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Published byHunter Thrapp Modified over 9 years ago
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PRESENTED BYIN PARTNERSHIP WITH
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Industry Macro Trends Commercial OE New AT/BA Aircraft OEMs Many New Platform/Upgrade Initiatives Commercial Aftermarket Flight Hours Growing Changing Operator Business Practices Aircraft Demographics Changing Defense & Space Traditional ‘Big Program Spending’ Declines Needs Shifting From Conventional to “Hybrid” Industry Implications Emergence of More Customer-Competitor Hybrids Traditional Customers Evolving Parts Supply/Availability Must Meet Recovering Demand Operators Value Safety & Efficiency Improvements Growth of Surplus Asset Channels Must Innovate Affordably In “Pay To Play” R&D Model Leverage Commercial Solutions in D&S Sector Expansion of New Spaces (Asymmetric Warfare, UAS) Changing Market Landscapes
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Industry Outlook
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Total Flight Hours Growth Double-digit growth
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New AT&R Aircraft Deliveries Following a 2-3 year downturn, Air Transport volumes resume growth in 2011
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The AT&R OEM Evolution Consolidation Non-commercially viable entities were absorbed or disappeared Globalization Players entering with captive markets Development and Proliferation Commercial-based and state-sponsored entities flourished - many national champions & a regulated airline industry supported demand Consolidation (?) and The New World Order Winners will emerge, likely tied to technology, growing economies and government 195019802000 20202040
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Five-Year Purchase Plans for New Business Jets 2010 purchase plans at 30% Operators cautious about slow pace of economic recovery
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Business Jet Purchase Expectations by Region Significant global demand still present – Asia, Middle East/Africa, Europe more cautious off record 2009 plans
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Regional Demand for New B&GA Jets in Next 5 Years International share of demand 42%
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B&GA Outlook Summary Delivery down cycle continues in 2010, 2011 marks bottom of cycle: – Less volatility in OEM rates, but order rates remain soft – Large cabin class aircraft faring better Some recovery in purchasing in 2011: – Economic growth expectations are positive but cautious– especially in emerging regions – Projected dollar depreciation will have positive impact on International sales – Recovery in new aircraft deliveries will begin in late 2011 or 2012, orders a year earlier Pipeline of new models still important for longer-term growth Recovery progressing in fleet utilization, slower improvement in used aircraft
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Key Industry Implications A number of business models will be challenged … must adapt Marketing analytics will be more important … place the right bets Supply base performance expectations will heighten Technology cycles will be shorter, requiring nimble business/engineering/supply chain Technology leadership will be difficult due to lack of science/math orientation
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