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- 1 - Presentation to the Convention Partnership Boston Massachusetts July 14, 2010 Headquarters Hotel Market Study DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 2 - HVS role and purpose of study HVS is the leading global hospitality consulting firm Conduct thousands of studies each year Established methods of hotel analysis Use Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice HVS provides an independent forecast of hotel operations No ongoing interest in project No advocacy role The HVS “Market Study” provides Starting point for financing analysis Partial basis for policy decision on project No opinion of feasibility DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 3 - Methodology and Market Study Process Site Inspection Market Area Analysis Forecast “Market” Performance ADR and Occupancy Penetration* Hotel Supply/Demand Forecast Financial Operations * By market segment: 1) commercial, 2) group, 3) leisure CC Demand Analysis DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 4 - I. Overview of Results DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 5 - Options Studied # of Rooms Hotel Function Space SF BCEC Ballroom Expansion Stabilized Occupancy Stabilized ADR Stabilized NOI 11,00083,000No71%$245$30.8 M 21,00083,000Yes74%$245$33.1 M 31,200100,000No69%$245$35.2 M 41,200100,000Yes73%$245$38.8 M DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 6 - Ten-year net operating income forecasts for each of 4 development scenarios DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 7 - Has HVS properly identified and weighted the importance of the competition for the proposed hotel? DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 8 - Competitive Set Property # of Rooms Year Affiliated Year Opened Renaissance Boston Waterfront Hotel*471Feb 2008 InterContinental Boston*424Nov 2006 Westin Boston Waterfront*793Jun 2006 The Seaport Hotel*426May 1998 Hyatt Regency Boston498Jun 2003Jun 1985 Westin Copley Place Boston803Jun 1984 Marriott Boston Copley Place1,139May 1984 Hilton Boston Back Bay390Nov 1982 Sheraton Hotel Boston1,216Jun 1965 Boston Park Plaza Hotel941Jun 1998Jun 1927 Omni Parker House551Jun 1985Jan 1900 Primary Competitors* 2,114 rooms Secondary Competitor 5,538 Total Comp Set 7,652 rooms DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 9 - Location of Competitive Hotels DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 10 - Historical Trends in Supply and Demand Source: Smith Travel Research DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 11 - Competitors Historical Performance Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR Source: Smith Travel Research DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 12 - Are the HVS forecasts of future growth in the hotel market consistent with historical patterns of growth during periods of economic recovery? DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 13 - National Perspective Source: Smith Travel Research DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 14 - Comparison of historical room night demand to forecasted recovery (annual % change) DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 15 - Forecast change in demand growth (annual % change) DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 16 - Are the HVS assumptions of rate and occupancy penetration of the proposed hotel reasonable? Baseline Scenario 1000 Rooms No Ballroom Expansion DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 17 - HVS estimated market penetration for each of three demand segments DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 18 - Forecast of occupancy penetration rates by market segment in stabilized year Market Occupancy = 75% Subject Occupancy = 71% DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 19 - Subject Property’s Average Daily Rate Penetration in $ 2008 ADR Competitors Primary Competitors$216.21 Secondary Competitors$202.74 Total$207.60 Subject Property Average Rate Penetration98.7% Subject Property ADR$205.00 DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 20 - Occupancy Rate Comparison: Subject Property vs. Market DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 21 - Average Daily Rate Comparison: Subject vs. Competitive Market DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 22 - Projected Stabilized Occupancies (2017) ScenarioMarketSubject 1) 1000 rooms no expansion 75%71% 2) 1000 rooms with expansion 77%74% 3) 1200 rooms no expansion 74%69% 4) 1200 rooms with expansion 76%73% DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 23 - Are the forecasts of operating revenue and expense consistent with the performance of similar hotel properties? Baseline Scenario 1000 Rooms No Ballroom Expansion DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 24 - House profit - revenue per available room in 2009 dollars DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 25 - House profit - revenue per occupied room night in 2009 dollars DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 26 - House profit - % of total revenue DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 27 - Stabilized Year Income and Expenses (2017) Total (in thousands) Total Revenues$104,699 Total Departmental Expenses(44,346) Total Undistributed Operating Expenses(21,268) House Profit39,085 Insurance(913) Management Fees(3,141) Amount Available for Debt Service35,031 Other Fixed Charges(4,188) NET INCOME$30,843 DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 28 - What are the key risk factors in future hotel performance? DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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- 29 - Key Risk Factors* Risks that can be managed Project completion (BCEC and hotel on budget - on time) Adequate marketing effort Competent management and labor agreements Neighborhood development Uncontrollable Risks Market performance – slower than forecast economic growth Geopolitical New supply *Risks are not limited to these items. Reader is advised to read the HVS report in its entirety for a more complete discussion of risk factors, assumptions and limiting conditions. DRAFT FOR POLICY DISCUSSION ONLY
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