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Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain"— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Analysing food system vulnerability Pramod Joshi Director National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research DPS Road, New Delhi, India

2 Quotes on poverty and food insecurity
Poverty (food insecurity) is the worst kind of violence Mahatma Gandhi If a free society can not help the many who are poor and food insecure, it can not save the few who are rich John F Kennedy

3 Key IGP climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities
and development goals Initial effort in identifying which S/holders are relevant and important: different in each region Three regional examples of stakeholder concerns about GEC; also list of food policy goals (note that may not be connected). Indo-Gangetic Plain Issues Altered monsoon Reducing glacier and snow melt Reduced ground water Key Policy Goals Increasing and diversifying ag production Reducing seasonal ag labour migration Improved water management Example Stakeholders State & National ag & env ministries National Ag Research Institutes & CGIAR NGOs (NWCF, BUP) GEC Research Institutes (GCISC, APN)

4 Indo-Gangetic Plain: Strong W – E variations
Eastern Region (Zones 4 & 5) Low productivity – food deficit Poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water High risk of flooding Chronic poverty Stress that the focus is on water related stresses. Western Region (Zones 1, 2 & 3) High productivity – food surplus High investment in infrastructure Major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation Irrigation real costs very high

5 Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneity
Step 1: Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneity Gujarat, Punjab Pakistan wheat high ag inputs & effective institutions variable water availability changes in snow/glacier melt rising GHG emissions Ruhani Basin, Terai Nepal rice/wheat: low crop yields out-migration of labour seasonal flooding variable water availability Ludihana, Punjab India rice/wheat stagnant productivity growth high ag inputs & effective institutions variable water availability groundwater depletion changes in snow/glacier melt rising GHG emissions Stress that the focus is on water related stresses. Greater Faridpur Bangladesh rice low income levels institutions failing drought seasonal flooding sea level & salt water intrusion Vaisahali, Bihar India rice low infrastructure & investment low income levels out migration of labour little government policy support seasonal flooding variable water availability Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

6 Step 2: Use standardised methods to describe food system determinants in each Case Study Example from Vaishali District, Bihar for 2 of the 9 food system determinants Food System Determinant Key Factor Characteristics Trend Importance to System Sensitivity to GEC Social Value Social bonding/celebrations Very strong Changing Secondary Not known Role of food in kinship High Esteem from agricultural production/ farmer identity Weakening Decreasing Primary Little Food Safety Public awareness regarding hygiene Low Improving Presence of pathogens Yes Changes with seasonality Some effect on food quality Stress that the focus is on water related stresses.

7 What determines the vulnerability of the food system to climate change?
Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY and VULNERABILITY Exposure to GEC GECAFS view of vulnerability – function of adaptive capacity and resilience SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.

8 (indicative results : research just started)
Step 3: Systematically analyse food system vulnerability to CC in Case Studies (indicative results : research just started) Food Security determinant (examples) Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Sensitivity to current stress Current coping capacity Overall vulnerability Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Main protein (pulses) in Terai Variable onset of monsoon Protein content depends on cultivar & planting date Low due to few improved cultivars or forecasts High due to weak ag and met extension services Affordability (Food Access): Household incomes in Bihar Insufficient rainfall Agricultural income depends on yields and adequate market Moderate due to some – but limited – options to migrate to find off-farm income due to social constraints on migration Production (Food Availability): Irrigation potential in Punjab Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Production depends on timely irrigation Low due to declining water table and no water pricing options due to declining water table & flawed institutional arrangements

9 Approach to identifying adaptive capacity
Document Current Exposure Current Vulnerability Climate Science Assess Current Adaptive Capacity Assess Future Change Exposure Social Change and Process Future Vulnerability Assess Future Adaptive Capacity Identify Modification for Future Adaptive Capacity From Gopal Joshi, Clean Energy Nepal. After: Desanker and Nassef, 2003; Jones et al.,2002; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Lim 2003)

10 Step 4: Determine food system adaptation options and capacity in Case Studies
(future research) Food Security determinant (examples) Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Adaptive options, capacity and feedbacks Sensitivity to FUTURE stress (aim) FUTURE vulnerability Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Main protein (pulses) in Terai Variable onset of monsoon Access to improved cultivars Lower Moderate Affordability (Food Access): Household incomes in Bihar Insufficient rainfall Risk mitigation through improved technologies & agricultural insurance Low Production (Food Availability): Irrigation potential in Punjab Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Resource conservation and frontier technologies Moderate to High

11 Framework needed to improve links between science and policy
How can policies and strategies make best use of science? How to communicate and with whom? National level? Local level? Research organisations? Ministries? How to make the research message compelling, given that conceptual understanding is poor? How to communicate given challenge of uncertainty?

12 Integrating GECAFS concepts and methods to support decision-making
Current Food Systems Establish Regional Agenda Assess Vulnerability Build Scenarios ? Support Decision- Making Identify Adaptation Analyse Feedbacks Adapted Food Systems

13 Pool resources to combat climate change for peace & prosperity in the world
Thank you

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