1. Institut für Ländliche Räume Farm Level Modelling Workshop 17.05.-19.05.2012, Dublin, Ireland Implications of Changing Limits for Organic Fertilization Application - the German Case Study Norbert Röder, Alexander Gocht, Anja Techen and Bernhard Osterburg

2. Röder et al., 5-2012  Motivation  Research question  Material & Methods  Results  Conclusion Outline

3. Röder et al., 5-2012 N-Gaseous Emissions  Greenhouse gas (N 2 O)  Ground level ozone (summer smog) N- Eutrophication  Impairment of drinking water (NO 3 )  Negative impact production value (forestry)  Marine ecosystems  algae bloom  negative for fishery & tourism  Reduction of biodiversity P-Eutrophication  Lakes & rivers  negative for tourism & recreation Why limit N / P surpluses? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

4. Röder et al., 5-2012 The trends (N-pollution of German rivers) Settlements Point Sources Urban areas Drainage Surface run off Ground water Erosion Athmosph. deposition Agriculture Source: Umweltbundesamt 2009 (MONERIS, Fuchs et al. 2009 in UBA Texte 45/2010) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

5. Röder et al., 5-2012 The trends (National German farm gate balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

6. Röder et al., 5-2012 The trends (Fertilizer Sales) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

7. Röder et al., 5-2012 Agriculture is the main emitter (emissions linked to nutrient surplus) Regulation getting tighter Plans to refine German legislation to -reduce N and P surpluses -fully incorporate manure from Biogas production Why doing this study? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

8. Röder et al., 5-2012 Mineral fertilizer is relatively cheap N is volatile (no storage in the soil) Fertilization when plant’s demand is uncertain (weather risk) Quality standards demand excess fertilization (e.g. baking wheat) Economies of scale, scope and clusters  Spatial segregation of animal breeding and plant production (landless livestock husbandry)  Organic fertilizer (mainly water) is expensive to transport Why do farmers use fertilizer excessively? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

9. Röder et al., 5-2012 EU  Nitrates Directive (1991/676/EEC) (NO 3 )  Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) (water quality)  National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001/81/EC) (NO x, NH 3 ) International  Kyoto Protocol (N 2 O) The International Regulatory framework Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

10. Röder et al., 5-2012 Düngeverordnung (DüV) (”Fertilization Directive”) Key elements (measured on plot level)  Max.170 kg per ha organic N application (yearly)  Max.60 kg per ha N balance surplus (3 year average)  Max. 20 kg per ha P balance surplus (6 year average) N-accounting (always after deducting ”unavoidable” losses) Other elements  Closed period for manure application  Min. storage capacity for manure  Standards on application technique Main difference to other EU-member states  Balance surpluses instead of max. total application limits Main national policy instrument (for farmers) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

11. Röder et al., 5-2012 What is the effect of I.Tighter limits, regarding a.Organic N-application b.N-balance c.P-Balance II.Or, accounting residuals from the biogas production On I.The regulated amounts of a.Manure b.N in manure c.P in manure II.Transport distances and quantities of manure? Our research questions Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

12. Röder et al., 5-2012 Farm level micro data (various years) (FDZ) Synthetic data set on German agriculture at municipality level (various years) (Gocht & Röder, submitted) Distribution of Biogas production (2010) (BNetzA, 2011) Regional yields (various years) (DeStatis) Emission coefficients (various years) (DüV) Data Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

13. Röder et al., 5-2012  Focus on organic fertilizer as –Lack of data for distribution of mineral fertilizer  Modelling ”partial” nutrient balances at –farm level –municipality level  Simple LP-transport model for manure (distributing local nutrient surpluses) min. total transport distance s.t. compliance with the application and balance restrictions Methods Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

14. Röder et al., 5-2012 Without losses Unavoidable losses (a gigantic loop hole) Organic N-excretion kg / ha UAA Legal Threshold Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Deducting application losses

15. Röder et al., 5-2012 Importance of the legal limits N Application N Balance P Balance X13% X3% X96% XX13% XX100% XX96% Share of the totally regulated quantity (N in manure) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

16. Röder et al., 5-2012 Sensitivity to tighter limits (organic N application) Current legal limit Discussed shift Additionally controlled share of manure Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

17. Röder et al., 5-2012 Sensitivity to tighter limits (P-Balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

18. Röder et al., 5-2012 Sensitivity to tighter limits (N-Balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions N-applied (mio. kg N) N-applied after losses (mio. kg N) Mineral fertilizer1,600 Organic fertilizer (animals)1,180680 Organic fertilizer (biogas)150127 SUM2,9302,407 Net Surplus601 N-Balance surplus (kg N / ha) % share of net N-Balance surplus above the threshold 0100% ( = 601 mio. kg N) 2060% 4034% 5024% 6017% 8010% 1007% (37 kg / ha UAA)

19. Röder et al., 5-2012 Transport of slurry (only intercommunal transport) Organic N application (municipality average (in kg / ha)) N in Slurry from animals N in Biogas slurry Required transport service (in 1,000 ton km 1) ) Export required Import allowed Quantity (in 1,000 tons) Transport distance (in km) Quantity (in 1,000 tons) Transport distance (in km) 170 11,612,26,76,3184 (23%) 170150 11,612,65,96,4184 (21%) 160140 12,013,18,27,6219 (28%) 150130 12,913,911,09,7286 (37%) 1) In brackets share of biogas slurry on total Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

20. Röder et al., 5-2012 Conclusions High loads (N & P) primarily generated by large number of farms with small surplusses Animal husbandry mainly limited by P-Balance while political debate focusses on N-application and N-Balance  To reduce N / P emissions it‘s more important to increase overall efficiency instead of focussing only on farms wtih very high manure input „Unavoidable losses“ are an important trigger to (un)tighten restrictions Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

21. Röder et al., 5-2012 Conclusions Increasing N exports might imply only reallocation of surplus but not necessarily increased (physical) N efficiency Manure surplus regions can export their manure within reasonable distances Biogas adds significant amounts of organic fertilizer only slightly aggrevates the manure disposal problem in regions with high stocking densities Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

22. Röder et al., 5-2012 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick  Effektivität AUM gegeben –Erhaltung gegeben –Extensivierung fraglich  Effizienz AUM fraglich  Referenzsystem für die Prämienermittlung  Balance zwischen Zielgenauigkeit und Transaktionskosten  Prämiengestaltung bei stark schwankender Agrarpreise Gliederung Problemstellung Handlungsrahmen Gute fachliche Praxis vs. Cross Compliance Effektivität und Effizienz Optimierungs- möglichkeiten Zusammenfassung und Ausblick Thank you for your attention contact: Norbert Röder norbert.roeder@vti.bund.de