1. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Cape Grim: A 28-year record of the changing atmosphere Graeme Pearman CSIRO

2. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Cape Grim

3. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

4. Air samples from around the world brought for analysis in Melbourne

5. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Air archive tanks filled at Cape Grim and stored in Melbourne

6. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

7. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

9. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra CONTENTS 1. Marine emissions-climate connection 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange 3. Regional surface exchange 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry 5. Global biogeochemical budgets

10. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection DMSPollutionSolar radiation Cloud Condensation Nuclei Size of cloud droplets Cloud optical depth Precipitation Cloud depth

11. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection

12. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection

13. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange Composite from cruises, 1991-1999

14. 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange Atmospheric oxygen variation at Cape Grim

15. Net uptake: Oceanic 2.3 GtC yr -1 Terrestrial 0.2 GtC yr -1 Partitioning fossil CO 2 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4   C    (per mil PDB) Cape Grim  13 C in CO 2 in-situ CO 2 extraction air archive -200 -100 0 100 200  0 2 /N/N 2 ) (per meg) 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 Cape Grim O 2 /N/N 2 air archive 13 C-predicted curve SIO flasks URI CSIRO South Pole firn 330 340 350 360 CO 2 (ppmv) Cape Grim in-situ CO 2

16. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET (1) (2) (3) 78-97 91 Fossil fuel release +5.6 +5.6 +6.0 Ocean uptake -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 Net biospheric uptake -0.2 -0.7 -2.0 Atmospheric accumulation -3.1 -3.1 -2.3 (1)Langenfelds et al. (1999) (2)Rayner et al. (1999) (3) Keeling et al. (1996)

17. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Domain of the transport model (DARLAM) Cape Grim

18. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra The modelled plume just miss Cape Grim but observations did not! (from B. Dunse) Cape Grim

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20. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

21. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra NPP estimates for the Australian continent (Gt C/yr) Wang et al. 0.5 -0.8* (1.1-1.3) Barrett0.76-1.21 Kirschbaum1.4 Gifford (1992)2.7 Graetz2.8 * estimates after inversion

22. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Down to local scale a study in progress 1.7 Mha burned 42.5 Mt CO 2 -C emitted

23. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

24. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ) - Cape Grim All data Baseline data

25. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

26. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) – Cape Grim

27. 3. Regional surface exchange Chloroform - Cape Grim Melbourne Latrobe Valley Cape Grim

28. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Chloroform (CHCl 3 ) and HFC-134a (CH 2 FCF 3 ) - Cape Grim 3. Regional surface exchange

29. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange HFC-134a (CH 2 FCF 3 ) - Cape Grim

30. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange H-1211 (CBrClF 2 )- Cape Grim

31. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

32. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Bell Bay

33. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Portland and Point Henry

34. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Carbon tetrafluoride (CF 4 ) Observations with TAPM Simulation

35. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 )- Cape Grim 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 19301940195019601970198019902000 SF 6 (ppt) Antarctic firn Cape Grim Unpublished data of Etheridge, Levin, Harnisch, Fraser, MacFarling et al.

36. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Carbon tetrafluoride (CF 4 )- Cape Grim 20 40 60 19301940195019601970198019902000 CF 4 (ppt) Antarctic firn SH Atmosphere Unpublished data of Etheridge, Levin, Harnisch, Fraser, MacFarling et al. Cape Grim from: Maiss et al.

37. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry: Photochemistry

38. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry: Heterogeneous Chemistry

39. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Reactive atmospheric chemistry Methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ) - Cape Grim All data Baseline data

40. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra All data Baseline data 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC-11 (CCl 3 F) - Cape Grim

41. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC11(CCl 3 F) and IPCC/SRES A1 scenario

42. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra All data Baseline data 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC-12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) - Cape Grim

43. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) and IPCC/SRES A1 Scenario

44. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) – Cape Grim

45. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Rate of change of carbon dioxide

46. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

47. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Mauna Loa (21 o N) South Pole (90 o S) Cape Grim (41 o S) 356 360 364 368 372 C O 2 ( p p m ) 19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 Year 352 CO 2 TRENDS From Francey et al.

48. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Atmospheric transport of CO 2

49. 3D space-time inversion (Rayner et al., Tellus, 1999) Flux GtC yr -1

50. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Growth of atmospheric methane has currently ceased

51. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra

52. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra EMERGING ISSUES Role of existing time-series stations (aircraft/ships, campaigns, # of observatories) New capabilities in atmospheric transport modelling New measurements and calibration Solutions demanding integration (disciplinary-multidisciplinary-integrative- consilience)

53. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra CONCLUSIONS Cape Grim has contributed to our knowledge of a wide variety of processes that determine the composition of the atmosphere The mixture of fixed site, airborne and other sampling with ice core and archived air has been very powerful The global atmosphere is responding chemically to human activities This is a part of global change

54. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Greg Ayers John Gras Reinout Boers Paul Krummel Nada Derek Ray Langenfelds Bronwyn DunsePeter Rayner David Etheridge Paul Steele Ian Enting Bronte Tilbrook Roger Francey Ying Ping Wang Paul Fraser –The AGAGE team –Staff at the Cape Grim Observatory

55. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Portland and Point Henry

56. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Bell Bay

57. March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Modelled and observed concentrations at two locations