1. Rice-Wheat Food System -- Socioeconomic and Policy Issues P K Joshi National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012

2. Organization of presentation 1.Background 2.Objectives 3.Institutional and policy issues 5.Performance of rice-wheat system 6.Sustainability of rice-wheat system 7.Issues for future research

3. I. Background Rice and wheat are the most important crops in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) IGP was characterized for green revolution as a result of HYVs of rice and wheat The region contributes about 60% of total rice and wheat production in the country This region accounts for more than 75% of total procurement in the country

4. Emerging issues Over production is burdening state exchequer Rice and wheat yields are stagnating Total factor productivity is decelerating Intensification led to degradation of natural resources

5. II. Objectives How is the performance of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain? –Production –Profitability –Sustainability What are the key sources of production growth in rice and wheat? How to sustain production of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain?

6. Indo Gangetic Plain Study area TGP UGP MGP LGP

7. Indo Gangetic Plain FS Plains Arid NWP SWP CP NEP EP Vindyan NEP SBP NBP BP RP CAP ACSP Sub-Regions Study domain

8. Policy initiatives Subsidy on –Fertilizer –Canal water –power tariff –Improved varieties of seeds –Credit Minimum support prices Assured procurement of rice and wheat

9. Institutional aspects Investment in agricultural research Seed sector Credit institutions Irrigation network

10. III. Performance of Rice and wheat

11. Production of Rice and Wheat in Indo- Gangetic Plain

16. IV Sources of growth in rice and wheat production Technology Area Policy

22. Sources of area expansion Utilization of fallow lands –Cropping intensity increased from 130 in 1967 to 175 in 1998 Crop substitution –Coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds Management of degraded lands –1 m ha alkali soil was reclaimed –Contributed >20% of increased production

24. Sources of change in gross income-rice

25. Sources of change in gross income-wheat

26. Part III Sustainability issues of rice and wheat

29. Indicators of sustainability Economic Indicators Growth in production Yield level Yield stability Environmental Indicators Groundwater Land degradation Biodiversity

30. Sustainability Index of rice and wheat

31. Sustainability status Of rice 1966-67 1996-97 During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are Vindyan and South Bihar plain in Middle gangetic plain and Barind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain region.During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are Vindyan and South Bihar plain in Middle gangetic plain and Barind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain region. In 1987-96, Plains in Trans gangetic plain; North western plain in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar,North Bihar and North east in Middle gangetic plain and Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain becomes unsustainable.In 1987-96, Plains in Trans gangetic plain; North western plain in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar,North Bihar and North east in Middle gangetic plain and Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain becomes unsustainable. Unsustainable regions

32. Sustainability status Of wheat 1966-671996-97 Unsustainable region Unsustainable regions During 1966-67, all the regions except North eastern plain in Middle gangetic plain,were sustainable regions.During 1966-67, all the regions except North eastern plain in Middle gangetic plain,were sustainable regions. During 1987-96, Plains in Trans gangetic plain; North western and South western in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar, North eastern and North east in Middle gangetic plain and Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable.During 1987-96, Plains in Trans gangetic plain; North western and South western in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar, North eastern and North east in Middle gangetic plain and Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable.

33. Future researchable issues Reform in irrigation sector Price policy Technology intervention in slow growth regions Agricultural diversification in high growth regions –High value enterprises –Export led enterprises Innovative institutional models

34. Conclusions Policies, institutions and technologies played important role in increasing production of rice and wheat Growth rates in yields as well as of TFP of rice and wheat are decelerating Deceleration in growth of yields and TFP in low-yielding regions is a matter of serious concern

35. Conclusions Many environmental problems have erupted as a result of defective policies Huge potential exists in increasing yields of rice and wheat Opportunities are to be explored in lagging regions Input price policies need to be corrected for their efficient utilization, and containing degradation of natural resources

36. Thank you