1. Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Presentation to Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform 7 October 2014

2. International Developments & Inflation 2

3. Mixed picture among trading partners 3

4. 4 Source : Eurostat “lowflation” is prevailing in euro area

5. Core inflation in Ireland rising steadily since February 5

6. Real economy 6

7. Strength in retail sales has continued into Q3 7

8. Investment has been driven by ‘core’ M&E and construction 8

9. National accounts measure of goods exports very strong 9

10. Outlook and labour market 10

11. Endorsed Budget 2015 forecasts 11 Year-on-year change 201320142015 GDP0.24.73.6 GNP3.24.13.3 Nominal GDP (nearest €25m)174.8183.8193.0 Personal Consumption-0.81.72.2 Govt Consumption1.44.81.0 Investment-2.414.612.5 Exports1.18.34.8 Imports0.68.85.1 Domestic demand (pp cont)-0.73.63.3 Stocks (pp cont)0.3-0.1-0.2 Net exports (pp cont)0.61.30.8 HICP0.5 1.0 GDP Deflator1.00.41.3 Current a/c (% of GDP)4.44.94.6

12. Continued improvements in the labour market 12

13. Labour market outlook 13 201320142015 Employment growth 2.41.82.2 Agri 24.32.51.8 Industry (inc. B&C) 2.02.72.8 Services 1.21.72.1 Unemployment rate 13.111.410.2 Labour force growth0.4-0.10.9

14. Drivers of labour market outlook 14

15. 15 Summary Recovery is gaining momentum and widening Forecasts are being revised upwards for this year and next No-policy-change assumption is made for these forecasts – Subject to revision on Budget day

16. 16 Risks External – Geo-political tensions – Weak growth and low inflation in the euro area – Financial market risks Domestic – Potential for more rapid recovery in investment

17. End 17