1. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE How can Evidence Reviews make a difference to practice? Hot-spotting and displacement Professor Kate Bowers Prof Shane Johnson, Dr Rob Guerrette, Dr Lucia Summers and Dr Suzanne Poynton Department of Security and Crime Science University College London (UCL)

2. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Overview How do we know whether geographical focused policing approaches prevent crime? –Available evidence If it works how do we know that it doesn’t just move crime elsewhere? –Available evidence Strengths and weakness of different approaches to evidence synthesis

3. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Different Types of Evidence from Individual Evaluations The Maryland Scale for Evaluating Crime Prevention Source: Sherman et al. (1998) Level 1: Correlation between a crime prevention programme and a measure of crime or crime risk factors at a single point in time Level 2: Temporal sequence between the programme and the crime or risk outcome clearly observed, or the presence of a comparison group without demonstrated comparability to the treatment group. Level 3: A comparison between two or more comparable units of analysis, one with and one without the programme. Level 4: Comparison between multiple units with and without the programme, controlling for other factors, or using comparison units that evidence only minor differences. Level 5: Random assignment and analysis of comparable units to programme and comparison groups

4. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE RCT in crime prevention: An example Braga, Anthony A., David L. Weisburd, Elin J. Waring, Lorraine Green Mazerolle, William Spelman, and Francis Gajewski. "Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment." Criminology 37, no. 3 (August 1999). RCT design –56 high violence places (blocks) identified. –Matched into 28 pairs for evaluation purposes –Police selected 12 pairs for random allocation. –A coin was flipped to assign each in the pair to action/control Treatment was a collection of specific problem- oriented tactics that could be broadly categorised as ‘policing disorder’ strategy. Data source –Crime incident report data and citizen emergency calls for service Analysis Model (GLM) log(count of crime events in post-test) = Intercept + (effect due to group) + (effect due to block) + log(count of crime events in pre-test) + error.

5. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Braga et al 1999

6. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Synthesising the evaluations: Braga et al 2012 Police-led efforts to control crime hotspots: –Directed patrol –Heightened traffic enforcement –Aggressive disorder enforcement –Problem-oriented policing Outcome –Crime incident reports –Calls for service –Arrest data 19 eligible studies –89.5% USA –73% Peer reviewed journals –52.6% RCT designs

7. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Synthesising the results: Braga et al 2012

8. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Mediators and moderators Mediators are intermediate variables –E.g. X→Y→Z They can help to give clues concerning the causal chain of events A moderator refers to a context for efficacy variation –E.g G1: X→Y1; G2: X→Y2 Moderators may refer to subgroups, e.g. sex, or settings, e.g. demonstration vs mainstream programmes More and more studies are needed! –Mediator/moderator measurement foresight is needed –Currently in programmes for children, for example, ‘The use of moderators is sporadic and vague at best’ (Petrosino 2000, quoted in Pawson) –But still causal mechanisms, processes and programme modification/change are all overlooked

9. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Moderators: Braga et al 2012

10. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE What about displacement/ diffusion? Criticisms that focused policing efforts do not address the “root causes” of crime Displacement is the relocation of crime from one place, time, target, offense, tactic or offender to another as a result of some crime prevention initiative Of the six possible types spatial displacement is the form most commonly recognized (Eck, 1993) At the extreme, widespread displacement stands to undermine the effects of geographically focused policing actions

11. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Background Emerging research suggests that crime displacement is rarely total At the other end of the displacement continuum is the phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits Two (or more) mechanisms (Clarke and Weisburd, 1994): –Deterrence - a carryover effect; offenders perceive that there is an elevated risk of detection and arrest –Discouragement – offenders perceive that the effort exceeds anticipated rewards Police and others often assume a homogenous group of motivated offenders

12. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Braga et al 1999

13. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Synthesising the results: The need for a review While noted experiments on the extent of displacement and diffusion following focused policing efforts, a systematic appraisal of all the available evidence does not exist Literature Reviews: –Barr and Pease, 1990; Eck, 1993; and Hesseling, 1994 No systematic review of diffusion of benefit (Weisburd et al 2006) A review of displacement and diffusion effects among situational crime prevention (SCP) (Guerette and Bowers, 2009)

14. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Bowers et al 2011: Spatial Displacement and Diffusion of Benefit among Geographically Focused Policing Initiatives Inclusion criteria Study must evaluate a focused policing intervention –Hotspot policing/ directed patrol –Police crackdown –Problem-oriented/ Intelligence-led policing project –Community policing intervention –Broken windows/ compstat approaches –Civil injunctions/ civil remedy –Police-led environmental improvement

15. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Inclusion criteria Quantitative measure of crime –For both the ‘Treatment’ area and a displacement/diffusion ‘catchment’ area –Pre and post (or pre and during) measures necessary –Those without a control area were considered Not included in the meta-analysis Intervention was ‘geographically focused’ to a local area –Very large scale not included (e.g. Entire city) –A series of ‘types’ of area Census blocks, police zones/beats/divisions/precincts, estates, districts, suburbs, block areas, series of roads, neighbourhoods

16. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Inclusion criteria Any point in time and any location Study written in English Both published and unpublished studies included Article reported original research findings –Not meta-analysis or reviews –Where same project reported in multiple places most detailed study used

17. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Search Strategy A keyword search of electronic abstract databases A review of bibliographies of existing displacement reviews (e.g. Barr and Pease, 1990; Eck, 1993; Hesseling, 1994; Guerette and Bowers, 2009) and reviews of the effectiveness of focused policing initiatives (e.g. Braga,2007; Weisburd et al., 2008). Forward searches for works that have cited key displacement publications A review of research reports of professional research and policing organizations Hand search of pertinent journals A specific Boolean search term

18. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE In the meta-analysis

19. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Hierarchy of Evidence

20. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Narrative Review 55% of the studies reported finding no spatial displacement; compared to 39% who did find evidence. Diffusion of benefit was found in 43% of studies and not in 5%. For the remaining 7% (displacement) and 52% (diffusion) of studies respectively, outcomes are unknown mainly due to the fact that they were not explicitly examined by the study authors

21. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Meta-analysis Pre/post counts of crime for 2/3/4 areas commonly reported In some cases it is possible to calculate/convert figures to get these counts Odds Ratio calculations used to estimate ES and CIs for BOTH treatment area and catchment area Only possible where numbers are available for a suitable control area Random effects model used for mean ES –Many studies have more than one observation for the same treatment area

22. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Best case scenario (N=16)

23. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Worst case scenario (N=15*)

24. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE All effect sizes (N=52)

25. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Pop studies

26. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Focused policing alone

27. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Context and Mechanism Context and mechanism (Pawson and Tilley 1997, Pawson 2006) –descriptive analysis of the extent to which displacement and diffusion is found by the authors across a number of different contexts. –Diffusion was found slightly more often by POP-based initiatives than those representing increased police presence in areas (47% vs 39%); – by those using data from sources other than recorded crime (56% vs 40%); – those with larger physical area coverage (50% for large, 33% for medium and 36% for small); –those conducted in Australia compared to the US and the UK (67%, 43% and 40% respectively)

28. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Theoretical Centrality In many cases (59%) -but by no means all of them - the research was informed by prior research or theory concerning the possibility that crime might be displaced. Degree of variation in terms of how centrally the issue of displacement was examined; in 18 (41%) of cases it was centrally examined; in 10 cases there was a brief discussion; it was examined peripherally in 7 cases and undertaken as post-hoc analysis in a further 7 studies.

29. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Braga et al 2012 also measured displacement…

30. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE A final word on Evidence RCTs –High standard of internal validity: good quality experiments –Often external validity is limited Do not always consider or document context Very seldom consider mechanism (the way in which intervention X works in situation Y) Often take implementation success as a given (like in medical trials) Meta-analysis –Is only one synthesis approach –Has the advantage of transparency –Tends to favour quantitative evidence and RCTs

31. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Conclusions Results suggest that on average geographically focused policing initiatives for which data were available were: –associated with significant reductions in crime and disorder –overall, changes in catchment areas are non-significant but there is a trend in favour of a diffusion of benefit –For successful interventions, there is a diffusion of benefit and the mean effect is statistically significant –For RCTs, there is a diffusion of benefit and the mean effect is statistically significant Results for subgroups – POP studies are more effective at controlling crime in hot spots than traditional policing techniques –POP studies slightly more likely to diffuse benefit than focused policing alone, interventions that cover large or small areas as likely to diffuse benefits

32. UCL DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY AND CRIME SCIENCE Using the evidence in practice Focusing police efforts on hot spots is worthwhile There is no evidence that it will lead to problems elsewhere POP seems to be particularly promising from the range of available approaches Sharing evidence should help determine the right type of intervention for a particular context and any implementation issues to be aware of.