1. WFO OKX – Topics in WDM Michael L. Ekster Severe Weather Warning Technology Workshop 12 July 2005

2. Area of Responsibility 2005 Population: 18.6 million (6.3% US Pop)

3. Major Programs Public Aviation Marine Hydrology Severe Weather Hazmat/Terrorism Fire Weather Upper Air Tropical

4. Issues during an event Largest media market in the world NYC OEM needs constant updates Spotter reports - Almost 100 phone calls PER HOUR Office has been short staffed for the last 3 years Below average experience (especially on Radar)

5. Issues... Never enough AWIPS workstations - 9 Tafs (3 major hubs) – almost need 2 forecasters for Tafs alone - Warnings - Statements - At least one forecast desk for routine product updates (what if a watch is issued?) - Public Service - Mesoanalysis? - Sectorization? (huge marine community!)

6. Issues… Forecaster to population ratio -One forecaster per 1.86 million people WFO OKX gets hit from all sides – 12 months of the year - Severe convective events - Winter storms - Tropical threat - Hazmat - Busiest aviation City in the world - Very large marine community Given weather threats and population, could very well be the most stressful FO in the country Help?

7. Radar/WDM Issues Sampling problems -Average height of lowest radar slice in the region of the CWA that usually receives worst convective weather is 7-12 kft

8. Radar/WDM Issues Pulse severe thunderstorms - Frequent occurrence - Can be deadly due to pop. density - One pulse tstm anywhere in the cwa can adversely affect 100k+ people - Need to find a way to achieve better lead times (especially over the most urbanized areas) - 5 minute lead times are nearly worthless here

9. Radar/WDM Issues Urban flooding - Some areas of NYC develop flash flooding with rainfall rates of less than 1”/hr. - Some areas of NYC can take a lot more - Rainfall estimations/Z-R relationships continue to be a challenge for many - Significant subway flooding Summer ’04 – no FFW! Worst event for the city since 9/11 Hydroview - Does not update in a timely manner (~ every 3 hours during an event) - Someone has to call the gages – takes away from doing other important tasks

10. Training is key Technology generally works, but is only as good the user! Must train staff on mesoscale processes and analysis of them – much better situational awareness AWOC/DLOC excellent courses, but how much is really relevant to Northeast severe weather? - Storm scale signatures not as classic here - Big consequences still do result – population - WES makes up for some of this, but how about an AWOC type course for Eastern U.S. WFOs? - Focus on mesoanalysis and storm scale signatures would be excellent

17. 12z 08Aug99 OKX sounding

18. 0-3 km CAPE Very low LCL Sounding modified for conditions immediately on the cool side of the boundary

19. Modified 0-6 km hodograph – storm motion and SFC winds