1. When Mbeki goes! 15 March 2007 Dr Jan du Plessis INTERSEARCH (Strategic Management Intelligence) insearch@mweb.co.za

2. The traditional political approach Check mass support – do a head counting! Check mass support – do a head counting! Identify rivals – personalities, regions Identify rivals – personalities, regions Determine alliances Determine alliances In terms of the year 2010: – this is no longer enough!

3. A New Approach Needed The year 2007 is fundamentally different from 1994 – the first democratic elections The year 2007 is fundamentally different from 1994 – the first democratic elections The year 2010 – and beyond – will differ even more from 2007 The year 2010 – and beyond – will differ even more from 2007 By 2007: the same government – different society By 2007: the same government – different society

4. An emerging humanitarian crisis UNICEF Report: Southern Africa – countries in crisis The Southern Africa region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis unlike any other. (November 30, 2006) (November 30, 2006)

5. A growing contrast Aids has brought human development in much of Africa south of the Sahara to a standstill… Human development in sub- Saharan Africa stagnates… while progress in other parts of the world accelerates. (UNDP Report. January 2007)

6. Implosion of expertise and skills The impact of HIV/AIDS across the region cannot be underestimated. The long-term impact is an uneducated, unskilled and poverty-stricken generation that will continue to emerge and this will impact negatively on the development of southern Africa. Reuters Foundation. Alerting humanitarians to emergencies. 1 December 2005.

7. Implications for markets UNICEF Report on Southern Africa – countries in crisis: An HIV-affected household can see its income drop by up to 80 per cent and its food consumption by 15 to 30 per cent. One in four people in the productive age group (15 – 49) in this region is living with HIV. (November 2006)

8. Life expectancy In 1990 the life expectancy for South Africans was 61.8 years. This declined to 49 years for women and 47 years for men in 2005, with an expected average of 37 years in 2010. South Africa’s 15-year olds have a 56 % chance of dying before turning 60.

9. The destruction of society Estimated infection rate: 5,4 million people Estimated infection rate: 5,4 million people Deaths per day: 1 000 Deaths per day: 1 000 New infections per day: 1 500 New infections per day: 1 500 The SA Medical Research Council “suggested that the high rates of AIDS mortality would persist in South Africa for at least the next decade”. (December 2006) The SA Medical Research Council “suggested that the high rates of AIDS mortality would persist in South Africa for at least the next decade”. (December 2006)

10. One in three infected with HIV in Gauteng The impact on the demographic structure is going to be the greatest. The population is going to be smaller and the structure is going to be different. Even if the epidemic peaked today and then started to decrease, we will still be feeling its impact in 20 years time. The impact would be felt by the government, communities, municipalities, in the workplace and in schools. Prof Alan Whiteside. Gauteng Aids Conference. October 2005

11. Profile of Government Currently about 1,1 million public servants are employed by Government. Currently about 1,1 million public servants are employed by Government. The current structure of the public service comprises of 2% managers, while 50% of the employees are labelled as “lower-skilled”, 40% as “semi-skilled” and 8% is considered “highly skilled”. (Min Fraser-Moleketi: Parliamentary Briefing. 15 Feb. 2005) The current structure of the public service comprises of 2% managers, while 50% of the employees are labelled as “lower-skilled”, 40% as “semi-skilled” and 8% is considered “highly skilled”. (Min Fraser-Moleketi: Parliamentary Briefing. 15 Feb. 2005) Some 990 000 public servants are either “lower-skilled” or “semi-skilled”. Some 990 000 public servants are either “lower-skilled” or “semi-skilled”. More than 44 000 vacancies in public service More than 44 000 vacancies in public service

12. A Summary of Challenges by 2007 A severe decay of governing capabilities – no dramatic improvement expected A severe decay of governing capabilities – no dramatic improvement expected A drastic collapse of human capabilities – accelerated decline is possible A drastic collapse of human capabilities – accelerated decline is possible A new role for the private sector: A new role for the private sector: expertise (competitive advantage) expanded responsibility (security, education) Accept emergence of new political environment Accept emergence of new political environment