1. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Exploiting Market Realities to Address National Security’s High-Performance Computing Needs Mark D. Hill Computer Sciences Department University of Wisconsin--Madison (Modified 01/00 for IDA-Bowie)

2. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Bottom Line Recommendations –Avoid directed procurement –Exploit clusters –Provide sustained funding to academia –Build the high-performance computing (HPC) market Talk Outline –HPC is important to national security –History: PVPs and MPPs –Future: Clusters –Four Recommendations –Summary

3. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison HPC is Important to National Security HPC is the upper extreme of computing –Supercomputers, etc., costing $10M-$100M HPC delivers for some important problems –Breaking encoded messages (NSA) –Nuclear stockpile stewardship (e.g., LANL) (without nuclear testing) Requirements –Trillions of operations per second (tera ops) –Trillions of characters of semiconductor memory (terabytes) –10 15 characters on disks & tapes (petabytes)

4. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison History: Parallel Vector Processors (PVPs) E.g., 1980s supercomputers from Cray Research –custom processors (i.e., no microprocessor) Assessment –Were ideal for NSA and LANL in 1980s –Sales hurt for “killer micros” –E.g., Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) buys Cray in 1995 Cray-1

5. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison History: Massively Parallel Processors (MPPs) E.g., Cray T3D, Intel Paragon, & Thinking Machines CM-5 in early 1990s –Replicated identical hardware (especially microprocessors) –But specialized software –Integrated computer vendor Assessment –High-end HPC market stalls (see next slide) –Big companies lose interest in HPC –Small companies go out of business TMC CM-5

6. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison HPC Market in Billions US$ [IDC99]

7. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Future: Clusters Clusters of “Nodes” –Nodes: PCs to commercial servers –Networks: connect nodes with standard network to custom “system area network” –Cluster software: optional software that makes cluster appear more like an MPP –Clusters are a big part of DOE’s Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI)

8. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Future: Clusters, continued Nodes –Commercially viable PC or server nodes? (You get what you pay for) –Available from multiple vendors –Insures sustained availability Network –Commodity LAN? –Specialized SAN? –You get what you pay for –Need to port to new LAN/SAN every few years Use middleware to rise above the details (e.g., MPI)

9. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Future: Clusters, continued Software –Need to port to new cluster every few years –Think about the performance lost from software not working in the first 1.5 years of a cluster’s 3-year life Use shrink-wrapped software whenever possible Use standard languages & libraries For custom software: K.I.S.S. Integration -- Creating a “Computer System” –Hardest problem (done by MPP computer vendor) –Select & deploy network hardware, network protocols, middleware, application library, debuggers, etc. –Who does integration? Customer? 3rd party?

10. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Recommendation 1: Forget “Procurement” Can’t buy HPC like bombers or carriers –Computer technology moves too fast for contractor mentality (two times the performance in two years) Time lags too long Specifications too detailed –Can’t depend on sustained government commitment (post cold war) –Can’t depend on one company (or a few) large - “zero billion dollar market” small - out of business

11. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Recommendation 2: Exploit Clusters Government should buy Clusters –Customer (e.g., NSA or LANL) Is responsible for mission Should be responsible for cluster integration –But Sub-contracting integration? Avoiding duplication of effort? –Many technical problems Clusters are like Churchill view of democracy “Democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”

12. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Recommendaton 3: Fund Academia (Warning: I have a bias here) Sustained funding of academia to develop new HPC ideas (as we have done in the past) –Not just Kuhnian paradigm shifts (DARPA) –Not just “trickle down” (DOE ASCI) –The country reaps what it sows

13. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Recommendation 4: Build HPC Market Government should encourage private HPC customers to reduce mismatch between needs of government and private sector –Demonstration projects –Personnel exchanges –High risk but high payoff –Unbounded potential in Biology

14. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Bottom Line Recommendations –Avoid directed procurement –Exploit clusters –Provide sustained funding to academia –Build the high-performance computing (HPC) market –10 issues in white paper Acknowledgements –DSSG: Gould, Licato, Major, Roberts, colleagues, & mentors –IDA or CCS: Brenner, Carlson, Draper, Feustal, Greenberg, & Mayfield –LANL: Cerutti, Lee, Luo, McCoy, Thompson, Reynders, Wasseman, Watson, & White –NSA: Powers / DARPA: DSSG sponsorship & Hendler –NSF, Compaq, IBM, Intel, & Sun: my Wisconsin research sponsorship

15. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Complete Recommendations (1 of 2) Don’t direct one or a few computer vendors to build PVPs or MPPs (like bombers or carriers) Do provide money for government to buy HPC machines (like ASCI but it’s not sufficient) Encourage HPC customers to take responsibility for cluster integration Appealing to industry patriotism will not work Provide some money to computing vendors to build better HPC machines

16. IDA Defense Science Study Group 11/99Mark D. Hill, University of Wisconsin-Madison Complete Recommendations (2 of 2) Expose industry to HPC potential (pilot projects & personnel exchanges; consider biology) Expose academia to HPC potential (pilot projects & personnel exchanges; consider biology) Provide sustained HPC funding to academia Provide HPC benchmarks to academia Provide some money to academia to buy HPC machines to build better HPC machines