departments within the Welsh Assembly Government to contribute to tackling climate change Wales’ Climate Change Strategy

13. 3% p.a. pathway (Committee on Climate Change advice & Welsh Climate Change Strategy) Absolute % reductions Residential78% Waste38% Transport36% Agriculture44% Public80% Business34% Emissions reductions: Sector by sector

14. 6% p.a. pathway (CCC advice & Welsh CC Strategy plus greater technology uptake) Absolute % reductions Residential89% Waste58% Transport62% Agriculture64% Public100% Business44%

15. 9% p.a. pathway (CCC & Welsh CC Strategy, much greater technology uptake and some demand reduction ) Absolute % reductions Residential89% Waste80% Transport74% Agriculture74% Public100% Business69%

16. Wales final Climate Change Strategy to be published and implemented in March 2010:Wales final Climate Change Strategy to be published and implemented in March 2010: –Enable implementation of relevant new measures for 2011 –Confirm targets –Confirm package of actions –More information on partners’ contributions and commitments –Information on implementation, including reporting on progress and future review …in 2010

17. Andy Fraser Head of Climate Change Policy Andy.Fraser@wales.gsi.gov.uk Further information www.wales.gov.uk/climatechange