1. The Role of Computer Assisted Exercises as a Tool for Concept Development and Experimentation in Bulgarian Navy Transformation Dr. Velizar Shalamanov Ph.D. Student Nikolay Tomov Research Assoc. Irena Nikolova Ph.D. Student Nikolay Pavlov BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses IPP-BAS

2. Contents of presentation: Introduction. CDE process in Navy Transformation. Introduction. CDE process in Navy Transformation. New focus on CAX technology. New focus on CAX technology. Architecture of CAX support environment. Architecture of CAX support environment. Role of CAX in CDE. Role of CAX in CDE. CoE in OA capabilities in CAX support. CoE in OA capabilities in CAX support. Development of CoE in OA under SfP981149 project. Development of CoE in OA under SfP981149 project. Project management in CoE in OA and implementation of the current projects. Project management in CoE in OA and implementation of the current projects. Conclusion. Opportunities for cooperation between CoE, Navy, NATO / EU and Industry. Conclusion. Opportunities for cooperation between CoE, Navy, NATO / EU and Industry. BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

3. ImplementationPlan Concept Training Logistics Infrastructure Organisation People Doctrine Equipment Experimentation Modelling & Sim Research VerificationPlan Capability Capability Quantitative Qualitative Lessons Learned Observations Facts BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Concept Development - NATO View Feedback

4. NATO Experimentation “The process of exploring innovative methods to improve current capabilities and methods of operation, especially to assess the innovative method’s feasibility, utility, and limits.” BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

5. To inform Defence decision making To inform Defence decision making To provide compelling evidence for Change To provide compelling evidence for Change To reduce/understand Complexity and Risk To reduce/understand Complexity and Risk Limitations of other Analytical Techniques in: Limitations of other Analytical Techniques in:  Representing ‘Human Dimension’  Providing evidence for non Equipment interventions To produce objective, usable results as a result of an appropriate level of scientific rigour To produce objective, usable results as a result of an appropriate level of scientific rigour Why Conduct Experimentation? BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

6. Knowledge Requirements New Knowledge Real World Experiments Analytical Models Environment of executive decision making, studies, concept definition, op. planning, procurement Knowledge Requirements New Knowledge KnowledgeKnowledge Real World Experiments (Analytical) Models/Theories (OA) Studies Experimentation BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Model - Test - Model Paradigm

7. BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Concepts to Capability Parallel Development Model Concept Development Concept Refinement Capability Implementation FieldedCapability CapabilityConcept Analysis Modeling & Simulation SimulationExperi-ments Demon- strationsExercises Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities & Interoperability IDEA

8. BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES New focus on CAX technology The Knowledge and Networks revolution: Acceleration driven by market forces, COTS and commoditisation Acceleration driven by market forces, COTS and commoditisation Wide access to unprecedented computing power Wide access to unprecedented computing power Exponential growth in bandwidth, storage, software and connectivity, in tandem with reducing cost Exponential growth in bandwidth, storage, software and connectivity, in tandem with reducing cost New organisational, structural business models based on proliferation New organisational, structural business models based on proliferation Distribution ( of assets, nodes and computing power ) and decentralisation ( “edge” devices eg. peer-peer, machine-to- machine ) Distribution ( of assets, nodes and computing power ) and decentralisation ( “edge” devices eg. peer-peer, machine-to- machine )

9. CAX enable inexpensive gaming for great number of scenarios CAX enable inexpensive gaming for great number of scenarios CAX enable “simulation” of scenarios and missing players CAX enable “simulation” of scenarios and missing players CAX enable modeling of natural and dangerous process and phenomena CAX enable modeling of natural and dangerous process and phenomena CAX ease communications and mediation among all levels of public, private and authority relationship CAX ease communications and mediation among all levels of public, private and authority relationship CAX create conditions for quantitative “measurements” of group work and analysis CAX create conditions for quantitative “measurements” of group work and analysis Role of CAX in CD&E BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

10. Role of CAX in CD&E BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES CAX enable good “stimulation” of thinking and experimentation, as well good furnishing of documentary evidence trough the experimentation process CAX enable good “stimulation” of thinking and experimentation, as well good furnishing of documentary evidence trough the experimentation process CAX enable knowledge accumulation in time for different groups of participants, scenarios and periods CAX enable knowledge accumulation in time for different groups of participants, scenarios and periods CAX enable concept experimentation, technological demonstrations, testing of system architecture for decision making CAX enable concept experimentation, technological demonstrations, testing of system architecture for decision making

11. BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Architecture of CAX support environment Decision making and responds of Officials Documentation of Officials’ acts ScenarioSimulation Mapping in GIS the Scenario Development Planning and Costing Scenario Development Development Lessons Learned Analysis Customer

12. A nonmilitary cooperation activity under the Euro Atlantic Partnership Council A nonmilitary cooperation activity under the Euro Atlantic Partnership Council Projects are of a cooperative nature, jointly carried out by scientists and end users from NATO and Partner Countries Projects are of a cooperative nature, jointly carried out by scientists and end users from NATO and Partner Countries SfP 981149 “Operations Research Support to Force and Operations Planning in the New Security Environment” SfP 981149 “Operations Research Support to Force and Operations Planning in the New Security Environment” Project major purpose is building a library of models for an effective and timely scientific support in decision- making, CAX and MAX in Crisis Management Systems Project major purpose is building a library of models for an effective and timely scientific support in decision- making, CAX and MAX in Crisis Management Systems BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATO Science for Peace Programme

13. WG 4 BAS DSC Force Planning Acquisition Planning WG 5 CAX / MAX C4 Architecture WG 3 WG 6 SACP / MoD / MoI WG 7 End Users Emergency Management / Crisis Management WG2WG1 Center of Excellence BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Organizational structure of the CoE in OA IPP DSCIMI TNONOANC3ARTO AMoI

14. Parliament President Government MoD Civil Protection Other Agencies Center of Excellence in OA Crisis management Security Council Institutes of BAS / Universities Defense Industry / Other Industries Partners Customers BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Where is the Center of Excellence situated? MoI

15. WG1Infrastructure WG2 SW/Math tools WG3CAX WG4C4 WG5 Force Planning WG6 Acquisition / Logistic Training Center of Excellence WG7 Management/Reports NATO / EU Reporting Presentation to Users Internal Reporting MoE&S / MT&T BAS Budget SfP 981149 SfP 981922 CI2RCO, BIS21+ SACP MoD / MoI ARWs BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Project Management in the Center of Excellence

16. BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Center of Excellence Infrastructure

17. The Center of Excellence in the CDE/ATD process in support of Transformation BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Center of Excellence in OA Force Employment Offices Force Preparation Offices Offices AcquisitionOffices AcquisitionExperimentationAdvanced Technology TechnologyDemonstrationConceptDevelopment TransformationOffices DeploymentOperations Training / CAX Transformation Process … =>

18. Conclusion: Opportunities for cooperation between CoE, Navy, NATO / EU and Industry 1. Development of operational concept for Navy in NATO/EU environment and framework for BSR security cooperation 2. Development of ROC and Mission Capabilities Packages 3. Development of Navy Architecture and Naval C4 Architecture 4. Experimentation and Training through CAX 5. Acquisition Planning, ATD and testing through CAX 6. Logistics Planning and testing through CAX 7. Implementation planning for Navy integration and its management - certification through CAX BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES