1. The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene therephthalate) (PET) Snezana Krstic University of Belgrade Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy Serbia e-mail: snezana@tmf.bg.ac.yu

2. Industry of polymer materials Manufacturing sector Recovery sector Production sector Polymer resins, granulate Products –solids, films, fibers, … Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy

3. Industry of polymer materials  Abut 100 million tons per year  Consumption rising steadily  Tailor-made materials meet most advanced technological requirements Increasingly dynamic business sector

4. Industry of polymer materials Global economic downturn related to petrochemical feedstock prices Environmental pressures Legislative measures Market fluctuations ….. Challenges

5. Industry of polymer materials to estimate market and industrial trends new applications environmental challenges ….. Response to challanges FTA Future oriented technology analysis

6. Economic forecast for polymer industry Upstream markets Downstream markets  New investments in capacity  Ratio between production-manufacturing-recovery capacities  Economic incentives  Fast growing markets in Asia  Resin market trends – supply and demand  Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations  Oil prices New applications Technological innovation

7. PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate)  Food and packaging industry  Textile industry  Electronics  Automotive sector Excellent barrier properties Engineering material Relatively low price Good recyclability Mechanical (material melting) Chemical (chemical or thermal decomposition) Energy recovery (incineration)

8. PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate) Rapid market growth

9. Forecasting PET market trends Forecasted2.48 million tons Realover 3.2 million tons 1995

10. Forecasting PET market trends Environmental impact a clear message As much as we can expect growth of consumption, in reality it can be even higher Large volume of waste

11. FTA impact on policy Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and volume of waste Full landfills Environmental awareness on waste management Policy measures worldwide

12. EU policy related to polymer waste management Several directives and proposals concerning: Packaging and packaging waste End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste Electric and electronic equipment waste Waste landfilling

13. EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) Plastics: Recovery 50 % Recycling 15% Various national management approaches to meet the targets New technologies, new capacities RESULT Increased recovery and recycling rates Germany – “manufacturer responsibility Austria – industry pays collection France – “shared responsibility Belgium – eco-tax Netherlands – all users pay ………

14. EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) Increasing consumption Stagnation in recycling rates With the same recovery capacity larger portion of waste for landfilling New challenge Forecasted New tough proposal for the Directive Recovery 60 % Recycling 22.5 %

15. FTA impact on policy - USA FDA – Food and drugs administration Focus on application of recycled materials for new bottles Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb Technological innovation Product design Recycling processes

16. FTA impact on technological innovation Forecasts concerning consumption and waste increase Innovations in recycling - Innovated technologies for mechanical and chemical recycling - Designing products more suitable for recycling - New applications for recycled materials Sustainability condition

17. FTA impact on technological innovation Forecasts concerning market saturations Innovations for virgin products Better oxygen-barrier properties Hot filling Sophisticated product designs

18. FTA impact on technological innovation in various business environments  Large petrochemical complexes – innovations related to chemical and thermal decomposition of material  Manufacturing companies – innovations related to savings in materials for bottle production  SMEs – innovations related to product design and new applications

19. Impact on developing countries Raising environmental awareness Different pathways Rise in investments in capacities in various developing countries

20. Summary FTA Production Manufacture Recovery New applic. Market growth Legislation Technol. innovation PET

21. Conclusions All dimension are crucial Future advancement of FTA deeper understanding of qualitative information, their proper interpretation and integration into the process Technology Economy Social issues Environment PET FTA