1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Missouri and the Kansas City and St. Louis Metro Areas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 20 slides are from the “State of the Church in Missouri” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Missouri Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Missouri?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Missouri will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Missouri has an average church attendance percentage (21.5%) higher than the national average (18.7%).

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7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Missouri.

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9. 9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Missouri. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 – 2000 and highlights the slow population growth in most of the state. Eighteen counties in Missouri have declined in population over the last decade.

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12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Missouri in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Missouri in 1990 and 2000. Evangelical and total attendance have grown slightly, while Mainline and Catholic have declined. As overall worship attendance has declined, the population has changed. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a decrease in the percentage of the population attending church for all groups.

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19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Missouri. The first chart illustrates the dominance of the Catholic and Baptist churches. The second and third charts show the significant decline of all denominations in Missouri.

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23. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use23 The Complete Missouri Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/MO20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

24. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use24 The next 11 slides are from the “State of the Church in Kansas City” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 50 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Kansas City Metro in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is that Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches grew numerically. However, as population has grown, the percentage of the population attending Mainline and Catholic churches has declined. This is a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence. The percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend is shown in the second graph.

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29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this metro area and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. In 2000, Arkansas had the lowest population per church ratio with 411 people per church. Utah had the highest ratio with 4,586 people per church.

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32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 The First Factor to evaluate is the Percentage of the Population that attends a worship service on any given weekend. The first map shows the 2000 percentage for all orthodox Christian churches.

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 Kansas City Metro - Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by County in 2000 14.1% Leavenworth 19.8% Wyandotte 21.8% Johnson 21.4% - 25.0% 21.0% Clay 16.7% Ray 16.7% Clinton 25.0% Jackson 21.6 % Platte 14.9% Cass 22.7% Lafayette 19.1% Miami 17.0% - 21.4% 14.0% - 17.0%

34. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use34 The Next Map shows the 2000 growth or decline in the percentage of the population that attends a worship service on any given weekend for all Mainline churches.

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 Kansas City Metro - Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population Attending a Mainline Church on any Given Weekend by County - 1990-2000 - 23 % Leavenworth - 19 % Wyandotte 4 % Johnson Decline Growth - 7 % Clay - 26 % Ray - 4 % Clinton - 2 % Jackson - 12 % Platte - 28 % Cass - 20 % Lafayette - 10 % Miami

36. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use36 The Complete Kansas City Powerpoint is 49 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm

37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 The next 9 slides are from the “State of the Church in St. Louis ” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the St. Louis area. The St. Louis MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) consists of Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Saint Louis City, and Warren (MO), Clinton, Jersey, Madison, Monroe, and Saint Clair counties (IL).

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 St. Louis Metro Area 2000 Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church on Any Given Weekend 26.0% Saint Louis City 16.9% Warren 15.2% Lincoln 22.5% Franklin 22.3% Saint Louis 14.1% Jefferson 19.1% Saint Charles 22.4% Saint Clair 23.2% Jersey 26.9% Clinton 26.6% Monroe 21.4% Madison

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the St. Louis area in 1990 and 2000. Evangelical churches have grown, while Mainline and Catholic churches have declined in attendance numbers. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. No counties in the St. Louis area grew in attendance percentage and twelve declined.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 St. Louis Metro Area 1990 – 2000 Growth or Decline in Christian Church Attendance -9.5% Saint Louis City -9.4% Warren -27.5% Lincoln -4.2% Franklin -3.6% Saint Louis -7.5% Jefferson -6.6% Saint Charles -3.5% Saint Clair -24.0% Jersey -13.1% Clinton -33.2% Monroe -13.7% Madison

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 The Next Chart shows the net increase in the number of churches in the St. Louis metro area from 1990 - 2000. The net increase equals the number of new churches started minus the number of closed churches. There was a net gain of 38 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in the St. Louis area, there would have needed to have been a net gain of 79 churches from 1990 - 2000. This chart reveals a net gain smaller than needed to keep with population growth. Since closure rates of churches tend to remain constant, the low numbers reflect a smaller than normal number of new churches started.

46. © 2004 by David T. Olson

47. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use47 The Complete St. Louis Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

48. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use48 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

49. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use49 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Missouri Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.htm The Complete Kansas City Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm The Complete St. Louis Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Missouri, Kansas City & St. Louis Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MO0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MO0.htm