1. 1 The Utilization of Water Resources for Agriculture in the SAR : Analysis of the Current Regime and Policy Prof. Consuelo Varela Ortega Ing. Juan Antonio Sagardoy Damascus, Syria, 12 January 2002 GCP/SYR/006/ITA FAO-ITALIAN GOVERNMENT COOPERATIVE PROGRAM ASSISTANCE IN INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND AGRICULTURAL POLICY - SYRIA 1

2. 2 OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION 1.The main problems 2.Results and Conclusions On water resourcesOn water resources On the adoption of modern irrigation technologiesOn the adoption of modern irrigation technologies 3.Recommendations Water balancesWater balances Modernization of groundwater irrigated areasModernization of groundwater irrigated areas Modernization of surface irrigated areasModernization of surface irrigated areas Irrigation expansionIrrigation expansion Training and extensionTraining and extension Water User AssociationsWater User Associations 2

3. 3 1.1 Main problems of water resources management The total water resources for the Syria are 14589 million m3/year while the total uses are 19162 million m3/year and the national water balance is negative with a deficit of 3104 million m3/year. Future growth of population will increase the deficit unless demand is proportionally reduced The balance per basin shows that only three basins, namely Euphrates, Coastal and Al Badia have a positive balance. The remaining have considerable negative balances as shown below. The situation in the Al Khabour and Orantes basins are quite alarming Barada Yarmouk Al Badia Orontes Coastal Al Khabour Euphrates Total -311 -206 2 -856640 -3105 732 -3104 3

4. 4 1.2 Main problems in the adoption of modern irrigation technologies To respond to the need for reducing the demand, a modernization of the whole irrigated area (1 200 000 ha) in a period of 4 years has been approved. The rate of adoption of modern irrigation techniques from 1999 to 2000 was 37686 ha and for the period 1998-1999 was 19641 ha. Although these rates are quite satisfactory and show a positive growing trend, they are below planned rates. Adoption of modern irrigation systems in public surface irrigation systems will present technological problems as most of the irrigation networks work in a rotation system. Such modality is not compatible with the use of sprinkler and drip irrigation systems that require a frequent water supply (daily or every 2-3 days). 4

5. 5 2.(1) Results and Conclusions (I) Macro analysis: national and regional levels 2.1 Simulation of Future Scenarios for the demand of water resources Four scenarios have been developed to simulate alternative water policies. The scenarios where developed for all main basins of Syria and compiled at country level.Graphs for the country level and one basin (Al Kahbour ) are presented in following slides.Four scenarios have been developed to simulate alternative water policies. The scenarios where developed for all main basins of Syria and compiled at country level.Graphs for the country level and one basin (Al Kahbour ) are presented in following slides. (II) Micro analysis: farm level 2.2 Simulations of adoption of modern technologies Farm models scenarios were developed to assess the impact of adopting modern irrigation technologies in different types of farms and water sources.Farm models scenarios were developed to assess the impact of adopting modern irrigation technologies in different types of farms and water sources. 5

6. 6 Scenario 1. Present policy Combination of irrigation modernization (4 years) and irrigation expansion (15 years). Water balances for the countryW B for the Al Khabour basin 6

7. 7 Scenario 2: Modernization policy: Modernization of existing irrigation schemes with no expansion of irrigation Water balances for the countryW B for the Al Khabour basin 7

8. 8 Scenario 3. Long-term combined policy: Combination of irrigation modernization (80000 ha/year and irrigation expansion 27 600 ha/year (15 years both processes) Scenario 3. Long-term combined policy: Combination of irrigation modernization (80000 ha/year and irrigation expansion 27 600 ha/year (15 years both processes) Water balances for the countryW B for the Al Khabour basin 8

9. 9 Scenario 4. Differentiated policy: Only modernization in critical basins and limited irrigation expansion (12 000 ha/year) in positive-balance basins. Water balances for the country W B for the Al Khabour basin 9

10. 10 2.(2) Results and Conclusions (II) Micro analysis at farm level: Farm models A total of 23 Farm models were developed for simulating the adoption of modern technologies and assess its impact. These models result from the combination of farm types, water sources and technologies: A farm typology was constructed based on:A farm typology was constructed based on: 3 representative farms selected according to size, location and crop distribution that account for 77% of irrigated holdings and 65% of land  Large (14 ha), extensive (wheat, cotton)  Medium (5 ha), semi-intensive (wheat, cotton, sugar beet, potato)  Small (1.5 ha), intensive (potato,tomato,oranges) 2 water sources were considered2 water sources were considered  River water  Well water (50 m, 100 m, 200 m, well depth) 3 types of irrigation techniques were considered3 types of irrigation techniques were considered  Surface, Sprinkler, Drip 10

11. 11 Effects of irrigation technologies on farm profit Large farm Medium farm Small farm 11

12. 12 Financial returns of water by farm type, water source and irrigation technology Large farm Medium farm Small farm 12

13. 13 2.(3) Results of the Farm level Analysis Effects on Farm profits Adoption of modern irrigation increases farm profits in all farms but at different levels: Increase in Farm net margin/ha is low in the large farm, moderate in the medium and high in the small farm. When water is extracted form wells, increase in farm profits is higher (67%) than in the case of river water (33%), as volumetric water costs are highly reduced Drip irrigation has a clear advantage in intensive small farms of well water (+111% increase) Sprinkler irrigation has advantage in large extensive farms Effects on the productivity of water Adoption of modern technologies increases financial returns of water for all farm types, but at different levels: Lowest: 6 SP/m3 for sprinklers in large farm, Highest: 36 SP/m3 for drip in the small farm Sprinkler irrigation increases water productivity by 100% and drip irrigation by 200% 13

14. 14 3. (1) Recommendations On Water resources policy 1.A differentiated water basin policy would offer the best opportunity to reduce the imbalances among basins. Such policy should consist of: – an intensive plan of modernization (8 years) in the most critical basins (39000 ha/year in Al Khabour and 16000 ha/year in Orontes) with a lower rate of implementation in those basins where the deficit is smaller. –In the water basins where balance is positive, development of new irrigation can be restricted to existing resources(11000-13000 ha/year) 2.The implementation of the above recommendation in the Al Khabour and Orontes basins will no be sufficient to re-establish a positive balance in the time span considered and additional measures will be required to achieve a sustainable balance. 14

15. 15 3. (2) Recommendations On Modernization of groundwater irrigated areas 3. 3.Such additional measures may be: Limit the amount of water/ha that can be used in every well (aquifers recharge rate) penalizing those that exceed it with a penalty fee. It requires metering devices and strict control. Establish the maximum amount of water that can be utilized per ha and its equivalence in area planted for each crop under each technology. This is referred to as: Water/crop quota system Closing of wells that do not fulfill specified criteria (efficiency, unauthorized, double source of water, unsuitable water quality, etc.) 4.A detailed survey of the use of well water should be carried out to determine the most suitable combination of measures. 15

16. 16 3. (3) Recommendations On Modernization of groundwater irrigated areas 5. 5.In the absence of the survey and water measuring devices the most feasible alternative in the short run would be to implement a water/crop quota system.   This will permit the farmers to chose their cropping pattern within an established quota of water and have it approved by the government authorities.   To avoid distortion of the national objectives of strategic crops’ production, the government should fix crop prices to achieve those objectives.  and complemented by other measures.  This system should be implemented gradually over a 5 years period and complemented by other measures. 16

17. 17 3. (4) Recommendations Irrigation Technique Wheat ha Cotton ha Sugar beet ha Sunflower seeds ha Barley ha Traditional irrigation0,90,250,60,90,90 Sprinkler irrigation1,200,351,01,20 Drip irrigation1,200,451,11,301,20 Example of water-crop quota system: Water allocation of 4000 m3/ha (1 st year) Irrigation Technique Wheat ha Cotton ha Sugar beet ha Sunflower seeds ha Barley ha Traditional irrigation0,600,150,50,60,60 Sprinkler irrigation0,900,250,700,740,84 Drip irrigation0,900,400,770,900,84 Example of water-crop quota system: Water allocation of 2700 m3/ha (5 th year) 17

