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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Trop goup.

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Presentation on theme: "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Trop goup."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Trop goup – 10th Oct

2 Will there be a change in TC activity (location, intensity, frequency, lifetime, structure) with climate change? How does this change depend on resolution? How well are the governing mechanisms represented in climate models and how does resolution affect their representation? What is the role of teleconnections - Possible ENSO changes on NAtl TC activity? [What is the role of coupling with the ocean?] PhD questions

3 Explaining the change of TC activity – Change in parameters relevant to TCs: SST, vws, RH, -ω Investigating the ENSO teleconnections on TCs (and possible ENSO change) - Change in NINO3.4 SSTs - El Niño composites vs. La Niña composites Current work

4 Tighter filter on storms. Warm core testing between individual levels (still applying dec. Vor. With height) Test for cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft Removes monsoon type depressions New warm core level TRACKing

5 Change in track densities with increased CO 2

6 Change in TC frequency (%) TC/yrNHATLWPACEPACNIND % change For ctrl att 30yr 2xCO2 -5.6-0.7-24.8-22-8.7-6.6-3.27.714.638.6 30yr 4xCO2 -22.2-13.6-47.5-41.7-22.0-19.25-40.73-25.39-2.7615.92 CPAC -1.67-8.57 38.4640.79

7 Regional change of 850hPa wspeed

8 Large scale tropical change

9 regional scale tropical change

10 Change in SST Zhao et al (2009)

11 Change in vws Vecchi et al (2007)

12 Change in RH 700 Vecchi et al (2007)

13 Change in –ω 500

14 Change in ppt

15 ENSO telleconnections on HiGEM TCs Bengtsson et al (2006) NINO3.4 SST DJF > 1 or <1, year containing D

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17 Future work More analysis explaining the TC change – change in Walker and Hadley plots TCs in different resolutions and climate change simulations Changes in SH ENSO influence on NATL activity - compare IBTrACS and re- analysis to HiGEM present day simulation.

18 2 types of ENSO in HiGEM Kug and Ham (2011) Investigate change in TC activity with the 2 types of El Nino. Investigate the change in types of ENSO in HiGEM inc. CO2 and the TC relation

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20 HiGEM CTRL TC frequency CPAC 5x30 years ctrl 4.3 (1-4.4) 3 (0-4.2) TC/yrNHATLWPACEPACNIND att 5x30 years ctrl 67.3 (63.9- 71) 49.8 (47.1- 51.3) 4 (5.1- 2) 3 (1- 4.1) 32.6 (28.9- 41) 28.6 (26.4- 34) 19.4 (17.3- 22) 10.4 (9.5- 10.6) 4.6 (3- 5.6) 3.1 (2.3- 3.7) Obs (83-07) 6312.328.316.65.8 9.0 10.8 11.4 12.1 14.8 Atl Additional obs are 1851-2010, 1944-2010, 1966-2010, 1981-2010, 1995-2010 From Blake (2010)

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23 Change in structure 100 most intense TCs at most intense 4xCO2 Earth relative winds Below 35 o N NH 2xCO2 10 o radius 850hPa Avg 30 yr ctrl

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