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Husky Traders Stock Pitch: GMCR Nabil Manji February 26, 2014
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Industry Overview COFFEE! NA/Europe: Coffee = 1/3 of water consumption 2.25b cups consumed per day worldwide Size: ~$120b global market ~$15b sold by coffee brewers/retailers Second most traded commodity behind oil Sectors: Brewers/retailers: SBUX, local coffee shop At Home: Nestle, Folgers (>60% mkt share) New “Convenient At Home”: Keurig, Verisimo, Nespresso, etc.
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GMCR Company Overview Founded 1981 as producer, distributor, and retailer of organic, fair trade, and specialty coffees Buys from farmers refines & roasts sells to brewers, retail chains, and directly to consumers Revolutionized home brewing… No messy filters Variety of choices pleases all Convenient & fast No waste Easy to clean up (no dishes) In 2006, acquired Keurig
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Growth Catalysts Starbucks raising prices $3-5 per drink unsustainable Keurig Pods ~$0.25 per drink Growing health conscience reversion to drip/black coffee away from fat, sugary milk-based espresso drinks Desired convenience without hindrances Easy expansion no regulatory hurdles Sincerest form of flattery is when your competitors copy you… Starbucks VerismoNespresso Cuisinart
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Basic Financials Metric (FY 2013)# Revenue$4.36 b Gross Profit$1.62b (37.16%) Net Income$483m (10.05%) EPS$3.16 (38.60% growth YoY) Dividend$1.00/yr (0.85% yield)
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Technicals v. “Competitors” CompanyGMCRSBUXDNKNSector P/E34.86545.93 37.93 33.70 Price/Sales3.973.48 7.67 5.07 Beta0.871.26 0.45 0.57 Op. Margin % (5yr avg.) 18.37%15.01% 32.94% 18.92% Dividend Yield0.851.47 1.79 2.29 Forecast Sales Growth 11.30%10.90% 7.60% - Price to Cash Flow 23.5167.00 28.00 25.15 Quick Ratio1.840.95 0.90 0.84
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Outlook Strategic: Home brewing growing ~5% annually since 2004 Cost- and health-conscious consumers move away from Starbucks- esque drinks Keurig has long-term contracts with many producers (Lavazza, Dunkin, Tully’s, GMC, etc.) New partnerships with manufacturers (Cuisinart, etc.) increase margins over long-term by focusing on K-pods Entry into commercial market prime for disruption Marketing customer entrenchment Operational: Moving towards asset light structure (outsourcing production to other manufacturers) Rapidly increasing size more power over suppliers
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Risks Patents expired last year easy for competitors to copy Dependence on suppliers to maintain variety Quality concerns over Keurig machines haven’t been satisfactorily addressed/corrected Big price jump after beating 2013 earnings forecasts; maybe we’re too late & future is already priced in?
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Takeaways Price/Stock: Based on sales/margin growth expectations, a bargain compared to competitors & industry/sector Newly implemented dividend of $1.00/share Analyst mean/median target: $125.00 (current price = $116) My Thesis (risky): Keurig entering more retailers, homes, businesses Once people own machine high margin K-cups Earnings play (announcing May 5) Most Keurigs sold holiday season many K-cups will be sold this quarter for new owners
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