1. Car Ownership in Singapore Fu Haidong Lin Di Lin Yingnan Qin Shuang Zhang Qi

2. Have you ever encounter this ? Or..this ?

3. Introduction There are approximately 511,125 private cars in Singapore by year 2010 Private car population has shown an average annual increase rate of 4.24% over the past 10 years.

5. Congestion Longer waiting and trip time Delay for work and study Stress on drivers and passengers Lower productivity Hinder economic development

6. Pollution Air pollution Noise pollution. Endanger people’s life

7. Problem definition : Fast growing number of car ownerships results in large number of private cars on the road, which will further cause serious problems such as congestion and pollution Objective : Analyze the current car ownership system in Singapore Propose policies Reduce the current growth rate of car ownership.

8. Outline Methodology and formulation - Haidong Model Build – Haidong and Lin Di Result and Sensitivity analysis - Yingnan Policy – Qin Shuang

9. COE system in Singapore Bidding for COE Start Scrap or export the car with financial incentive Year 10 Certificate of Entitlement Released twice a month with limited quota Five categories Valid for 10 years Bidders indicate their reserved price Highest bidders stay within the quota will get COEs. What is COE?How to bid for COE? Obtain the COE

10. Specification of our study Target on category A and B of COE Study period: from 2000 to 2050. Simulation on yearly basis Actual data for first 10 years Projected data for rest of 40 years

11. Methodology Formulation Model Building Result Analysis Identification of factors Examining relationships Represent in CLD iThink Data Converter Stock and Flow

12. Formulation - Causal Loop Diagram car population private car population growth rate planned by LTA Annual COE quota bidding success rate number of new bids COE price total expense of car public transport attractiveness COE valid period + - + + + - + + - - - B B

13. Model Building - Stock and Flow Diagram Total no. of cars Disposal per year New purchase per year New COE per year Actual COE for first 10 years Projected COE after 10 years COE quota Car ownership net increase rate Discrepancy between desired & actual growth rate Max allowable net increase rate Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Modified COE growth rate Reference COE growth rate Effect of no. of bids on COE growth rate Disposal rate for first 10 years Delayed disposal rate COE valid period Perceived discrepancy

14. Model Building - Stock and Flow Diagram

15. success rate perceived success rate COE price population growth ratio nominal new bidsreference population populationeffect of perceived success rate on number of new bids perceived annual expense effect of perceived annual expense on number of new bids perceived public transport convenience relative public transport affordability public transport availability base new bidsprobability of withdrawal modified COE growth rate reference COE growth rate effect of number of bids on COE growth rate effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate equivalent annual expense

16. Simulation Results

17. Results: Car Ownership 411,507 1,146,195

18. Results: Car Ownership return

19. Results Analysis 12,300 30,000 No. of buses

20. 4M 9M Results Analysis No. of buses Population

21. 0.22 0.24 Results Analysis No. of buses Population Availability Convenience

22. 50,000 300,000 Results Analysis No. of buses Population Availability Convenience % of population taking public transport % of population bidding Number of bids

23. 141,525 40,986 Results Analysis No. of buses Population Availability Convenience % of population taking public transport % of population bidding Number of bids COE quota No. of cars

24. Results Analysis

25. Sensitivity Analysis To verify assumptions To design policies Average bus fare Average bus capacity Life time of a car Reference COE growth rate Average bus usage per year COE price against success rate Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Effect of car expenses on no. of new bids

26. Average Bus Capacity Current value: 100 No. of runs: 10 Variation type: incremental Increment: 15 Start value: 50 End value: 200

27. COE Price against Success Rate

28. Policies Policy 1: Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Policy 2: Improve public transport efficiency Policy 3: Reduce the COE validity period

29. Car ownership net increase rate Maximum allowable net increase rate Discrepancy between desired and actual car ownership growth rate Perceived discrepancy Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Net COE per year COE quota Modified COE growth rate Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership How does it work?

30. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Current situation

31. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership What is the difference?difference

32. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Reduce the car ownership by about 600,000

33. Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency Increase average bus capacity from 100 to 150 by having more double-decker buses Increase the bus growth rate 360 to 720 Reduce average bus fare from $2 to $0.5

34. Bus Net bus increase rate Average bus capacity Actual bus number increase rate for first 10 years Populatio n Public transport availability Estimated bus number increase rate after 10 years Increase Average Bus Capacity and Bus Growth Rate How does it work?

35. Average usage of bus per year Average bus fareNormalizing factor for public transport affordability Equivalent annual expense Relative public transport affordability Reduce Average Bus Fare How does it work?

36. Total number of bids received New bidders for COE Public transport availability Relative public transport affordability Perceived public transport convenience Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency How does it work?

37. Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency Reduce the car ownership by about 400,000

38. Disposal per year Delayed disposal rate COE validity period Car ownership New purchase per year Policy 3: Reduce the COE validity period from 10 years to 5 years How does it work?

39. Policy 3: Reduce COE validity period from 10 years to 5 years Reduce the car ownership by about 100,000

40. Conclusion Limitation of policiesA combination of policies can be usedLimitation of our research

41. The EndThank You !

42. S&F: Actual COE for First 10 Years Back

43. Effect of Success Rate on COE Price

44. Population

45. Effect of Perceived Success Rate on Number of New Bids

46. equivalent annual expense disposal priceone-off paymentCOE validity period total annual cost One off paymentGSTAverage Open Market Value of a car Total vehicle Tax GST rateExercise dutyAdditional registration fee Registration fee Exercise duty as % of OMV ARF as % of OMV

47. Effect of Car Expense on Number of New Bids

49. Effect of Number of bids on COE Growth Rate

50. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership