1. Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for natural and agricultural systems Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au September 2012 Hanoi 1a

2. Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods 2 ICEM, 2012

3. Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum 3 ICEM, 2012

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5. Climate change shifts Regular climate 1.Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability 2.Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation 3.Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patterns Extreme events 4.Extreme event shifts  Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands  Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall 5

6. Geographic shift 6 ICEM, 2012

7. Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas High exposure:  significant climate change relative to base conditions  exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions High sensitivity:  limited temperature and moisture tolerance range  degraded and/or under acute pressure  severely restricted geographic range  rare or threatened Low adaptive capacity  Poor connectivity  Low diversity and tolerances  Homogenous systems 7

8. 8 Climate change hot spot - rainfall

9. 9 Climate change hot spot - Temperature

10. Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots

11. Lowland rice 11

12. upland rice 12

13. rubber 13

14. Coffee (coffea canephora) 14

15. cassava 15

16. Maize 16

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19. Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances

20. Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances

21. Trends in commercial crops with climate change Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation. Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica). Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas. Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required. Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation 21

22. Rice cultivation and extreme flooding Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta. Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones. Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice. 22 Rice

23. Rice cultivation and sea level rise A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta. Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season. The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible. Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects. 23 Rice

24. Thank you Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au www.icem.com.au 24