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The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty Mahar Mangahas Presented during the 1st M&E Network Forum organized by NEDA and UNICEF, November 7-8, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty Mahar Mangahas Presented during the 1st M&E Network Forum organized by NEDA and UNICEF, November 7-8, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty Mahar Mangahas Presented during the 1st M&E Network Forum organized by NEDA and UNICEF, November 7-8, 2011 Crowne Plaza Manila Galleria, Quezon City

2 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 2 On Feb. 8, 2011, NSCB announced a “refinement” of the average official poverty line for 2009, to Php 7,017 from Php 7,953 (by 11.8%), per month for a family of 5. This reduced officially-poor families to 20.9% from 26.3% (by 5.4 pts), or to 3.9M from 4.9M (by 1M families). This also reduced the officially-poor population to 26.5% from 32.6% (by 6.1 pts), or to 23.1M from 28.5M (by 5.4M people). HOW NSCB “REDUCED” POVERTY

3 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 3 HOW NSCB DOWNGRADED THE NCR FOOD BUNDLE Meal timeViands BreakfastTomato omelette Coffee for adults Milk for children Fried rice Luncha. Fried galunggong b. Mongo guisado with malunggay leaves and small shrimps Boiled rice Banana latundan DinnerPork adobo Pechay guisado Boiled rice Banana latundan SnacksPandesal with margarine Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2011/021411_rav_joe_bbb.asp Meal timeViands BreakfastScrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice Luncha. Boiled mongo with malunggay leaves and dried dilis Boiled rice Banana latundan DinnerFried tulingan Boiled kangkong Boiled rice SnacksPandesal Old methodology“Refined” methodology

4 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 4 It downgraded the quality of the diet of the borderline poor so as to cut the food threshold. By reducing the officially-seen evidence of poverty, it covered up the extent of the poverty problem. It has never worked on specific non-food needs, aside from allotting a fixed 31 centavos for every 69 centavos for food. THE NSCB “REFINED” METHODOLOGY TRULY REDUCED THE OFFICIAL LIVING STANDARD

5 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 5 NSCB’S OLD AND “REFINED” THRESHOLDS Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 17. NSCB compares old to new, rather than new to old!

6 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 6 MONTHLY FOOD POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES3,3953,1572384,1773,8573205,2984,869429 NCR4,1564,073824,9204,7981226,2215,763458 CAR3,8093,1826274,5153,7507655,6164,687929 Region I3,7083,4452624,4204,1732475,5935,162430 Region II3,3383,0023353,8943,5533415,2574,452805 Region III3,8953,7091854,5404,466745,8175,545272 Region IV-A3,8433,5582854,4924,1253675,7535,116637 Region IV-B3,4703,0294414,0753,6963805,1554,574580 Region V3,4913,3311604,2393,9642755,4544,993461 Region VI3,4933,0734214,1513,6085435,3114,689622 Region VII2,9233,396-4733,9594,195-2364,8295,171-342 Region VIII3,2042,8683354,0303,4655645,1674,636531 Region IX3,0182,8102083,9193,4284924,8654,411453 Region X3,3313,0472854,0653,7832825,1394,810329 Region XI3,2733,1221514,2853,9133715,4084,950458 Region XII3,2532,9812724,0433,6493945,0054,589416 CARAGA3,4843,0384464,3093,7915185,4654,943522 ARMM3,6382,8378004,2993,6256755,4784,705774 200320062009

7 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 7 MONTHLY POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNewO - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES5,1294,5735556,2745,5627127,9537,017936 NCR6,9745,8321,1428,5696,8701,70010,5448,2512,293 CAR5,8474,5341,3137,0045,4071,5988,8856,7182,168 Region I5,5344,9136216,6485,9796698,1827,403778 Region II4,7574,3134455,7465,0886587,6536,3781,275 Region III5,9915,3216707,2086,4068028,9767,9091,068 Region IV-A6,1335,1649697,4005,9521,4499,0717,4081,663 Region IV-B5,1684,3338356,1675,2549137,6216,5701,051 Region V5,1584,7823766,2565,6855717,8557,144711 Region VI5,1214,3957266,0025,1808227,6006,682918 Region VII4,0854,916- 8305,5796,028- 4496,9637,437- 474 Region VIII4,5024,1043985,8234,9528707,3386,629709 Region IX4,3364,0183195,5084,9215876,8456,317528 Region X4,8354,3754605,9165,4115057,3676,903463 Region XI4,7504,4742766,2265,6126147,9397,100839 Region XII4,7204,2824385,9275,2217067,1556,568587 CARAGA4,9984,3156846,3545,3909647,9937,024969 ARMM5,3224,0271,2956,4725,1491,3238,0376,8061,231 200320062009

8 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 8 NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (8 Feb 2011) Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 18. This would have made PH the worst in ASEAN!