18. 18 3. (5) Recommendations 6.The implementation of these measures should be accompanied by some financial incentives to facilitate enforcement. 7.Partial subsidy of the investment cost in irrigation technologies is recommended in the critical basins (Al Khabour and Orontes). A 50% subsidy will cost some 600 Million SP at national level. 8.Sprinkler irrigation is suitable for wheat but not adequate for all phases of crop development of cotton. The inverse applies for drip irrigation. The water/crop quota system will permit to overcome this serious technical limitation by allowing the farmers to specialize in specific crops or cropping patterns 9.Monitoring and control of the adoption of modern irrigation techniques should be implemented. Statistical information at farm level should be developed as modern irrigation has different financial effects across farm types 18

19. 19 3. (6) Recommendations On Modernization of surface irrigated areas On Modernization of surface irrigated areas 10.It is estimated that some 265000 has of public irrigation systems were developed in the last 10 years and have acceptable levels of efficiency. In these systems: Adoption of pressurized modern irrigation techniques will be limited to canals operating on continuous supplyAdoption of pressurized modern irrigation techniques will be limited to canals operating on continuous supply Precision land leveling should be adopted in the remaining areasPrecision land leveling should be adopted in the remaining areas 11.Measuring of water delivery contributes effectively to reduce water use. It is recommended that in the areas where modernization will not take place in the early years: measuring devices ( Parshall, cut-throat and others) should be installed andmeasuring devices ( Parshall, cut-throat and others) should be installed and water should be delivered according to acceptable crop water consumption standards of surface irrigation methods water should be delivered according to acceptable crop water consumption standards of surface irrigation methods 19

20. 20 3. (7) Recommendations On Irrigation expansion On Irrigation expansion 12.Expansion of the irrigation area is planned on 414395 ha over a period of 15 years. Most of this area is planned in the Euphrates and Tigris basin with 160000 ha and 136545 in the Al Kabour basin. 13.Scenarios 1 and show that such developments are incompatible with a policy aimed to recover the equilibrium of the overexploited aquifers as they tend to revert the gains made through the modernization policy, particularly in the Al Khabour basin 14.Scenario 4 shows that some 170000 ha of new irrigation could be developed in the next 15 year but concentrating this development in the basins were the water resources balance is still positive. That is: 125000 ha in the Euphrates and Tigris basin and125000 ha in the Euphrates and Tigris basin and 45000 ha in the Coastal region45000 ha in the Coastal region and this will be compatible with the recovery of the aquifers. 20

21. 21 3.(8) Recommendations On Training and extension: 15.The implementation of the modernization targets should be accompanied by an intensive training program. The training program should be addressed to the following agents:   Farmers   Extension agents   Professionals from the public and private sector to increase the design and implementation capacity 16.The number of people to be trained in each category and the related costs will require the preparation of a detailed proposal. The following target is a gross estimation for an initial period of 5 years   50000 farmers   500 extension agents   30-40 professionals from the public and private sector 21

22. 22 3. (8) Recommendations On Water User Associations (WUA) 17.The establishment of WUAs in public irrigation systems does not appear as an urgent need but a greater participation in the decision making processes is recommended. 18.Such mechanism could consist in the establishment of Irrigation Committees in every irrigation system integrated by a mix of farmers representatives and government officials. 19.It would be advisable to establish water user associations (WUA) by grouping wells located in the vicinity and discuss with the WUAs the implementation of the measures mentioned before. This could be tried out in some specific areas and, if the results are positive, the experience can be expanded 22

23. 23 (9) Recommendations (9) Recommendations On future training an research activities at the project’s ‘Policy Research Center’ The data base could be revised, updated and enlarged both at – –(1) aggregate national and basin’s level – –(2) farm level (farm types, crop budgets, cropping patterns, technical itineraries, input use…) Field work could be conducted in the main areas of irrigation agriculture (governorates) to obtain crop and farm budgets with accurate data to construct regionally-based farm models New simulations could be carried out for policy analysis (water tariffs, subsidies for adopting new irrigation techniques, penalties for excessive water use…) 23