1. Enrolment Demand in the GTA Presentation to APPC Planning Forum Glenn Craney Executive Director Office of Institutional Research and Analysis January 2008

2. York has seen Significant Growth Over The Past Decade Source: OIRA

3. All Universities Have Experienced Significant Undergraduate Growth Source: MTCU

4. Little Change in Program Mix

5. Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada

6. Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada 7% increase over the past decade

7. Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada 7% increase over the past decade Double Cohort Year

8. Looking Forward – Traditional University Aged Population will Continue to Grow Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance

9. Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. Source: OIRA

10. Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. High Scenario ( +0.7% part rate pa) +35% increase + 125,000 Students Source: OIRA

11. Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. High Scenario ( +0.7% part rate pa) +35% increase + 125,000 Students Low Scenario (+0.35% part rate pa) +22 % increase + 78,000 Students Source: OIRA

12. Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Ontario Average +1%

13. Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Outside GTA - 11% Due to low birth rates

14. Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance GTA Growth + 15% Fueled by Immigration

15. Provincial Analysis – 55% of Students from the GTA attend GTA universities Source: 2005 OUAC

16. Provincial Analysis – Over 90% Of Students Outside The GTA Attend Non-GTA Area Universities Source: 2005 OUAC

17. Regional Analysis - Peel And York Regions Represents Two Thirds Of The Projected Growth Durham – 5% growth or 2,000 to 2,600 enrolments York Region – 33% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments Peel Region – 26% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments Toronto 4% growth or 2,000 to 6,000 enrolments

18. Regional Analysis - York draws heavily from York Region Participation rates across Peel, York, Durham and Toronto: A large proportion of York Region students attend York University. York University Ryerson University University of Toronto

19. Projected Growth Required for GTA Universities to Maintain Share of GTA Enrolments Source: OIRA Low Scenario +42,000 Students High Scenario + 60,000 Students

20. Research on New Canadians Source: OIRA, Academica Research