9 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 9 NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (14 Feb 2011) Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2011/021411_rav_joe_bbb.asp This would have made PH second- worst in ASEAN! NSCB in effect asserts that 45.3% - 33.1% = 12.2% of the people in 1991 were “not really” poor!

10 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 10 POVERTY % OF FAMILIES (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES24.420.04.426.921.15.826.320.95.4 NCR4.82.12.77.13.43.77.82.65.2 CAR25.816.19.728.818.610.228.917.111.8 Region I24.417.86.626.220.45.823.117.85.3 Region II19.315.24.120.515.55.023.614.59.1 Region III13.49.44.016.812.04.816.312.04.3 Region IV-A14.59.25.316.79.47.317.210.36.9 Region IV-B39.929.810.143.734.39.437.227.69.6 Region V40.638.02.641.836.15.741.136.05.1 Region VI31.423.57.931.122.19.030.223.86.4 Region VII23.632.1-8.530.333.5-3.226.530.2-3.7 Region VIII35.330.25.140.731.19.639.233.26.0 Region IX44.040.53.540.234.26.039.836.63.2 Region X37.732.45.336.132.73.435.832.83.0 Region XI28.525.43.130.626.24.431.025.65.4 Region XII32.127.24.933.827.16.733.028.14.9 CARAGA47.137.69.545.536.98.647.839.88.0 ARMM45.425.020.455.336.518.853.738.115.6 200320062009

11 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 11 POVERTY % OF POPULATION (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES30.024.95.132.926.46.532.626.56.1 NCR6.93.23.710.45.45.011.24.07.2 CAR32.221.710.534.523.011.535.222.912.3 Region I30.222.87.432.726.66.129.423.36.1 Region II24.519.64.925.520.05.529.418.810.6 Region III17.512.45.120.715.25.520.115.34.8 Region IV-A18.412.16.320.912.38.621.913.98.0 Region IV-B48.137.510.652.742.210.545.835.010.8 Region V48.545.82.751.145.25.950.245.15.1 Region VI39.230.68.638.628.610.038.331.27.1 Region VII28.337.2-8.935.438.8-3.431.735.5-3.8 Region VIII43.037.65.448.539.09.547.741.46.3 Region IX49.245.73.545.339.85.546.343.13.2 Region X44.038.85.243.139.73.442.239.62.6 Region XI34.731.03.736.631.74.937.331.36.0 Region XII38.433.15.340.833.17.740.935.75.2 CARAGA54.044.79.352.644.08.655.747.87.9 ARMM52.831.421.461.842.819.061.045.915.1 200320062009

12 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 12 ALL NSCB ACHIEVED WAS WINDOW-DRESSING Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 16. At the “old” estimates of 37.3% or 32.9%, PH would be either worst or 2 nd -worst in ASEAN!

13 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 13 NSCB WENT ANTI-LABOR BY CLAIMING “A MINIMUM WAGE EARNER IN NCR CAN SUPPORT A FAMILY OF SIX.” Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 13.

14 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 14 It does nothing to deal with the problem of lack of annual poverty statistics. It fosters complacency about Philippine poverty, turning attention to comparison with other countries, instead of improvements over time. It works against the need of workers to maintain the real wage, let alone upgrade it. If adopted for program targeting (e.g. CCT), it will lower the number of qualified beneficiaries. THE EFFECT OF NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT”

15 The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, 2011 15 CONCLUSION: THE NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT” SHOULD BE REJECTED, BECAUSE REDUCING THE EVIDENCE ABOUT POVERTY IS AGAINST THE PRINCIPLE OF EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING

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